Larry Hogan current position 2A

[Kman]

The Hogan campaign is optimistic. They know they will lose the usual 101% Democratic areas.

The key is turnout. If all the Republicans show up in a place like Anne Arundel County, Hogan will be in.

The key is turnout. The wife is making phone calls this morning to help that effort.

And some God awful weather on election day might not hurt either.

 

[danb]

Thank you for sharing the link. It is worth reading the article because it makes it explicit that this poll was not conducted on behalf of either candidate and is not an internal poll. If it is a non partisan poll, why not release it? Hogan would have appreciated the fact that it demonstrates Brown's weakness. Though the fact that Hogan consistently hovers at 40% is deeply troubling.

I want Hogan to win. I also want people to be realistic. It isn't impossible and Ehrlich did it in 2002. However, KKT was an incredibly poor candidate. Brown has shades of KKT, but the demographics of the state have shifted further in the favor of Democrats. An easy example is the tremendous growth in Frederick county driven by DC suburb expansion.

They did release it. Center Maryland was founded by former Democratic Party officials like Steve Kearney, who was MOMs close political advisor and served as O’Malley’s communications chief (see here: http://redmaryland.blogspot.com/2010/01/centrist-facade-of-center-maryland.html#.VA4jcmP9XFk).

As far as I am concerned anything that comes from Center Maryland may as well have come from the Brown campaign. What, you think some random pollster came up to Center Maryland and showed them a poll?

You can't win if you don't play the game. You are right, its an uphill climb. But having people on the bench, because "realism" is not the way to help.

 

[Abacab]

They did release it. Center Maryland was founded by former Democratic Party officials like Steve Kearney, who was MOMs close political advisor and served as O’Malley’s communications chief (see here: http://redmaryland.blogspot.com/2010/01/centrist-facade-of-center-maryland.html#.VA4jcmP9XFk).

As far as I am concerned anything that comes from Center Maryland may as well have come from the Brown campaign. What, you think some random pollster came up to Center Maryland and showed them a poll?

You can't win if you don't play the game. You are right, its an uphill climb. But having people on the bench, because "realism" is not the way to help.

So you admit the poll isn't an internal poll? You're contention now is the website where it is posted is merely an extension of the Brown campaign and therefore a pseudo internal poll? Why would a Brown campaign sympathizer openly discuss a poll that makes Brown look less than inevitable?

Read the article again, the link you provided says the poll was conducted by a "highly reputable D.C. based pollster" with no name attached. I don't consider that an officially released poll. If you can point me to the officially released poll, I will happily admit that I am wrong about the only poll out there being the MD GOP poll.

I don't know who came to Center Maryland with the poll. You don't either. You're assuming without any evidence (that I know of or has been provided; I admit it could be out there). Just be honest about it.

Your suggestion that I am "bench sitting" without any evidence fits perfectly with this whole narrative the race is a toss-up. I WANT it to be a toss-up, but from everything I can see, it isn't.

If "realism" and reading the sourced information in front of me is bench sitting, then I guess I am keeping the bench quite warm.

 

[danb]

If "realism" and reading the sourced information in front of me is bench sitting, then I guess I am keeping the bench quite warm.

This is why Marylander's can't have nice things.

 

[Abacab]

This is why Marylander's can't have nice things.

I'm sorry, I'm not sure how noting the lack of facts somehow makes me culpable for the current state of affairs in MD politics?

 

[danb]

I'm sorry, I'm not sure how noting the lack of facts somehow makes me culpable for the current state of affairs in MD politics?

I think you are missing the point. It's not a question of realism, its a question of motivation. I can show just about any answer in any poll I want based on who I project to show up at the polls. Pick a turnout model based on 2002, I get one answer. Pick a turnout model based on 2010, I get a different answer. With a state as small as MD, I might be lucky to have people answer the poll outside of Central Maryland, so there is a lot of potential error, and a lot of projecting the past into the future.

If I have one poll at Brown +14, and another at Brown +6, the question is, what is so different about the turnout?

If Center Maryland leaks a poll that shows Brown at (only) +6, it means they think there is a turnout scenario with a tight race (Dems stay home, some Gansler Dems vote for Hogan, etc.). Is one more realistic than the other? If Brown is wrong and his strategy on social issues fails to motivate people, he'll lose. Impossible to say until after the first debate.

If Hogan loses by a small margin, people who kept people home by sapping motivation are fully culpable for the state of MD politics.

 

[rico903]

Only saw one debate and I can't can't find my notes but IIRC, Hogan was the only one who said he was in favor of CCW. The rest only said they supported 2A rights, dodged the CCW. If I'm wrong I'm sure someone will correct me.

 

[deMontjoie]

I'm sorry, I'm not sure how noting the lack of facts somehow makes me culpable for the current state of affairs in MD politics?

Ok. I'll admit that electing any non-DEM to statewide office in MD is an uphill climb with a heavy pack. Not everyone is prepared for such an effort.
That is understandable. I hear that from a great many folks who are strongly Pro-2A.

In that case, instead of being inactive, please pick a local candidate where the race is more competitive -- they ARE out there. Donate and volunteer on behalf of that local candidate. Throw-out a few incumbents and the message might start being heard up in Annapolis. At least it's a start.

Every strong Pro-2A citizen needs to be off of the bench this time around -- working on behalf of somebody. Maybe not Larry Hogan, but at at least somebody. This is a unique year where the nation should be skewed against the DEMS -- we need maximum effort to take advantage of this.

 

[chevellenut71]

14+ points?!

Crap. I better start looking for jobs in Virginia.

Try Voting.

 

[Straightshooter]

Only saw one debate and I can't can't find my notes but IIRC, Hogan was the only one who said he was in favor of CCW. The rest only said they supported 2A rights, dodged the CCW. If I'm wrong I'm sure someone will correct me.

Well here I am. It was Craig who openly stated that he was for concealed carry. Hogan gave the "I support the 2A" answer.

 

[Skins_Brew]

Honestly, Hogan needs to keep quiet about the 2A, gays, and anything else that could give Brown ammo.

Imagine if you will, Hogan makes a public statement where he says he supports CCW. Brown is going to take that clip, cut it in with images of police lights and crime scene tape, and totally spin it to make it look super evil. He will do the same thing if Hogan makes any public statement about gays, abortion, etc.

Look, I wish we lived somewhere where our candidate could use the 2A as a rally cry, but we live in Maryland. As someone mentioned, this is going to be about turnout. The more ammo you give Brown, the greater chance you might have more DEM turnout to vote against Hogan. We do not want to give the democrat voters a chance to get off their ass and show up.

 

[Abacab]

I just want to come back to this thread and eat crow. Congratulations to Gov-elect Hogan!

 

[jasonk1229]