Marylanders strongly support gun control proposals, poll finds

Norton · Jan 14, 2013

threads merged.

EL1227 · Jan 14, 2013

smokey0118 said:
looks like the anti-trolls are taking turns in the comments section. It's was elcid's turn and now I think mojosfun is going for the "king dumbass" crown

I named elcid89 and IsabellsF "Macho Libre and Cinday Lauper" mojosfun is Capt. Lou Albano. It's the tag team match of the century against Capt. America and his sidekick 2A

One thing to take note of is this ...

OpinionWorks has totally changed their website overnight, removing their list of 'progressive clients' and making their business presentation a softer, gentler one. However, you can still find residule content on the internet Wayback Machine. GreenBook, an internet listing of market research firms, still has a partial client list.

They can run, but they can't hide.

Their corporate moto used to be "Finding Insights That Bring Results", now it's "Understand the attitudes and perceptions of the public. Know how to engage your audience." More like, manipulate the sheeple with slanted polling results and unsubstantiated data.

OpinionWorks and The Baltimore Sunpapers jumped the shark on this one.

Anyone else commenting should call this out loud and clear. Subscribers to the Sunpapers are being duped.

BRONZ · Jan 14, 2013

As soon as I read Baltimore Sun I stopped reading.

erwos · Jan 14, 2013

R357 said:
My issue here is that the sample size is no where near the 3.5% percentage indicated by Tyeraxus post nor does 0.00013793% of a population (800 of 5.8mil) guarantee of confidence interval of 95%as implied.

I wish I could be more clear here, so let me say it how it is: from a statistics perspective, it is the equivalent of denying the value of 2+2=4 because you don't know what "+" or "=" means, and you're really sure in your gut it should be 2+2=22. It is really, really embarrassing to see our community showing this kind of ignorance and then ignoring the people trying to help them understand because they don't like the results they're hearing.

The sample size is not supposed to be "3.5%" of the population. Polling 800 truly random voters in Maryland resulted in these results +-3.5%, and there is a ~95% chance the results are true within those limits. There's no bias in how these numbers were calculated; you plug them into a basic statistics equation and get results back.

Valid criticisms and questions are:
1. What were the questions? Were they loaded?
2. What was the polling method? Was it truly random?

Kimerazor · Jan 14, 2013

People should be asked, "do you want the result of a law for 'no gun' zones?

Chicago = 500+ murders last year...more than most states. Do you really want this?

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smokey · Jan 14, 2013

Looks like the anti's arguing on there are starting to openly admit they're trolls working for the anti-gun campaigns.

Seagrave1963 · Jan 14, 2013

erwos said:
I wish I could be more clear here, so let me say it how it is: from a statistics perspective, it is the equivalent of denying the value of 2+2=4 because you don't know what "+" or "=" means, and you're really sure in your gut it should be 2+2=22. It is really, really embarrassing to see our community showing this kind of ignorance and then ignoring the people trying to help them understand because they don't like the results they're hearing.

The sample size is not supposed to be "3.5%" of the population. Polling 800 truly random voters in Maryland resulted in these results +-3.5%, and there is a ~95% chance the results are true within those limits. There's no bias in how these numbers were calculated; you plug them into a basic statistics equation and get results back.

Valid criticisms and questions are:
1. What were the questions? Were they loaded?
2. What was the polling method? Was it truly random?

Would another valid concern be "Where do the respondents live?" or was that what you intended from the "random" question?

In general, Montgomery County has a different value system than the Eastern Shore. Would that affect the poll?

erwos · Jan 14, 2013

Seagrave1963 said:
Would another valid concern be "Where do the respondents live?" or was that what you intended from the "random" question?

That is what I meant. But, honestly, I'd be a little shocked if they were systematically screwing up like that... the protocol for doing random sampling of a population of people is well-known and -established.

The most likely scenario is that this poll is correctly measuring the feelings of Marylanders on the questions is being asked. No, that's not a good thing for us, but denial is not going to help the cause. The questions may be loaded, but it's still cover for politicians to act.

IMHO, the most interesting part of the WaPo article was where there was a minor Democratic rebellion over retroactive licensing requirements. We may be in better shape than we think, or so I hope.

Seagrave1963 · Jan 14, 2013

Thanks for the follow-up erwos. I know little about polling and have wondered how info is collected and then disseminated.

R357 · Jan 14, 2013

erwos said:
I wish I could be more clear here, so let me say it how it is: from a statistics perspective, it is the equivalent of denying the value of 2+2=4 because you don't know what "+" or "=" means, and you're really sure in your gut it should be 2+2=22. It is really, really embarrassing to see our community showing this kind of ignorance and then ignoring the people trying to help them understand because they don't like the results they're hearing.

The sample size is not supposed to be "3.5%" of the population. Polling 800 truly random voters in Maryland resulted in these results +-3.5%, and there is a ~95% chance the results are true within those limits. There's no bias in how these numbers were calculated; you plug them into a basic statistics equation and get results back.

Valid criticisms and questions are:
1. What were the questions? Were they loaded?
2. What was the polling method? Was it truly random?

Your proposition is based on a perfect distributed sampling,(random as you refered to it), however not with standing other factors such bears an objective relationship to the sampleing percentage of the population. If you are going to continue to defend a contradictory study based on assumptions the the polled population was ideal, and then contradict yourself by calling into question if the sample group was ideal, then maybe you could kindly refrain from calling others ignorant.

