Preparing For Spreading Coronavirus

[lazarus]

I have a greater risk of dying when/if my wife finds out how many guns I have bought. Just saying, weighing the risks.

What’s your age? Any pre-existing conditions? If you are over 70 and have any health conditions your odds are probably about 2 in 15 or dying from it.

If your 30s and in decent health like me, it’s probably only about 1 in 200. I personally don’t like those odds. That’s about 50x more likely to die from it than if I got the flu. Much more likely to die from COVID than viral or bacterial pneumonia. My brother was only 42 and died from pneumonia.

 

[willtill]

I don’t think you understand math.

The flu in average kills less than .1% of the people it infects and hospitalizes about 1%.

COVID-19 hospitalizes 19%. So 19x more likely to end up in a hospital. It kills about 3.4% on the lower end up to about 10% when proper medical treatment can’t be received. So more than 100x more fatal than the flu. It has an R0 or around 2.5. Flu is 1.3. That means it is about twice as infectious as the flu.

Twice as infectious, around 40+x more deadly.

In 3-4 weeks we’ll have more dead in the US than the flu this year. In 2 months we will have 10-20x as many dead as the flu.

I can offer you suggestions on geometric/exponential curves if you’d like as well as epidemiology.

But CDC, Imperial college researchers, WHO, American Hospital Association are estimating from a low end of 500k dead in the US to about 2 million and those are ALL assuming we take drastic measures. And that’s only at 1 year. If we don’t come up with a vaccine or a treatment for 2 or more years, the numbers will be much higher.

Do nothing scenario is way. Way. Worse.

Sobering. Completely.

 

[Sirex]

Are the 3m 1820 masks any good for a little prevention?
I can get some and want to get them to family but if there not good for this I'll pass.

I have read mixed reports. On the ABC News tonight, I was hearing medical staff in Italy who were fully dressed in gowns, N95 masks, face shields, and gloves were still getting Covid 19. Now, it isn't certain whether the the virus in the quantities they see daily, is getting thru the barriers, or tired medical professionals are inadvertently touching their face at some point transferring the virus.

I have also heard, just having some mask, reduces the amount a person touches their face. I don't think we'll fully know until much later on unfortunately.

 

[Sirex]

What’s your age? Any pre-existing conditions? If you are over 70 and have any health conditions your odds are probably about 2 in 15 or dying from it.

If your 30s and in decent health like me, it’s probably only about 1 in 200. I personally don’t like those odds. That’s about 50x more likely to die from it than if I got the flu. Much more likely to die from COVID than viral or bacterial pneumonia. My brother was only 42 and died from pneumonia.

LOL, I mainly made that statement as a bit of sarcasm to lighten the mood. But, I am 44, slightly over weight (Dad bod). My pre-existing conditions are marriage and high blood pressure.

 

[willtill]

LOL, I mainly made that statement as a bit of sarcasm to lighten the mood. But, I am 44, slightly over weight (Dad bod). My pre-existing conditions are marriage and high blood pressure.

Theoretically, you're safe. You're not going anywhere until she is done with you

 

[fidelity]

I have read mixed reports. On the ABC News tonight, I was hearing medical staff in Italy who were fully dressed in gowns, N95 masks, face shields, and gloves were still getting Covid 19. Now, it isn't certain whether the the virus in the quantities they see daily, is getting thru the barriers, or tired medical professionals are inadvertently touching their face at some point transferring the virus.


...

If the virus is well spread in Lombardy, and say half the people are infected, they could be picking it up through community transmission, when they're not gowned and on their way home or mingling with others.

They haven't been in a position to test people unless they are symptomatic. There's been an ongoing concern that they have many 20-40 year olds that are infected, asymptomatic, and are untested ... and this group is serving as a virus reservoir to infect others.

 

[MykR0k]

Frankly, if this is done correctly, people will be complaining that “too much was done”. I’m fine with that.

I'm NOT fine with that, not by a long shot! The alarmists (some intentionally) are setting us up to massive government expansion and controls every time some jack-wit, self-righteous expert claims the world is going to end. Not to mention, the national debt explodes, tax revenues plummet and many businesses go under. Thanks for the loss of freedoms, massive unemployment and steel-toe boot kick in the financial nuts, NO THANK YOU!

I will tell you that I am very motivated by the idea that I may be put in a position to actively deny care to someone or decide who gets a ventilator and who doesn’t. That is a very realistic fear for me.

