Ammo sales - Run on ammo?

[Slackdaddy]

Getting "advertisement" emails from a few online ammo retailers,, sounding the alarm bells.
Basically saying ammo orders are up 2-300% in the last 2 days and they may have supply problems or raise prices soon.

Scare tactics BS or legit?

 

[TheOriginalMexicanBob]

Probably legit. Vendors have been overstocked on ammo since manufacturers have caught up with the demand. Can't fault them for wanting to get rid of the excess inventory.

As Rahm Emmanuel said..."Never let a crisis go to waste."

 

[outrider58]

Probably legit. Vendors have been overstocked on ammo since manufacturers have caught up with the demand. Can't fault them for wanting to get rid of the excess inventory.

As Rahm Emmanuel said..."Never let a crisis go to waste."

I would consider that not legit. If they have over stock, they shouldn't be sounding any alarms, right?

I got this email just today. No alarm bells here...

ProArmory

deals.proarmory.com

 

[eruby]

Palmetto State Armory has 9mm for $249/1,000

Some maybe less

https://palmettostatearmory.com/9mm-ammo.html

A little less

https://palmettostatearmory.com/9mm-ammo.html?product_list_order=price_asc

 

[outrider58]

Palmetto State Armory has 9mm for $249/1,000

Some maybe less

https://palmettostatearmory.com/9mm-ammo.html

A little less

https://palmettostatearmory.com/9mm-ammo.html?product_list_order=price_asc

Those don't seem like bad deals.

 

[Sirex]

Was it SG Ammo? They're always stating that. I imagine a bit of ammo will be going to Israel now, along with Ukraine, so maybe a little bump in sales, but I wouldn't panic.

 

[Doctor_M]

Are we allowed to up our yearly purchases to 100 rounds??

 

[dist1646]

There probably will be another run on ammo. The government likes to keep people scared. Couple that with recent events and there we go again.

 

[Slackdaddy]

Was it SG Ammo? They're always stating that. I imagine a bit of ammo will be going to Israel now, along with Ukraine, so maybe a little bump in sales, but I wouldn't panic.

yup,, I get their daily emails,, and they have been a standup supplier as far as I can see.
I don't recall one of these "Panic emails" from them.


"We have seen a massive spike in demand this past 4 days, with double 'normal' sales Saturday and Sunday, then triple normal on Monday, and already double normal at 11am today. We have not raised a single price yet, however if order volume continues to overwhelm the warehouse crew's capacity to fill orders over the next few days we will have to make choices on how we reduce volume, which could involve increasing prices 5% to 10%, limiting selection to cases only, removing popular ammo options that are sold at extremely low profit margins from the website menu, minimum $$ orders, etc, all of which are highly unpopular with segments of out customer base, but necessary to maintain synchronization of warehouse capacity with order volume. We guarantee the advertised price in this email until noon CST on October 11th or while supplies last, however prices are subject to change after that. In my course of many conversations with clients, I commonly see that there is wide spread misunderstanding of 'how it works' in the ammo business, which is understandable because it takes decades of experience to learn the deeper details, and even then, there are always surprises along the way. One thing that a lot of people do not know is that the ammunition business is a fear-driven market, not consumption driven. Fear leads to stockpiling and hording beyond manufacturing's capacity, which leads to shortages. The masses react to scares of various types, driving demand up quickly, sharply and almost instantly, within minutes to hours of a disaster, swarming ammo suppliers like us with abnormally large order volume. Such is the case this weekend in reaction to the Israel - Palestine conflict, where sales skyrocketed Saturday morning and remained at double 'normal' order volume over the weekend. How long this sort of elevation of demand lasts varies and depends greatly on 'aftershocks', as in shocking events that drive additional fear in the wake of what happened just before. It take a series of events to drive the market way up like it was in 2013, or 2020 and 2021, and a single event typically will not do it alone. That said, should a series of shocking events unfold, this could drive the market up in a substantial way. I have seen people on the gun forums often make fun of the people who 'panic buy' the day of the disaster, however in my observations over the years, the people that buy in the first hours or few days of the panic beat the potential price increases and almost always come out ahead of those that wait and buy later in the short term, especially if the market prices are down at the time of the panic like they are these days. In my opinion, the market prices could turn back up so quickly and go up so far, that it is a safe to say it is a great time to buy ammo these days. Prices have come substantially from their peaks in 2021, and while it is always possible that they go slightly lower, there is currently a lot more room to go up which can happen in what seems like the blink of an eye. Stack it deep while it is selling cheap!! We have tons of low cost ammo options in stock so you can be ready for your next trip to the range, including all the popular calibers and with FREE SHIPPING on orders over $200. It would be wise to make your purchases while the market cycle is slow, profit margins are in the mid single digits and before demand elevates. With supply up and prices down, it is currently the best time to buy ammo that we have seen in the past 3 and a half years. We have discount prices on bulk ammo in stock with fast order processing, secure shipment packaging and free shipping on any order with over $200 worth of product, making for a more straight forward transaction without expensive surprises in checkout. We thank you for your support of our family owned and operated business, please stay subscribed for future SGAmmo newsletters."

