China's recent shutdowns

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  • Gordon

    Ultimate Member
    Feb 20, 2011
    1,133
    Baltimore City
    Anyone following the latest on China shutting down their cities and the impact it will have on goods shipped out? If I heard correctly that close to 400 million are locked down. This results in no one going to work which will in effect have a direct impact to shortages that will be unheard of. Your thoughts
     

    Sirex

    Powered by natural gas
    Oct 30, 2010
    10,459
    Westminster, MD
    Yikes. A lot of our copier/wide format parts are made in China, as well as new equipment. We are already having trouble getting some parts and replacement equipment. I see it getting worse, but just about everything is made in China. Batteries, printer ink, electronics, toys, cheap plastic cups, plates, just about everything.
     

    Baccusboy

    Teecha, teecha
    Oct 10, 2010
    14,029
    Seoul
    Part of me wonders if they aren’t doing this on purpose in order to cover for the fact that they are losing business to other countries, anyway. They now have an excuse to save face.

    I also think they’re molding their population to prepare for war.
     

    RJRjr

    Active Member
    Aug 26, 2017
    505
    cecil county
    As long as I can get food I don't give a shyt about chinese goods. Yeah I realize that as a country we are dependant on such crap . But I'm low tech and not into the latest phones, computers or other electronics. Stay out of walmart and dont shop on amazon.
     

    Alea Jacta Est

    Extinguished member
    MDS Supporter
    Mom n Pop groceries, general stores, road side stands, etc used to be the backbone of America. Turns out they were not profitable for the right folks.

    when you lose and or give away (or sell to the highest “low cost“ bidder) your local capacity, you increase your vulnerability

    these dont appear to be unanticipated or unintended consequences…to me anyways
     

    dieselfarmboy

    Ultimate Member
    Feb 5, 2009
    3,005
    Snow Hill, MD
    The world as we know it will never be the same. We have doomed our self by having to have the latest and greatest. Most items produced with a computer chip are not able to be repaired in the future if parts are not available.
     

    Mark75H

    MD Wear&Carry Instructor
    Industry Partner
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 25, 2011
    17,302
    Outside the Gates
    As long as I can get food I don't give a shyt about chinese goods. Yeah I realize that as a country we are dependant on such crap . But I'm low tech and not into the latest phones, computers or other electronics. Stay out of walmart and dont shop on amazon.
    Stunning amount of our food is processed in China. Yes, grown here, shipped there, processed and shipped back.


    If you think the Everstuck was just hauling printer parts, you are mistaken.
     

    RJRjr

    Active Member
    Aug 26, 2017
    505
    cecil county
    Stunning amount of our food is processed in China. Yes, grown here, shipped there, processed and shipped back.


    If you think the Everstuck was just hauling printer parts, you are mistaken.
    Grown here,shipped to china then sent back? Defenitely not interested in eating that and if I see the word china on anything I try to avoid. Love farmers markets and local produce and meats . But yeah I realize that we have a dependancy problem.
     

    Mark75H

    MD Wear&Carry Instructor
    Industry Partner
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 25, 2011
    17,302
    Outside the Gates
    FoodTrade_Wilson-1024x791.jpg


    Some amount of processed chicken should also be on the list, but I have not found a reference to how much, only that the USDA started allowing it years back.
     

    GunBum

    Active Member
    Feb 21, 2018
    751
    SW Missouri
    The company I work for does substantial business in China. I’m on the phone with our QA/QC guys over there at least once a week, and for part of the year daily. They have all been concerned about the latest lockdowns not because they are being locked down, but because the largest port we use (Shanghai) is locked down. Most of China is still under no/limited COVID restrictions.
     

    lazarus

    Ultimate Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    13,757
    Anyone following the latest on China shutting down their cities and the impact it will have on goods shipped out? If I heard correctly that close to 400 million are locked down. This results in no one going to work which will in effect have a direct impact to shortages that will be unheard of. Your thoughts
    It’s about a tenth that many (it is not a third of the country). But yes it is having some major impacts.
     

    lazarus

    Ultimate Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    13,757
    Are we going to learn from this and bring back jobs (at least the "critical ones")?.............








    Nope :mad54:
    A shit ton of companies are. But when you’ve spent 30 years moving production and jobs overseas you don’t turn that around in 2 years. Especially not because supply chain issues are hurting the “build machines to build the machines to make the thing” part of setting up new factories or refurbing old ones. Plus historic low unemployment is making it hard to find people willing to work the jobs no matter the pay. A lot of what is coming back is highly automated. So production might be coming back, but maybe only with a fifth or a tenth of the jobs.
     

    Allen65

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Jun 29, 2013
    7,198
    Anne Arundel County
    A shit ton of companies are. But when you’ve spent 30 years moving production and jobs overseas you don’t turn that around in 2 years. Especially not because supply chain issues are hurting the “build machines to build the machines to make the thing” part of setting up new factories or refurbing old ones. Plus historic low unemployment is making it hard to find people willing to work the jobs no matter the pay. A lot of what is coming back is highly automated. So production might be coming back, but maybe only with a fifth or a tenth of the jobs.
    Unfortunately that job-reducing automation is the only way we stay competitive in the long run, to keep the industries here once we get them back.
     

    lazarus

    Ultimate Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    13,757
    Unfortunately that job-reducing automation is the only way we stay competitive in the long run, to keep the industries here once we get them back.
    Always would be. Unless Americans decide they are okay working 54 hours a week (9/6) for about a third of the pay they make at 40hrs a week…

    Or anything American made is going to have to cost at least 20-200% more depending on how much of the cost is labor. Shorter logistics can offset some of that. That is in part why some stuff has come back.

