Live from Baltimore town hall antigun circle jerk

[safecracker]

They only scheduled town halls in liberal areas of the state none out in the hinterlands where they expect opposition.

Blacksmith101

This one was also in a liberal area where they expected no opposition.

And look what happened........

 

[JPG]

Was this in the news? I know it was leading up to but didn't see the after action report.

 

[peafarmer]

Circadia, thanks for the suggestions, I think Excel can crunch these numbers very easily. I'll give it a shot today / this evening. I do think this is going to boil down to numbers, at least to prevent this thing from getting passed. When Lt. Gov. was asked about constitutionality, he said that he is not a constitutional lawyer, but he thought all of the proposed legislation was constitutional. I think this comes down to a mindset that I saw on smartgunlaws.org. They think that Heller was a major departure from decades of 2A interpretation. They think that Militia means an active State militia. So, in their minds, it is a priveledge for us citizens to even have a musket. They think the SB281, in its entirety, is constitutional.

 

[trickg]

Was this in the news? I know it was leading up to but didn't see the after action report.

You aren't going to see something like that making a headline because it didn't wind up like they'd planned. The idea was to do a town hall meeting in a majorly liberal area with the idea that it would be in overwhelming support of their agenda. Unfortunately for them, this one kinda blew up in their faces, which is probably due to the erroneous idea that gun owners are uninformed rednecks that are few and far between. I seriously doubt they were expecting so many pro 2A folks to show up and for all of them to be armed with the facts.

From my perspective looking at the national numbers, as least according to Wikipedia anyway, there are 315 million people in the USA and an average of .888 guns per person, (or almost 89 guns for every 100 people, depending on how you want to look at it) so that doesn't look like we are the vocal minority with a silent majority who want stricter gun laws. To me it looks like most households in the US, maybe even as high as 50%+, have a gun.

 

[hvymax]

Next time DiMarco brings up straw purchases we need to ask how many of these easily proven cases have been prosecuted. Then point out how useless this law would be for preventing crime and how detrimental it will be to legal gunowners.

 

[Tyeraxus]

From my perspective looking at the national numbers, as least according to Wikipedia anyway, there are 315 million people in the USA and an average of .888 guns per person, (or almost 89 guns for every 100 people, depending on how you want to look at it) so that doesn't look like we are the vocal minority with a silent majority who want stricter gun laws. To me it looks like most households in the US, maybe even as high as 50%+, have a gun.

That's assuming no one owns multiple guns. I've heard numbers (never with a source) of anywhere between 30million and 110million gun owners in the US, but since we don't have a national firearms registry (thank God) those are more guesses than anything. That's somewhere between 1/10 and 1/3 of Americans owning guns - not exactly a small number, but not a vast overwhelming majority either.

 

[Mark75H]

Next time DiMarco brings up straw purchases we need to ask how many of these easily proven cases have been prosecuted. Then point out how useless this law would be for preventing crime and how detrimental it will be to legal gunowners.

BINGO!

 

[hvymax]

You aren't going to see something like that making a headline because it didn't wind up like they'd planned. The idea was to do a town hall meeting in a majorly liberal area with the idea that it would be in overwhelming support of their agenda. Unfortunately for them, this one kinda blew up in their faces, which is probably due to the erroneous idea that gun owners are uninformed rednecks that are few and far between. I seriously doubt they were expecting so many pro 2A folks to show up and for all of them to be armed with the facts.

From my perspective looking at the national numbers, as least according to Wikipedia anyway, there are 315 million people in the USA and an average of .888 guns per person, (or almost 89 guns for every 100 people, depending on how you want to look at it) so that doesn't look like we are the vocal minority with a silent majority who want stricter gun laws. To me it looks like most households in the US, maybe even as high as 50%+, have a gun.

Based on those numbers and those of us around here that is only1-2% of households.

 

[ChannelCat]

Thank you everyone erring on the side of freedom who showed up. I read this entire thread just now, and it made my week!

This was nothing more than a sham for bad legislation that will pacify the ignorant into thinking that something has been done. It will make a good soundbite for the MOM for President and Anthony Brown for Governor campaigns, but will have draconian affects on otherwise principled, law-abiding citizens.

cogcon, that was one of the most brilliant statements that I've heard in a while, and I've heard quite a few in the last month. Our opponents were truly hoping for a Sarah Brady pep rally, but proceeded to get their a$$es handed to them...

 

[peafarmer]

I know I've read the 30,000 number somewhere before. it may have been in a CDC report or just a random article somewhere, but you're correct — that's not gun murders, it's total gun deaths (murder, suicide, accidents, justifiable homicide).

For clarity, the FBI's 2011 crime report shows the total gun murders. Here's the section of the report (Expanded Homicide Data Table 8) that shows the breakdown of murders by type of weapon, from years 2007-20011.