 

[Sirex]

yup,, I get their daily emails,, and they have been a standup supplier as far as I can see.
I don't recall one of these "Panic emails" from them.


"We have seen a massive spike in demand this past 4 days, with double 'normal' sales Saturday and Sunday, then triple normal on Monday, and already double normal at 11am today. We have not raised a single price yet, however if order volume continues to overwhelm the warehouse crew's capacity to fill orders over the next few days we will have to make choices on how we reduce volume, which could involve increasing prices 5% to 10%, limiting selection to cases only, removing popular ammo options that are sold at extremely low profit margins from the website menu, minimum $$ orders, etc, all of which are highly unpopular with segments of out customer base, but necessary to maintain synchronization of warehouse capacity with order volume. We guarantee the advertised price in this email until noon CST on October 11th or while supplies last, however prices are subject to change after that. In my course of many conversations with clients, I commonly see that there is wide spread misunderstanding of 'how it works' in the ammo business, which is understandable because it takes decades of experience to learn the deeper details, and even then, there are always surprises along the way. One thing that a lot of people do not know is that the ammunition business is a fear-driven market, not consumption driven. Fear leads to stockpiling and hording beyond manufacturing's capacity, which leads to shortages. The masses react to scares of various types, driving demand up quickly, sharply and almost instantly, within minutes to hours of a disaster, swarming ammo suppliers like us with abnormally large order volume. Such is the case this weekend in reaction to the Israel - Palestine conflict, where sales skyrocketed Saturday morning and remained at double 'normal' order volume over the weekend. How long this sort of elevation of demand lasts varies and depends greatly on 'aftershocks', as in shocking events that drive additional fear in the wake of what happened just before. It take a series of events to drive the market way up like it was in 2013, or 2020 and 2021, and a single event typically will not do it alone. That said, should a series of shocking events unfold, this could drive the market up in a substantial way. I have seen people on the gun forums often make fun of the people who 'panic buy' the day of the disaster, however in my observations over the years, the people that buy in the first hours or few days of the panic beat the potential price increases and almost always come out ahead of those that wait and buy later in the short term, especially if the market prices are down at the time of the panic like they are these days. In my opinion, the market prices could turn back up so quickly and go up so far, that it is a safe to say it is a great time to buy ammo these days. Prices have come substantially from their peaks in 2021, and while it is always possible that they go slightly lower, there is currently a lot more room to go up which can happen in what seems like the blink of an eye. Stack it deep while it is selling cheap!! We have tons of low cost ammo options in stock so you can be ready for your next trip to the range, including all the popular calibers and with FREE SHIPPING on orders over $200. It would be wise to make your purchases while the market cycle is slow, profit margins are in the mid single digits and before demand elevates. With supply up and prices down, it is currently the best time to buy ammo that we have seen in the past 3 and a half years. We have discount prices on bulk ammo in stock with fast order processing, secure shipment packaging and free shipping on any order with over $200 worth of product, making for a more straight forward transaction without expensive surprises in checkout. We thank you for your support of our family owned and operated business, please stay subscribed for future SGAmmo newsletters."

Yeah, I like SG Ammo, and buy from them often, but Sam is know for hyping it.

 

[outrider58]

Are we allowed to up our yearly purchases to 100 rounds??

Per diem

 

[outrider58]

Fortunately, I reload most of my ammo, especially the higher consumed ammo.

 

[TwinTurbskis]

It'll only turn into a panic if Hamas invades us from Canada.... which now that I think about it is probably not that farfetched. I may go order another case of 5.56.

 

[outrider58]

It'll only turn into a panic if Hamas invades us from Canada.... which now that I think about it is probably not that farfetched. I may go order another case of 5.56.

I'm thinking two pronged attack. Better make it four...

 

[Uncle Duke]

Fortunately, I reload most of my ammo, especially the higher consumed ammo.

IF there is a bit of a run on ammo because of shipments to Ukraine and Israel? And IF there would be a ramp up in production as a result? I would think that what might become in (shorter) supply (again) would be primers.

 

[outrider58]

IF there is a bit of a run on ammo because of shipments to Ukraine and Israel? And IF there would be a ramp up in production as a result? I would think that what might become in (shorter) supply (again) would be primers.

Already on it...

 

[308Scout]

I just ordered a case of S&B 124gr 9mm for $239. Not noticing any alarm bells. Yet.

 

[tourrider]

It'll only turn into a panic if Hamas invades us from Canada.... which now that I think about it is probably not that farfetched. I may go order another case of 5.56.

They’re already in country. Been a steady flow of military aged men walking across our borders for a few years now.

 

[Zaicran]

This post reminds me...

 

[Uncle Duke]

Already on it...

Smart move.