How long will the SHTF last?

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  • Blacksmith101

    Grumpy Old Man
    Jun 22, 2012
    22,249
    I came across some estimates for the recovery time for a major disaster which I thought I would share. This is one paragraph from a much longer article about an earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest.

    "Wineglasses, antique vases, Humpty Dumpty, hip bones, hearts: what breaks quickly generally mends slowly, if at all. OSSPAC estimates that in the I-5 corridor it will take between one and three months after the earthquake to restore electricity, a month to a year to restore drinking water and sewer service, six months to a year to restore major highways, and eighteen months to restore health-care facilities. On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals. Those estimates do not apply to the tsunami-inundation zone, which will remain all but uninhabitable for years."

    Link to the complete article (thanks to Joppaj for originally posting it in the NorCal Earthquake thread):
     

    Occam

    Not Even ONE Indictment
    MDS Supporter
    Feb 24, 2018
    20,371
    Montgomery County
    Just depends on which F the S hits. There's no geological scenario on this coast that equates to that Cascadia situation on the west coast, and thus a reduced risk of a giant-squeegee-like tsunami scrubbing away hundreds of miles of coastline. The closest worry would be a coherent volcanic landslide from the La Palma volcano in the Canaries. If it were to really let go, it could cause 20-50 meter high waves to hit our east coast. Not very likely to have that whole mountain slough off that bank in one piece, but if it does, that would be a doozy.
     

    ground chuck

    Rookie Jedi
    Sep 28, 2013
    4,196
    Charm City County
    With family directly in Puget sound. I finally have them of the mindset that help is not coming if something "major" happened. I set up their rain barrels this summer. I gave them 2 extra days.....
     

    owldo

    Ultimate Member
    I came across some estimates for the recovery time for a major disaster which I thought I would share. This is one paragraph from a much longer article about an earthquake on the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest.

    "Wineglasses, antique vases, Humpty Dumpty, hip bones, hearts: what breaks quickly generally mends slowly, if at all. OSSPAC estimates that in the I-5 corridor it will take between one and three months after the earthquake to restore electricity, a month to a year to restore drinking water and sewer service, six months to a year to restore major highways, and eighteen months to restore health-care facilities. On the coast, those numbers go up. Whoever chooses or has no choice but to stay there will spend three to six months without electricity, one to three years without drinking water and sewage systems, and three or more years without hospitals. Those estimates do not apply to the tsunami-inundation zone, which will remain all but uninhabitable for years."

    Link to the complete article (thanks to Joppaj for originally posting it in the NorCal Earthquake thread):
    Reconstruction after the Civil War Took 12 years ... https://www.history.com/topics/american-civil-war/reconstruction
     

    axshon

    Ultimate Member
    May 23, 2010
    1,938
    Howard County
    lol that's about as likely to happen as a global pandemic! ...wait...

    Funny how folks don't really understand their daily dependencies in the first world. We had a major plumbing problem close to Thanksgiving and inlaws were in town (unrelated?). I was really surprised at how little city folks understand about simple things like "no, you cannot flush the toilet". Major problem after Katrina was health issues related to people not understanding why relieving themselves in the hallway of their apartment building is a problem. 5 gallon bucket toilet seat is good to keep handy. And water. And food. And ammo. And enough gas to GTFO. And somewhere to go.
     

    Docster

    Ultimate Member
    Jul 19, 2010
    9,773
    Just depends on which F the S hits. There's no geological scenario on this coast that equates to that Cascadia situation on the west coast, and thus a reduced risk of a giant-squeegee-like tsunami scrubbing away hundreds of miles of coastline. The closest worry would be a coherent volcanic landslide from the La Palma volcano in the Canaries. If it were to really let go, it could cause 20-50 meter high waves to hit our east coast. Not very likely to have that whole mountain slough off that bank in one piece, but if it does, that would be a doozy.
    Agree. TEOTWAWKI isn't the only possibility. People have been prepping for that for decades. Hurricanes, floods, massive snow storms, localized grid down and many others have higher odds of occurring Personally I don't prep for the end of the world. At 70 yo, don't want to be here for that but I do prep for the others.
     

    Alea Jacta Est

    Extinguished member
    MDS Supporter
    Agree. TEOTWAWKI isn't the only possibility. People have been prepping for that for decades. Hurricanes, floods, massive snow storms, localized grid down and many others have higher odds of occurring Personally I don't prep for the end of the world. At 70 yo, don't want to be here for that but I do prep for the others.
    Bully for you sir. An enlightened man. I understand this perspective more with every passing day.
     

    Biggfoot44

    Ultimate Member
    Aug 2, 2009
    33,094
    Not exactly the right question .

    " Exactly as it were before the disaster/ event " could be a long, long time , or actually never .

    The better answer is that " interim new normal " will settle out in stages over weeks and months .
     

    K31

    "Part of that Ultra MAGA Crowd"
    MDS Supporter
    Jan 15, 2006
    35,670
    AA county
    Agree. TEOTWAWKI isn't the only possibility. People have been prepping for that for decades. Hurricanes, floods, massive snow storms, localized grid down and many others have higher odds of occurring Personally I don't prep for the end of the world. At 70 yo, don't want to be here for that but I do prep for the others.
    Not that old just yet myself but I want to be alive to laugh and point fingers at those with gender studies degrees who spent all their money on Teslas, Gucci and imported bottled water.
     

    ChannelCat

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Just depends on which F the S hits. There's no geological scenario on this coast that equates to that Cascadia situation on the west coast, and thus a reduced risk of a giant-squeegee-like tsunami scrubbing away hundreds of miles of coastline. The closest worry would be a coherent volcanic landslide from the La Palma volcano in the Canaries. If it were to really let go, it could cause 20-50 meter high waves to hit our east coast. Not very likely to have that whole mountain slough off that bank in one piece, but if it does, that would be a doozy.
    ...Or an asteroid/comet impact of the magnitude that helped form the Chesapeake 35 million years ago. That would ruin your day for sure.
     

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