TOTAL FIREARM MURDERS
2007: 10,129
2008: 9,528
2009: 9,199
2010: 8,874
2011: 8,583

That guy's whole argument seemed to be that fingerprinting and registration would intimidate people, which would lead to fewer people buying guns. Even if he actually has stats that could back that up, it screams second amendment violation to me. It's not okay to intimidate citizens into not voting and it's not okay to intimidate people into not keeping and bearing arms.







If you feel like doing lots of math, you can check his claim by calculating firearm murder rates for each state and comparing them:

(Gun Murders ÷ Population) x 100,000 = rate of gun murder per 100,000 people

^I think I did that right.

Wikipedia - Population of each state

FBI Crime Report - Number of firearm murders in each state

Here's two I did to get you started if you're interested:

Maryland: 4.6 gun murders per 100,000 people
New York: 2.3 gun murders per 100,000 people

The population numbers are from 2010 and the gun murder numbers are from 2011, so it's not perfect, but it's close enough for analysis. The guy didn't seem like an idiot, so his claims are probably true. It's still just a statistic, though. Numbers don't lie, but they aren't sworn to tell the whole truth either. Regardless, I don't think the registration/fingerprinting argument hinges on numbers anyway. It hinges on the question of Constitutionality and on law-abiding citizens refusal to be treated like criminals.

I'm glad that I ran the numbers. The overall national murder rate per 100K is 3.08. Then, looking at the "strongest gun laws" states from the town hall handout, we have:

CA 4
NJ 3
MA 2
CT 3
HI 0
NY 2
MD 5
IL 3
RI 0
MI 5

When looking at the outliers for the US states / territories the U.S. Virgin Islands is very interesting. With limited research, it looks like they have gun licensing. Yet, their rate is:

USVI 29 !!!!!

Some outliers on the low side, with either 0 or 1 per 100K include: CO, ID, IA, ME, MN, MT, NH, ND, OR, RI, SD, UT, VT, WA, WI.

So, the reasonable conclusion is that states with lower population densities have lower gun murder rates. I do not see any consistent correlation between licensing and lower gun murder rates. Also, it does look like the numbers on their slide may have been cooked by including suicides.

 

[GBMaryland]

Im not going to lie, I am shocked by this and I cant wait for the Rockville town hall. If Blatimore went this way, i seriously hope MC is the same way. God, please let me get passed over for this jury duty on the 4th. I need my fill of drama on the 6th .

Please note folks:

We will need a lot of pro-2a folks at the Montgomery County town hall. This is important, not as important as the Capitol, but we still need folk to Rockville.

 

[Markp]

I'm glad that I ran the numbers. The overall national murder rate per 100K is 3.08. Then, looking at the "strongest gun laws" states from the town hall handout, we have:

CA 4
NJ 3
MA 2
CT 3
HI 0
NY 2
MD 5
IL 3
RI 0
MI 5

When looking at the outliers for the US states / territories the U.S. Virgin Islands is very interesting. With limited research, it looks like they have gun licensing. Yet, their rate is:

USVI 29 !!!!!

Some outliers on the low side, with either 0 or 1 per 100K include: CO, ID, IA, ME, MN, MT, NH, ND, OR, RI, SD, UT, VT, WA, WI.

So, the reasonable conclusion is that states with lower population densities have lower gun murder rates. I do not see any consistent correlation between licensing and lower gun murder rates. Also, it does look like the numbers on their slide may have been cooked by including suicides.

Anyone who is trying to simplify this is doing an injustice on a wholesale level, however, it's quite complex, but there are meta-factors that capture a whole host of other factors.

First let's stratify the number of gun deaths by per capita income and you'll quickly find that gun deaths track with economic opportunity, educational attainment, and family stability (e.g. intact families with adequate resources).

Alan Cohen's article/blog " Guns are (probably) not responsible for the high murder rates in the US: how to understand the stats"

http://maketheworldworkbetter.wordp...-rates-in-the-us-how-to-understand-the-stats/

Cohen is a highly regarded (and clearly liberal) statistics guru, but even he notes that the liberals have made serious errors in analysis... including (shocker) that more guns do not equal more death.


It's that easy. No one wants to talk about the dirty secret: Poorer countries appear to have more homicides, as do ones with more income inequality.


A Chicago study in 1994, compared with white males, the relative risk of nonfatal assault was 7.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3 to 9.1) for black males and 3.3 (95% CI 2.5 to 4.4) for Hispanic males; the relative risk was 1.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.1) for black females. A handgun was the firearm used in most assaults (88% of non-fatal and 84% of fatal).

Our results are consistent with reports of adult homicide, as the adult homicide rate has been correlated with census tract socioeconomic status. (WOW, What a surpise!!!)

