Vulnerable Dems

[occbrian]

We need a list of dems who won their primaries by a 'narrow' margin. Under 1k, listed by district. Is this on he Dino web site?

Also... Dems that won by larger margins but could easily be beaten if 2 of the opposing candidates combined votes.


Then we need to put together a list of any and all local publications within that district (newsletters, weekly flyers... Anything with ad space).

 

[RustinRifle55]

You guys and gals from Carroll Co.......I understand Larry Rothschild has some ideas on what to do if 281 and 294 pass. What are you hearing?

 

[occbrian]

You guys and gals from Carroll Co.......I understand Larry Rothschild has some ideas on what to do if 281 and 294 pass. What are you hearing?

Don't derail the thread! Search for Carroll county. Lou45 has a post about it.

 

[md123]

We need a list of dems who won their primaries by a 'narrow' margin. Under 1k, listed by district. Is this on he Dino web site?

Then we need to put together a list of any and all local publications within that district (newsletters, weekly flyers... Anything with ad space).

I did this a few weeks ago. Can't find the thread. IMO if people are likely to win primary by 5k or more, they run unopposed in MD.

Edit- I have lots more data in excel. These are 2010 results because I wanted to see an "off cycle" election year. Things are likely different when there is a national campaign in the news 29 hours (yes 29) per day.

 

[ShoreShooter]

http://www.mdshooters.com/showthread.php?t=113554


Links in first post of the thread

 

[occbrian]

I did this a few weeks ago. Can't find the thread. IMO if people are likely to win primary by 5k or more, they run unopposed in MD.

Edit- I have lots more data in excel. These are 2010 results because I wanted to see an "off cycle" election year. Things are likely different when there is a national campaign in the news 29 hours (yes 29) per day.

View attachment 80983

Can we get this for primary results?

 

[occbrian]

http://www.mdshooters.com/showthread.php?t=113554


Links in first post of the thread

Wait...

I want PRIMARY data. Anyone have that?

 

[md123]

Wait...

I want PRIMARY data. Anyone have that?

Mine was Senate Primary FYI.

Didn't do Delegates, but will. It'll take some time for what? 4x as many reps?

 

[flyingblind]

Post a source for the data, lets split the task up. The sooner we have the data the sooner it can be used to further our agenda.

 

[occbrian]

I found it.

http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2010/results/Primary/

 

[ShoreShooter]

Wait...

I want PRIMARY data. Anyone have that?

http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2010/index.html

 

[HKB]

Do not forget to take in to account the new gerrymandered districts.

 

[md123]

We should be able to knock off several of those critters. Did you see the margins? 1-400. Several under 1,000. See ya later.

Not sure about you guys but I think we need to go political Kamikaze style. If the next person in line is a grabber too, so be it. The power is in the fact that incumbents don't want to lose their job. Would you feel any better if you lost your actual job and the person replacing you had similar beliefs? Not so much....

Put differently, we shouldn't think we need to organize dozens of credible blue dog candidates. Not yet at least. For now, plucking off incumbents (at the ballot box, of course) is the goal. The fact that we don't have a suitable replacement yet shouldn't stop operation DINO across the board.

However, I'm fully supportive of running "our own" where possible. Not all D's are grabbers- we should be careful to denote friendlies.

 

[flyingblind]

The new districting is gonna be hard to account for.

 

[md123]

Remember, we're talking closed primaries in off-presidential cycle years. FAR fewer votes cast.

 

[dblas]

We should be able to knock off several of those critters. Did you see the margins? 1-400. Several under 1,000. See ya later.

Not sure about you guys but I think we need to go political Kamikaze style. If the next person in line is a grabber too, so be it. The power is in the fact that incumbents don't want to lose their job. Would you feel any better if you lost your actual job and the person replacing you had similar beliefs? Not so much....

Put differently, we shouldn't think we need to organize dozens of credible blue dog candidates. Not yet at least. For now, plucking off incumbents (at the ballot box, of course) is the goal. The fact that we don't have a suitable replacement yet shouldn't stop operation DINO across the board.

However, I'm fully supportive of running "our own" where possible. Not all D's are grabbers- we should be careful to denote friendlies.

This needs to be read and reread by everybody. Seniority counts in politics and if you are freshman Delegate or Senator, you aren't going to get that juicy committee spot that the incumbent you replaced had.

So yes, the replacement in the primary may be as bad or worse that the incumbent, but the incumbent is gone and the replacement is a freshman with no legislative pull.

 

[dblas]

The new districting is gonna be hard to account for.

In some districts, yes, in others, like mine (21) the district changes in what I think is a good way. District 21 looses the Howard and Ann Arundel portions of Laurel and the portion of MD City north of 197. District 21 picks up the rural area of Odenten, Ft. Meade, Prince Orchard and Gambrils in Ann Arundel.

If we start now in those new areas and educate them on how there future delegates have voted, I am betting we could get more than just Frush, we might get Barnes and (Gasp!) Pena-Melnyk.

It is up to each of us in our respective districts to look at the new maps and see how they affect us. I have done mine for the northern part of District 21, I will look at the rest of the district and others and start parsing out changes.

 

[occbrian]

We want them replaced. WITH ANYONE.

mess with 2a= lose your job.

 

[Drmsparks]

We want them replaced. WITH ANYONE.

mess with 2a= lose your job.

Excellent.

 

[dblas]

We want them replaced. WITH ANYONE.

mess with 2a= lose your job.

THIS!!!