camo556
Ultimate Member
- Aug 29, 2021
- 2,634
No need to go back to the beginning since MSP told us on the zoom call 8/4 that there were 25,000 apps submitted post Bruen (as of that date), of which 18,000 had been accepted and 6100 approved. We can start from then.
Permit numbers that week were ~47xxx. So generally I agree that there have been 10k approvals since 8/4 on top of the 6.1 k as of 8/4, for about 16k total. No way to know how thats split between renewals and new apps. They still have issued more permits in 9 weeks than all new permits of 2021!
We also have the additional data sent by 2A Maryland (https://myemail.constantcontact.com...---18.html?soid=1126946810232&aid=0XChTkhEEsA) that there were 34,000 apps post-Bruen as of 8/23. And YTD apps are split 80/20 new applications.
There is another zoom call 9/14 so we will be able to benchmark our estimates.
However you slice the data:
* Permits 6/23- 8/23 averaged 3900/week
* Permits 8/4-8/23 averaged 3300/week
* Approvals are averaging ~2000-2400/week. Still.
We seem to have these great days when 600 are approved, but its choppy.
The backlog is still growing faster than the approvals. Caution: Infinite wait time ahead.
At the current processing rate, we will be at the point that those who submitted in early August will have a >60 day wait (1st week in Oct), and those who submitted in late August will wait the full 90 days (thanksgiving approval).
Those who submitted in the last two weeks are already over the 90 day wait.... unless MSP really picks up the pace.
MSP has done a fantastic job, I am not criticizing. I am merely pointing out that we still have a long way to go before we where submission-approval ~ 60 day steady state.