    Of course we are seeing other costs of risk. If you can’t even make your product that costs you a lot more than higher manufacturing costs if you have nothing to sell.

    Not to be all socialist about it, but it is something we are going to need to figure out. At some point we can pretty much automate away almost any job. What do you do then if all your economy needs is 50 million jobs, but you’ve got 250 million working age people? Some might just be change the work week. Maybe 20hrs a week is full time and you employee twice as many people. Do we ban automating things? It’s been one of the issues of industrialization. People have gotten more efficient in producing things, but most of that benefit goes to rich people, not the people doing the work.
     

    Allen65

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Jun 29, 2013
    7,198
    Anne Arundel County
    Always would be. Unless Americans decide they are okay working 54 hours a week (9/6) for about a third of the pay they make at 40hrs a week…

    Or anything American made is going to have to cost at least 20-200% more depending on how much of the cost is labor. Shorter logistics can offset some of that. That is in part why some stuff has come back.

    Of course we are seeing other costs of risk. If you can’t even make your product that costs you a lot more than higher manufacturing costs if you have nothing to sell.

    Not to be all socialist about it, but it is something we are going to need to figure out. At some point we can pretty much automate away almost any job. What do you do then if all your economy needs is 50 million jobs, but you’ve got 250 million working age people? Some might just be change the work week. Maybe 20hrs a week is full time and you employee twice as many people. Do we ban automating things? It’s been one of the issues of industrialization. People have gotten more efficient in producing things, but most of that benefit goes to rich people, not the people doing the work.
    If the total economic output can grow fast and high enough, you can absorb the productivity increases without losing jobs. The trillion dollar question is how to sustain such an economic perpetual motion machine.
     

    dieselfarmboy

    Ultimate Member
    Feb 5, 2009
    3,005
    Snow Hill, MD
    Always would be. Unless Americans decide they are okay working 54 hours a week (9/6) for about a third of the pay they make at 40hrs a week…

    Or anything American made is going to have to cost at least 20-200% more depending on how much of the cost is labor. Shorter logistics can offset some of that. That is in part why some stuff has come back.

    Of course we are seeing other costs of risk. If you can’t even make your product that costs you a lot more than higher manufacturing costs if you have nothing to sell.

    Not to be all socialist about it, but it is something we are going to need to figure out. At some point we can pretty much automate away almost any job. What do you do then if all your economy needs is 50 million jobs, but you’ve got 250 million working age people? Some might just be change the work week. Maybe 20hrs a week is full time and you employee twice as many people. Do we ban automating things? It’s been one of the issues of industrialization. People have gotten more efficient in producing things, but most of that benefit goes to rich people, not the people doing the work.
    This is why they was probably hoping Covid would wipe out a bigger part of the population. Also the lock downs are conditioning people of being locked away in there home.
     

    Mark75H

    MD Wear&Carry Instructor
    Industry Partner
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 25, 2011
    17,302
    Outside the Gates
    If the total economic output can grow fast and high enough, you can absorb the productivity increases without losing jobs. The trillion dollar question is how to sustain such an economic perpetual motion machine.

    How can economic output truly increase without increasing wealth?
     

    lazarus

    Ultimate Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    13,757
    If the total economic output can grow fast and high enough, you can absorb the productivity increases without losing jobs. The trillion dollar question is how to sustain such an economic perpetual motion machine.
    It isn't necessarily a perpetual motion machine, but it is difficult to do. Especially with very disruptive productivity increases or total dislocation of labor. Economies always adjust, but the larger the shock, the longer and harder it is to adjust. If in, say, 10 years we have viable self driving trucks what do we do? That's something like 7 million jobs in the US. It would be a massive boon to other areas of the economy. No way we'd replace all trucks overnight, but think companies wouldn't have orders in immediately? You'd probably find 90+% of truckers unemployed within 5 years. Agricultural work, automated pickers and harvesters are becoming more and more common and more and more efficient. That is millions of jobs. Etc. At some point you end up with narrow job categories where people can work. What happens if we figure out a way to make androids that might not be real AI, but are sufficiently programmable and human in physical abilities. Do you need a dozen guys working at your tire shop? Or just 2 or 3 guys who supervise the 3 or 4 androids that can do all of the work to mount and balance tires? Or the auto shop that has 6 androids that can do all of the vehicle repairs? Maybe you just need a few humans as the service managers because people like talking to other people. At some point there are only so many people who can really manage "supervising" automation, even if it doesn't take being some computer programmer to do, or who can manage whatever "thinking" jobs are left in the economy if basically all of the "doing" jobs are automated.

    A lot of that may not happen in my lifetime (which I HOPE is at least another 40 years). But some of it will. Especially the self-driving vehicles and agricultural automation.
     

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