4th Circuit Court of Appeals Decision seems destined to reach the Supreme Court

[lennyk]

MSI is quiet on the plans. As well as they should be. This case will not make it to SCOTUS. Too much at stake for the rest of the nation with regards to their own laws. I am certain that there already has been a meeting of the minds at the State level to formulate a strategy. They did not expect this decision. Irregardless of Mr Frosh's plans, I hope MSI already has filed for a hearing in Judge Blake's court. I do not think one has to wait to see what the other side is doing in terms of pursuing own goals.

 

[CrazySanMan]

We got the ruling last week.

Literally 2 weeks for a notice of appeal for en banc request: 17 Feb 2016
Assuming that takes CA4 30 days to rule: 17 Mar 2016
60 days to file for cert: 17 May 2016
Docket from SCOTUS probably around 1 Jun 2016, with briefing schedule
We are looking at briefing over summer recess (court's term Ends 30 Jun 2016)
Summer conference? (Aug 2016)
Release of orders, sometime in Sept. 2016 to get a ya or nay on cert
IF granted (remember this is just on the scrutiny test) we are talking probably winter of 17 for arguments (maybe fall of 16 if we are lucky)
Order on just the scrutiny no sooner than 30 Jun 2017

Then we get remand all the way back to the district court to be scheduled and argued (if this goes to SCOTUS now, assuming cert is granted). So we aren't until at earliest until let's say 1/1/18 until some finalization, then we get to go through this again (at least to CA4 on the full merits).

That timeline assumes, Frosh is denied en banc, petitions for cert (at this stage on just the scrutiny and NOT the facts/merits), and is granted cert. Knock six months to a year off if cert is denied in summer of '17.

I'll assume, based on SCOTUS's lack of interest in gun cases lately, along with yesterday's EPA emissions regs that has told the lower courts & lawyers to stop accelerating the process to get to SCOTUS and develop the full record for their review, my best guess is cert will be denied at this point. That too, is why I think CA4 didn't rule on just the motions from district, and remanded this for more development along with scrutiny guidance and some findings of fact.

In reality, based on yesterday's EPA loss, I think CA4 sees the larger picture, knowing this will go to SCOTUS, but it's just a question of time.

If/when Frosh appeals the CA4 ruling, if it goes to SCOTUS and they take the case and remand it back to district, does that establish national precedence for SS in 2A cases?

 

[Inigoes]

If/when Frosh appeals the CA4 ruling, if it goes to SCOTUS and they take the case and remand it back to district, does that establish national precedence for SS in 2A cases?

SS for 2A cases in the home

 

[fred333]

To both of your points, IANAL, but I'm assuming the circuit could find Blake in contempt if she does not follow their order (assuming it stands up to en banc request and cert).

That's fine if the next court's decision were to become the last. But that's not likely. This case was always headed for the Supreme Court, which, considering that the court's current constitutional mean falls somewhere between the judicial views of PAA and Bernie Sanders, is what concerns me.

 

[Blacksmith101]

That's fine if the next court's decision were to become the last. But that's not likely. This case was always headed for the Supreme Court, which, considering that the court's current constitutional mean falls somewhere between the judicial views of PAA and Bernie Sanders, is what concerns me.

By the time it gets heard probably at least Ginsberg will be gone the real question will be who picks her successor?

 

[fightinbluhen51]

MSI is quiet on the plans. As well as they should be. This case will not make it to SCOTUS. Too much at stake for the rest of the nation with regards to their own laws. I am certain that there already has been a meeting of the minds at the State level to formulate a strategy. They did not expect this decision. Irregardless of Mr Frosh's plans, I hope MSI already has filed for a hearing in Judge Blake's court. I do not think one has to wait to see what the other side is doing in terms of pursuing own goals.

The legislature is already doubling down.

The only way this stops is if they are neutered once. Even then, they will keep trying.