That's understandable but meaningless when actions create far worse problems than they solve. I'm not pointing a finger at you, but all this hysteria and fear is HORSE SHIT. Many of my fellow Americans need to grow a pair!

It won’t be you doing that soul crushing task. You’ll still be bitching on the internet.

Not sure you’re meaning but I’m involved in COVID-19 neck deep, day in and day out which is why I’m so sure it’s HORSE SHIT. This isn’t my first rodeo either.

Your ignorance is glaring when you talk about Covid-19 and compare it to influenza. FWIW.....Covid-19 IS A FVUCKING PANDEMIC.

I’m glad you brought that up, it’s time for the meat so let’s use some real information and compare. I love facts, they work like my favorite Glock! BTW, these numbers in the first two categories are on the high side.

COVID-19 (Per CDC, Worldwide (pandemic), December 2019 to Present)
Illnesses – 250,000
Deaths – 10,000

COVID-19 (Per CDC, America only, January 2020 to Present)
Illnesses – 8,500
Deaths – 100

Common Flu (Per CDC, America Only, October 2019 to Present)
Illnesses – 38,000,000 to 54,000,000
Hospitalizations – 390,000 to 710,000
Deaths – 23,000 to 59,000

Compare the data, do the math and extrapolate anyway you want and it shows what’s happening in America with COVID-19 is HORSE SHIT!

 

[willtill]

~Snip~

COVID-19 (Per CDC, Worldwide (pandemic), December 2019 to Present)
Illnesses – 250,000
Deaths – 10,000

COVID-19 (Per CDC, America only, January 2020 to Present)
Illnesses – 8,500
Deaths – 100

Common Flu (Per CDC, America Only, October 2019 to Present)
Illnesses – 38,000,000 to 54,000,000
Hospitalizations – 390,000 to 710,000
Deaths – 23,000 to 59,000

Compare the data, do the math and extrapolate anyway you want and it shows what’s happening in America with COVID-19 is HORSE SHIT!

COVID-19 just got started. It hasn't completed it's run yet...

Not sure how you can be comfortable with the comparison you posted.

That fat lady recently took the stage and is still singing.

 

[Alan3413]

Theoretically, you're safe. You're not going anywhere until she is done with you

That is, unless she upped your insurance lately.

 

[MykR0k]

COVID-19 just got started. It hasn't completed it's run yet...

Not sure how you can be comfortable with the comparison you posted.

That fat lady recently took the stage and is still singing.

Look at China and their numbers, if you trust them. Double those numbers anyway and take into account that Wuhan is already getting back to normal. The illnesses and deaths are still behind Americas common flu and China has four times our population within the same square miles respectively.

Our common flue is still far worse but nobody gives a rats butt about that ... why not?

 

[fidelity]

...
Let me ask you a question. How do you or anyone else know COVID-19 is going to be the next pandemic if we don't take drastic measures? Please explain the data that warrants your decisions. I'm sincerely listening and will evaluate. Don't worry, I can figure out the details and will publicly admit if your data shows the need for this hysteria.

...

In the meantime, I'll await your information.

I'm still awaiting your response too in this or the other mega thread when I addressed some of the specious reasoning you were using and asked you a question to better support your position. Are you going to address this? If you're calling out others, please do the same.

...
Not sure you’re meaning but I’m involved in COVID-19 neck deep, day in and day out which is why I’m so sure it’s HORSE SHIT. This isn’t my first rodeo either.
...

In what capacity? A lab tech? Postdoc? You're presenting yourself as experienced and perhaps an authority. I've helped groups at USAMRIID (and know at least one past Commander who thinks this outbreak is very serious), CDC, NIH, and FDA. Plenty of experience with different deadly viruses. My trainees go to direct their own research groups.

You seem to struggle with extrapolating what a new outbreak can inflict by conflating it with much more widely spread diseases.

By this criteria, Ebola isn't a concern. After all, it's killed only around 15,000 since 1976. Why should we bother to contain outbreaks?

...

I’m glad you brought that up, it’s time for the meat so let’s use some real information and compare. I love facts, they work like my favorite Glock! BTW, these numbers in the first two categories are on the high side.

