The Coming Crash In Ammo Prices

[pbharvey]

Even though I'm sitting on a decent stash of ammo I still feel a little like Elaine in that Seinfeld episode where she can't decide if the guy she's dating is "sponge worthy."
I have a small twinge of remorse when at the range wondering "what if" my last order was the last order I could get for a while. I've settled on an amount to store and then an additional amount to shoot, work down, and replenish but still I don't like the long term uncertainty. I'm surprised that .22 manufacturing can't catch up.

 

[pwoolford]

Even though I'm sitting on a decent stash of ammo I still feel a little like Elaine in that Seinfeld episode where she can't decide if the guy she's dating is "sponge worthy."
I have a small twinge of remorse when at the range wondering "what if" my last order was the last order I could get for a while. I've settled on an amount to store and then an additional amount to shoot, work down, and replenish but still I don't like the long term uncertainty. I'm surprised that .22 manufacturing can't catch up.

You are well on your way to calling 100K of ammo a nice start!

Seriously though...that is how I started. A few years ago I tried to buy a box to put away for each box I shot. Sometimes that meant 4 boxes...sometimes 4 cases. Depends on the deal.

 

[Half-cocked]

Walmart shelves are PACKED with many types of ammo, but that's because they have overshot the mark, being far too slow to adjust their pricing to match supply with demand. I've seen 720-round cases of 5.56 for $450, a price which some might have gladly paid 18 months ago, but in today's glutted market, that's absurd.

The .22LR situation will most likely be over by this summer, as people who "invested" in pallets of the stuff start to unload it, once they realize prices and availability are coming back down to earth.

 

[Redd Byrd]

Er, maybe.

I can see the 2X, 3X pricing going away but part of the price rise was the decrease in the value of the Dollar versus metal.

Couple that loss with the newest onslaught against person freedom, the DOJ threatening institutions that loan ammo manufacturers money. That can't help the prices.

Oh Hell Yes!

 

[protegeV]

 

[QuebecoisWolf]

Depends on what you shoot.

5.45x39mm has gone up in price by about 10% in the past sixth months and will rise further in the short term as the last milsurp cans dry up and commercial producers struggle to meet demand. Toss in the fact that diplomatic relations with Russia and their toadies is uncertain, plus Ukraine is in the midst of a civil war, and it make take a while for new ammo to reach the US in quantity. Now that AK-74 parts kits are widely available in the US, these rifles are becoming more common.

7.62x54R has also been seeing a slow and steady increase in price over the last 10 years as milsurp dwindles and Mosins continue to be massively popular. I doubt that these prices will decrease, though they may not increase much as this was a popular "hoard" caliber and Mosins aren't $59.99 anymore.

 

[erwos]

Disagree on 5.45x39. Commercial production has kept up really well. Short of an import ban, I expect it'll continue to be cheaper than 5.56x45. The ban on 7N6 imports really chilled the AK-74 market, and the current hot Zastava guns are not in that caliber, either... demand is not rising. (Now, total disclosure... once I'm through with my current open can of 7N6, I'll probably swap my 5.45x39 AR back to 5.56x45. My -74 and 5.45x39 upper will probably mostly collect dust, which is alright with me, they weren't super expensive.)

7.62x54R, that's a more interesting question. My suspicion is that it doesn't really sell as well as some people think. I think prices will drop on this, too. Remember that this is still a caliber in current use, so it seems unlikely the bottom is going to fall out very quickly.

If you really want to see ammo prices crater, lift the Chinese import ban.

My real gripe about the 22lr shortage is that I can't find any standard velocity stuff to run with my Sparrow. I was lucky enough to stack deep with Fed bulk and Mini-Mags before it all disappeared, so just shooting it isn't a big deal for me.

 

[tomandjerry00]

7.62x54R, that's a more interesting question. My suspicion is that it doesn't really sell as well as some people think. I think prices will drop on this, too. Remember that this is still a caliber in current use, so it seems unlikely the bottom is going to fall out very quickly.

I agree with this point. I think the prices will remain relatively constant/drop. New mil surp ammo is being made very day. Countries are just going to continue to cycle-out the older ammo and send it our way.

 

[Doctor_M]

Waiting for the next run of 12mm pinfire.... might be a while :-)

 

[Seagrave1963]

7.62x54R, that's a more interesting question. My suspicion is that it doesn't really sell as well as some people think. I think prices will drop on this, too. Remember that this is still a caliber in current use, so it seems unlikely the bottom is going to fall out very quickly.

I agree with this point. I think the prices will remain relatively constant/drop. New mil surp ammo is being made very day. Countries are just going to continue to cycle-out the older ammo and send it our way.

I'll be very happy when they start sending over the old non-corrosive 54R

 

[erwos]

I'll be very happy when they start sending over the old non-corrosive 54R

It doesn't exist. There is some newer production Novosibirsk LVE stuff that looks surplus-ish, but really isn't.

If you're willing to pay the money, LG is selling 7N1 at about 60c a round:
http://www.luckygunner.com/7-62x54r-152-gr-fmj-7n1-russian-surplus-440-round

Still corrosive, but it's cheap for high-grade ammo. If I shot my VEPR 54R more, I might be into it.

 

[Traveler]

And there was great rejoicing.

 

[protegeV]

 

[Mr H]

 

[Mooseman]

I hope this prognostication comes true. The sooner the better.

 

[Seagrave1963]

It doesn't exist. There is some newer production Novosibirsk LVE stuff that looks surplus-ish, but really isn't.

If you're willing to pay the money, LG is selling 7N1 at about 60c a round:
http://www.luckygunner.com/7-62x54r-152-gr-fmj-7n1-russian-surplus-440-round

Still corrosive, but it's cheap for high-grade ammo. If I shot my VEPR 54R more, I might be into it.

Well, a guy can dream. The VEPR is exactly what I was looking to feed. Guess I'll continue to search for PPU or MFS 54R

 

[erwos]

Just shoot corrosive and clean it. Really not a big deal.

 

[Lou45]

Even though I'm sitting on a decent stash of ammo I still feel a little like Elaine in that Seinfeld episode where she can't decide if the guy she's dating is "sponge worthy."

This ^^^ post doesn't make any sense to me; WTF is "sponge worthy"???

 

[Mooseman]

This ^^^ post doesn't make any sense to me; WTF is "sponge worthy"???

Birth control sponge.

 

[adit]

This ^^^ post doesn't make any sense to me; WTF is "sponge worthy"???