So you think gun control works?

Hopalong · Oct 8, 2013

If you ever wanted proof that stronger gun control laws do not correlate with lower gun-related homicide, here you go. (Keep in mind that this is data from 2010.) I've tried fitting a trend to this mess and nothing reliable comes out. All you can really say is that most states have low Brady scores (below 20), and most of them are below the national average for gun-related homicide (3.0 per 100,000).

I made sure to highlight some of the strong gun control holdouts (including Maryland) and some of our favorites as well for comparison.

I was rather surprised by that Maryland, as a state, stands out as badly as it does. Third in the nation overall in gun-related homicides. I'm used to looking at cities in other states, not whole other states. Wow.

(Note, DC is not on the plot because there is no Brady score associated with it, plus it's not really fair to compare a city with an entire state.)

Brooklyn · Oct 8, 2013

Post cards by mail?

Inverse correlation dispositively disproves causality.

Hopalong · Oct 8, 2013

Brooklyn said:
Post cards by mail?

Inverse correlation dispositively disproves causality.

You make my head hurt man.

English please. Preferably without so many syllables and double negatives.

Mr H · Oct 8, 2013

Interesting you should post this...

I was just listening to a report yesterday about how bad some areas of NOLA are, we See Louisiana where it is on the chart.

And, once again, we see Illinois (even with Chitcago) besting Maryland........

abean4187 · Oct 8, 2013

I’m always curious as to why Hawaii and Louisiana are outliers in these studies.

MDFF2008 · Oct 8, 2013

abean4187 said:
I’m always curious as to why Hawaii and Louisiana are outliers in these studies.

New Orleans has some VERY, VERY violent areas and I don't think the rest of the state can balance that out.

Hawaii is small, lots of US military and tourists to balance out the population.

jrumann59 · Oct 8, 2013

abean4187 said:
I’m always curious as to why Hawaii and Louisiana are outliers in these studies.

Hawaii is the model of if you have no way to transport guns across state lines gun control works in an isolated region. Louisiana I believe has most of its population concentrated around a few cities.

jonnyl · Oct 8, 2013

Hopalong said:
You make my head hurt man.

English please. Preferably without so many syllables and double negatives.

I'm reading it as: High correlation doesn't prove causation, but if you're telling me you're doing something (gun control) to have an effect and there is none (or the effect goes the other direction) it does prove that you're full of frosh.

DC-W · Oct 8, 2013

New Orleans is severely gang-ridden.

justiw · Oct 8, 2013

What are the other 2 states near Hawaii?

Plots like this are normally split into quadrants. Put another line at Brady = 20 and you can group states into 4 categories.

Hopalong · Oct 8, 2013

abean4187 said:
I’m always curious as to why Hawaii and Louisiana are outliers in these studies.

The fact that Hawaii is the only island on the list means that it's going to behave differently in the distribution. It's overall homicide rate is closer to the national average, but it's fraction of homicides committed with a gun is very low (only 28%).

As for Louisiana...think New Orleans. Coupled with the fact that the New Orleans metro area accounts for a quarter of the state's population, and you get some really skewed statistics.

TxAggie · Oct 8, 2013

abean4187 said:
I’m always curious as to why Hawaii and Louisiana are outliers in these studies.

One word: Culture

That's the most important factor in the gun law/gun violence rate and why both sides are able to quote data and find outliers.

But if you discuss culture, you might as well discuss mental health and by that point you're already labeled a racist.

The bottom line to all the madness: there is no broad evidence to suggest that gun control reduces gun crimes in a given location. Just ask the CDC.

rob-cubed · Oct 8, 2013

What would be more telling is the Brady score vs urban density or poverty levels instead. The two primary drivers of gun crime are living in urban blight and being poor. One of the primary reasons LA is so far right, it's got a lot of both.

Hopalong · Oct 8, 2013

rob-cubed said:
What would be more telling is the Brady score vs urban density or poverty levels instead. The two primary drivers of gun crime are living in urban blight and being poor. One of the primary reasons LA is so far right, it's got a lot of both.

Ask and ye shall receive....

EDIT: I added the poverty vs gun homicide chart. Holy cow! I'd call that a pretty strong correlation.

EDIT2: The poverty stats are from 2009, the others from 2010. So it's not a perfect comparison, but it's the best I could do in short order.

Brooklyn · Oct 8, 2013

Hopalong said:
You make my head hurt man.

English please. Preferably without so many syllables and double negatives.

If the number of guns goes up,
and the number of crimes goes down,
then it is not possible for guns to cause crime.

I only use the first when I want to bitch slap a liberal that thinks they are smarter than god. :lol2:

Its fun..

But like I said that's only with folks that think they should know better and don't listen anyway

Brooklyn · Oct 8, 2013

jonnyl said:
I'm reading it as: High correlation doesn't prove causation, but if you're telling me you're doing something (gun control) to have an effect and there is none (or the effect goes the other direction) it does prove that you're full of frosh.

10-4 It has a High frosh coefficient..

Brooklyn · Oct 8, 2013

Hopalong said:
Ask and ye shall receive....

EDIT: I added the poverty vs gun homicide chart. Holy cow! I'd call that a pretty strong correlation.

EDIT2: The poverty stats are from 2009, the others from 2010. So it's not a perfect comparison, but it's the best I could do in short order.

Careful that can support an argument in favor of creating a high financial bar to gun ownership-- we both know its not poverty but liberals will jump all over it.

They are and always will be elitistist.

rob-cubed · Oct 8, 2013

Hopalong said:
Ask and ye shall receive....

EDIT: I added the poverty vs gun homicide chart. Holy cow! I'd call that a pretty strong correlation.

EDIT2: The poverty stats are from 2009, the others from 2010. So it's not a perfect comparison, but it's the best I could do in short order.

Thanks! Not surprised at all to see the worst Brady offenders are all in urban-dense areas. I'm guessing those diamonds on the top left are all cities in Texas and Florida...

The second chart is quite interesting, I'd always assumed higher correlation between poverty and gun crime. But I bet that chart is a little skewed since it doesn't differentiate between urban and rural poor.

danb · Oct 8, 2013

Hopalong said:
Ask and ye shall receive....

EDIT: I added the poverty vs gun homicide chart. Holy cow! I'd call that a pretty strong correlation.

EDIT2: The poverty stats are from 2009, the others from 2010. So it's not a perfect comparison, but it's the best I could do in short order.

did you try rental vacancy rate (proxy for decay), youth unemployment?

Brooklyn · Oct 8, 2013

danb said:
did you try rental vacancy rate (proxy for decay), youth unemployment?

You are making a case for something you may not want...

It is not our job to solve the crime problem. It is our job to refute the claim that gun control helps in any way to solve the crime problem. We have done that.

We have no further obligation. The opposition will hang you if you continue--- see for example the failure to allow 18 yo to have hand guns... you are making that case.

If you must game this out at least understand the flank you are exposing..

So you think gun control works?

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