How long will the SHTF last?

[Blacksmith101]

I came across some estimates for the recovery time for a major disaster which I thought I would share. This is one paragraph from a much longer article about an earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest.

"Wineglasses, antique vases, Humpty Dumpty, hip bones, hearts: what breaks quickly generally mends slowly, if at all. OSSPAC estimates that in the I-5 corridor it will take between one and three months after the earthquake to restore electricity, a month to a year to restore drinking water and sewer service, six months to a year to restore major highways, and eighteen months to restore health-care facilities. On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals. Those estimates do not apply to the tsunami-inundation zone, which will remain all but uninhabitable for years."

Link to the complete article (thanks to Joppaj for originally posting it in the NorCal Earthquake thread):

The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest

When the Cascadia fault line ruptures, it could be North America’s worst natural disaster in recorded history.

www.newyorker.com

 

[ToBeFree]

6 - 20

 

[Occam]

Just depends on which F the S hits. There's no geological scenario on this coast that equates to that Cascadia situation on the west coast, and thus a reduced risk of a giant-squeegee-like tsunami scrubbing away hundreds of miles of coastline. The closest worry would be a coherent volcanic landslide from the La Palma volcano in the Canaries. If it were to really let go, it could cause 20-50 meter high waves to hit our east coast. Not very likely to have that whole mountain slough off that bank in one piece, but if it does, that would be a doozy.

 

[Threeband]

Seven years.

 

[Mark75H]

3% chance of 2 weeks
(Sorry had to do it)

 

[Bikebreath]

At 5:30 Eastern time today…

6.4-magnitude earthquake hits California, causes power outages

6.4-magnitude earthquake hits California, causes power outages

news.yahoo.com

 

[ground chuck]

With family directly in Puget sound. I finally have them of the mindset that help is not coming if something "major" happened. I set up their rain barrels this summer. I gave them 2 extra days.....

 

[owldo]

I came across some estimates for the recovery time for a major disaster which I thought I would share. This is one paragraph from a much longer article about an earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest.

"Wineglasses, antique vases, Humpty Dumpty, hip bones, hearts: what breaks quickly generally mends slowly, if at all. OSSPAC estimates that in the I-5 corridor it will take between one and three months after the earthquake to restore electricity, a month to a year to restore drinking water and sewer service, six months to a year to restore major highways, and eighteen months to restore health-care facilities. On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals. Those estimates do not apply to the tsunami-inundation zone, which will remain all but uninhabitable for years."

Link to the complete article (thanks to Joppaj for originally posting it in the NorCal Earthquake thread):

The Earthquake That Will Devastate the Pacific Northwest

When the Cascadia fault line ruptures, it could be North America’s worst natural disaster in recorded history.

www.newyorker.com

Reconstruction after the Civil War Took 12 years ... https://www.history.com/topics/american-civil-war/reconstruction

 

[axshon]

lol that's about as likely to happen as a global pandemic! ...wait...

Funny how folks don't really understand their daily dependencies in the first world. We had a major plumbing problem close to Thanksgiving and inlaws were in town (unrelated?). I was really surprised at how little city folks understand about simple things like "no, you cannot flush the toilet". Major problem after Katrina was health issues related to people not understanding why relieving themselves in the hallway of their apartment building is a problem. 5 gallon bucket toilet seat is good to keep handy. And water. And food. And ammo. And enough gas to GTFO. And somewhere to go.

 

[Docster]

Just depends on which F the S hits. There's no geological scenario on this coast that equates to that Cascadia situation on the west coast, and thus a reduced risk of a giant-squeegee-like tsunami scrubbing away hundreds of miles of coastline. The closest worry would be a coherent volcanic landslide from the La Palma volcano in the Canaries. If it were to really let go, it could cause 20-50 meter high waves to hit our east coast. Not very likely to have that whole mountain slough off that bank in one piece, but if it does, that would be a doozy.

Agree. TEOTWAWKI isn't the only possibility. People have been prepping for that for decades. Hurricanes, floods, massive snow storms, localized grid down and many others have higher odds of occurring Personally I don't prep for the end of the world. At 70 yo, don't want to be here for that but I do prep for the others.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

Agree. TEOTWAWKI isn't the only possibility. People have been prepping for that for decades. Hurricanes, floods, massive snow storms, localized grid down and many others have higher odds of occurring Personally I don't prep for the end of the world. At 70 yo, don't want to be here for that but I do prep for the others.

Bully for you sir. An enlightened man. I understand this perspective more with every passing day.

 

[Biggfoot44]

Not exactly the right question .

" Exactly as it were before the disaster/ event " could be a long, long time , or actually never .

The better answer is that " interim new normal " will settle out in stages over weeks and months .

 

[K31]

Agree. TEOTWAWKI isn't the only possibility. People have been prepping for that for decades. Hurricanes, floods, massive snow storms, localized grid down and many others have higher odds of occurring Personally I don't prep for the end of the world. At 70 yo, don't want to be here for that but I do prep for the others.

Not that old just yet myself but I want to be alive to laugh and point fingers at those with gender studies degrees who spent all their money on Teslas, Gucci and imported bottled water.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

Not that old just yet myself but I want to be alive to laugh and point fingers at those with gender studies degrees who spent all their money on Teslas, Gucci and imported bottled water.

Pointing fingers (at them) may be insufficient for those folks at that time…

 

[K31]

Pointing fingers (at them) may be insufficient for those folks at that time…

They'll mostly be looking for anyone in .gov to complain that their iphone not working is a toxic transgression of the patriarchy.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

They can go directly to Helen Waite. She will be my complaint manager.

 

[K31]

I'm sending them to Haywood Jablomey.

 

[ChannelCat]

Just depends on which F the S hits. There's no geological scenario on this coast that equates to that Cascadia situation on the west coast, and thus a reduced risk of a giant-squeegee-like tsunami scrubbing away hundreds of miles of coastline. The closest worry would be a coherent volcanic landslide from the La Palma volcano in the Canaries. If it were to really let go, it could cause 20-50 meter high waves to hit our east coast. Not very likely to have that whole mountain slough off that bank in one piece, but if it does, that would be a doozy.

...Or an asteroid/comet impact of the magnitude that helped form the Chesapeake 35 million years ago. That would ruin your day for sure.

The Chesapeake Bay Bolide Impact: A New View of Coastal Plain Evolution - USGS Fact Sheet 049-98

A spectacular geological event took place on the Atlantic margin of North America about 35 million years ago in the late part of the Eocene Epoch. Sea level was unusually high everywhere on Earth, and the ancient shoreline of the Virginia region was somewhere in the vicinity of where Richmond is...

pubs.usgs.gov

 

[JPG]

If the power is off in Multiple States, how long before the die-off starts (starvation, crime, etc)?

 

[Garet Jax]

If the power is off in Multiple States, how long before the die-off starts (starvation, crime, etc)?

Couple days when people start running out of food.