Bohlieve410 · Jan 14, 2013

The only opinion that counts is MoCo, PG, Bmore, Howard. And even then only "designated areas" of those places count anyways. They wouldn't get the same results polling in Poolesville, Brandywine or Taylorsville that they would in Rockville, Landover or Columbia. Some animals are more equal than others.

Ellegon · Jan 14, 2013

edleary1227 said:
I named elcid89 and IsabellsF "Macho Libre and Cinday Lauper" mojosfun is Capt. Lou Albano. It's the tag team match of the century against Capt. America and his sidekick 2A

One thing to take note of is this ...

OpinionWorks has totally changed their website overnight, removing their list of 'progressive clients' and making their business presentation a softer, gentler one. However, you can still find residule content on the internet Wayback Machine. GreenBook, an internet listing of market research firms, still has a partial client list.

They can run, but they can't hide.

Their corporate moto used to be "Finding Insights That Bring Results", now it's "Understand the attitudes and perceptions of the public. Know how to engage your audience." More like, manipulate the sheeple with slanted polling results and unsubstantiated data.

OpinionWorks and The Baltimore Sunpapers jumped the shark on this one.

Anyone else commenting should call this out loud and clear. Subscribers to the Sunpapers are being duped.

I've had many conversations with elcid. I believe he works in some capacity for Gansler. He's avoided a direct answer,but I believe he's part of the problem. Go back and re-read his responses. They sometimes state "we're working on this or we're looking into that".Be very careful with him I believe he is dangerous to our cause!!!

dirtybird · Jan 14, 2013

RLBosley said:
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bs-md-gun-poll-20130113,0,835835.story?track=rss

So... if the state gov plays out like this poll indicates, then we are in for some rough times.

Anybody that doesn't think there is going to AWB in MD very soon and a mag capacity law is delusional. Really it's a wonder there was not one all along. Plan on it. Will not be surprised if it is made retro on the mags, (ie you have a year or so to sell or destroy them then flat illegal like the MA law. The numbers of fools willing to give up their rights for some imagined safety are overwhelming in MD. Good news is, there are lots of states that are stacked the other way.

canuckboy · Jan 14, 2013

So sad!

kohburn · Jan 14, 2013

R357 said:
My issue here is that the sample size is no where near the 3.5% percentage indicated by Tyeraxus post nor does 0.00013793% of a population (800 of 5.8mil) guarantee of confidence interval of 95%as implied.

it is not 3.5% sampling - it is a (if truly random and proper sampling) a rsult within a 3.5% error of the result from polling 100% of the population.

so if done correctly the poll result of 46% with a 3.5% error is really 42.5%-49.5%

this poll could be simply scewed by the fact that conservatives tend to not like answering polls, etc...

R357 · Jan 14, 2013

kohburn said:
it is not 3.5% sampling - it is a (if truly random and proper sampling) a rsult within a 3.5% error of the result from polling 100% of the population.

so if done correctly the poll result of 46% with a 3.5% error is really 42.5%-49.5%

this poll could be simply scewed by the fact that conservatives tend to not like answering polls, etc...

I understand the above, my comment was directed to the original presentation of the percentage by tyeraxus.

erwos · Jan 14, 2013

R357 said:
Your proposition is based on a perfect distributed sampling,(random as you refered to it), however not with standing other factors such bears an objective relationship to the sampleing percentage of the population.

Try rewriting this into English that other people can understand, please. The method described should produce perfectly valid statistical results in the state of Maryland, as it has umpteen million times before.

If you are going to continue to defend a contradictory study based on assumptions the the polled population was ideal, and then contradict yourself by calling into question if the sample group was ideal, then maybe you could kindly refrain from calling others ignorant.

What "assumption"? The article said it was 800 randomly-selected voters. I didn't contradict myself on anything. I said, here are a couple potentially valid criticisms of polls. Not, "this is a valid criticism of this particular poll".

Do you have some sort of specific criticism about their polling method? Put up or shut up. Right now, your criticism of the poll appears to be wholly based on "I didn't like the outcome, so I am going to invent problems out of whole cloth."

R357 · Jan 14, 2013

erwos said:
Try rewriting this into English that other people can understand, please. The method described should produce perfectly valid statistical results in the state of Maryland, as it has umpteen million times before.

What "assumption"? The article said it was 800 randomly-selected voters. I didn't contradict myself on anything. I said, here are a couple potentially valid criticisms of polls. Not, "this is a valid criticism of this particular poll".

Do you have some sort of specific criticism about their polling method? Put up or shut up. Right now, your criticism of the poll appears to be wholly based on "I didn't like the outcome, so I am going to invent problems out of whole cloth."

You can throw as many insults as you like out there, but your playing in the mud by yourself. My feelings regarding the poll and the assement that the confidence factor should not be short handed to 95% are of record and presented above.

ezliving · Jan 14, 2013

I can't find a copy of the poll to see the tabs.

EL1227 · Jan 14, 2013

Ellegon said:
I've had many conversations with elcid. I believe he works in some capacity for Gansler. He's avoided a direct answer,but I believe he's part of the problem. Go back and re-read his responses. They sometimes state "we're working on this or we're looking into that".Be very careful with him I believe he is dangerous to our cause!!!

He's a CPA in Hartford County; most likely working for or under contract to the state fom what I can tell based on interweb searches.

Marylanders strongly support gun control proposals, poll finds

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