Although homicide rates began to fall between 1993 and 1994, among black males aged 15–19 years firearm homicides continue to account for approximately 60% of all deaths. Black and Hispanic youth living in poverty were at particular risk. For example, the proportion of families with income below the 1989 poverty level ($12 674) and the per cent black race in the community area together accounted for 70% of the variance in assault rates.(Powell & Tanz, 1999)


Don't look by state, that's meant to obfuscate the truth, the truth is that inner city poverty and culture is the problem!!! Poverty is a substantial factor in gun deaths by metro, as it was in our previous state-level analysis. The percentage of a metro’s population below the poverty line is significantly associated with all three types of gun death — homicide (.45), suicide (.35), and the overall rate (.49), as reported by Richard Florida Editor at The Atlantic Cities.


Cities with the Highest Rates of Gun-Related Homicides (per 100,000 people)

Rank City

1. New Orleans City Rate 62.1 Metro Rate 24.1 City/Metro Ratio 2.6
2. Detroit City Rate 35.9 Metro Rate 9.3 City/Metro Ratio 3.9
3. Baltimore City Rate 29.7 Metro Rate 10.3 City/Metro Ratio 2.9
4. Oakland, CA City Rate 26.1 Metro Rate 7.1 City/Metro Ratio 3.7
5. Newark City Rate 25.4 Metro Rate 3.3 City/Metro Ratio 7.7
6. St. Louis City Rate 24.1 Metro Rate 7.2 City/Metro Ratio 3.3
7. Miami City Rate 23.7 Metro Rate 6.3 City/Metro Ratio 3.8
8. Richmond City Rate 23.1 Metro Rate 7.4 City/Metro Ratio 3.1
9. Philadelphia City Rate 20 Metro Rate 7.8 City/Metro Ratio 2.6
10. Washington, D.C. City Rate 19 Metro Rate 5.5 City/Metro Ratio 3.5

Table data from Centers for Disease Control

 

[Mark75H]

Other than Louisiana, isn't this also generally a population density map?

With Louisiana as a partial (because of its super high crime stats) outlier, it looks like predators hunt where there is prey -and then Louisiana as an example of low income super intensification.

Socialists will use the same data to argue for income equity, taxes, redistribution of wealth & Section 8 dispersement of the poor - but I still think, as I always have, that its a social problem with population density

 

[peafarmer]

Mark, thanks for taking it to the next level. I suspected that we would find that the poor inner cities would be driving the statistics, but did not have the statistics available.

I think somebody needs to be at the next town halls to debunk the idea that the licensing and fingerprinting is the answer. I think that the only thing that may dissuade the bureaucrats is numbers. I don't think they have any regard for 2A.

 

[cogcon]

My question is what is the value-added benefit that fingerprinting will have in regards to straw purchases in Maryland. The MSP 77R-2 already asks for all my PII data, plus a copy of my government photo ID to boot. What percentage increase over the current system for purchasing a regulated firearm will fingerprinting have in preventing straw purchases? Does this proposal have any public benefit or does it only drive up the initial entry cost of purchasing a firearm, an economic decision made for political purposes ?

They say that every time they raise the tax on tobacco and liquor, a certain % of people stop buying them. The health nazis think this is a social good. For firearms, can this be interpreted as an unreasonable restriction on the exercise of our rights, given the amount of PII already provided? I am open to hear what the State has to say, but want the facts that support this proposal. From what I experienced at the 1/31 town hall meeting, there were none to be had.

 

[K-Romulus]

My question is what is the value-added benefit that fingerprinting will have in regards to straw purchases in Maryland. The MSP 77R-2 already asks for all my PII data, plus a copy of my government photo ID to boot. What percentage increase over the current system for purchasing a regulated firearm will fingerprinting have in preventing straw purchases? Does this proposal have any public benefit or does it only drive up the initial entry cost of purchasing a firearm, an economic decision made for political purposes ?

They say that every time they raise the tax on tobacco and liquor, a certain % of people stop buying them. The health nazis think this is a social good. For firearms, can this be interpreted as an unreasonable restriction on the exercise of our rights, given the amount of PII already provided? I am open to hear what the State has to say, but want the facts that support this proposal. From what I experienced at the 1/31 town hall meeting, there were none to be had.

great points, my thinking too.

 

[Markp]

Other than Louisiana, isn't this also generally a population density map?

With Louisiana as a partial (because of its super high crime stats) outlier, it looks like predators hunt where there is prey -and then Louisiana as an example of low income super intensification.

Socialists will use the same data to argue for income equity, taxes, redistribution of wealth & Section 8 dispersement of the poor - but I still think, as I always have, that its a social problem with population density

To some extent it is a population map, but as you drill into localities you find that poverty tracks so strongly with gun violence that to ignore it would be inane. You can't have something so strongly correlated without finding out what that relationship is. Granted you can correlate ice cream sales with sun burn, or even murder rates, but there is research that shows more and more evidence that this link between gun violence, population density, and poverty is more than coincidental.

Mark