COVID-19 (Per CDC, Worldwide (pandemic), December 2019 to Present)
Illnesses – 250,000
Deaths – 10,000

COVID-19 (Per CDC, America only, January 2020 to Present)
Illnesses – 8,500
Deaths – 100

Common Flu (Per CDC, America Only, October 2019 to Present)
Illnesses – 38,000,000 to 54,000,000
Hospitalizations – 390,000 to 710,000
Deaths – 23,000 to 59,000

Compare the data, do the math and extrapolate anyway you want and it shows what’s happening in America with COVID-19 is HORSE SHIT!

This is the foundation of your argument. Do you understand why it undermines your argument? The brand new virus is spreading more efficiently than flu. When it catches up to flu in spread, what sort of deaths would we see?

If you were 30 years old when Bill Gates was born, yeah, you would have earned a lot more money than Bill Gates at that point. When all is said and done, do you think you'd still be wealthier? Maybe you would be more handsome as Gates isn't the most dashing individual.

 

[Blacksmith101]

Perhaps the next Pandemic will target the intellectually challenged and thereby improve the gene pool.

 

[Brychan]

I won't get into a back and forth on this situation. I had worked in Biotechnology for over 30 years with the last 21 of those years as section head of formulation and fill for the pilot biological facility at Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. I have worked with the CDC, WHO, Darpa, and just about every major and even more small bio companies from dozens of countries. So I am not a virologist, I have worked with a lot of them. Because of the ease of infection, length of symptom free incubation, this is probably one of the worse case scenarios in our life time. Unless some of these drugs they are trying or going to try work very well or if it peters out on its own it will get very bad.

In other news from other parts of the country, my brother in Tucson decided to go to a Costco there yesterday. He stood in line for about 45 minutes to get in, paper goods, spam, tuna, bread, eggs, and most meats wiped out. He wound up getting only coffee, a lack of brats and some cheese.

 

[FrankOceanXray]

What a wealth of well trained, experienced folks here.

It makes me recall Paul Stamets. He is a leading mushroom expert. He had mentioned before involvement in programs for bio security at the national level. Certain mushrooms are incredible for immunity support. Turkey tail being used in cancer research, as an example.

Has anyone's work explored this more?

YouTube Paul Stamets. He holds patents, prestigious awards, presented to many groups. I don't see him as a quakc.

 

[Norton]

I don’t claim the sky is falling. I don’t know exactly what’s going to happen. Frankly, if this is done correctly, people will be complaining that “too much was done”. I’m fine with that.

I think this is where people generally need to get their heads; into the "we just don't know enough" category and that because there is no natural immunity to this that we need to be cautious as a means of preventing as many people from getting sick as possible.

It's a lot like nuclear war, just because one didn't happen, doesn't mean that it wasn't dangerously close a lot of times.

 

[Norton]

I have read mixed reports. On the ABC News tonight, I was hearing medical staff in Italy who were fully dressed in gowns, N95 masks, face shields, and gloves were still getting Covid 19. Now, it isn't certain whether the the virus in the quantities they see daily, is getting thru the barriers, or tired medical professionals are inadvertently touching their face at some point transferring the virus.

I have also heard, just having some mask, reduces the amount a person touches their face. I don't think we'll fully know until much later on unfortunately.

If the virus is well spread in Lombardy, and say half the people are infected, they could be picking it up through community transmission, when they're not gowned and on their way home or mingling with others.

They haven't been in a position to test people unless they are symptomatic. There's been an ongoing concern that they have many 20-40 year olds that are infected, asymptomatic, and are untested ... and this group is serving as a virus reservoir to infect others.

It's just the mathematics of being immersed in it so much. It's no different than being a teacher in a "normal" flu/cold season; it doesn't matter how careful you are, you are drowning in germs constantly and it only takes a single lapse even if you get it right 1000 times.

 

[ironpony]

Well I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night and I know my horse shit!


But seriously, do we know enough about this thing, given healthcare in this country, spring break kids, Trump ptsd, in an election year, etc. to compare it to any previous model? Are we actually giving one year out predictions on something we have only tested ? ~ .05% of the (our) population?
And is 1 cup to 1 gallon a deadly bleach:water ratio for this new virus on surfaces? I’m spraying this around the barn (lead shanks, gates, brushes etc)?

 

[rob]

.

 

[Blaster229]

I have 40 pounds of rice. Always have some on hand. I hate going out shopping the past month having total strangers think I'm a hoarder when in fact I'm just doing my couple times a week regular shopping. Picking up extra stuff every shopping trip street moving up here has paid off.

 

[pbharvey]

What a wealth of well trained, experienced folks here.

You can say that again. I really appreciate those of you taking time to post solid informative information here.