We have an MSP Head

[dblas]

I could not find it - when the confirm hearing is? Has it been schedule yet?

Nope, confirmation has not been scheduled.

 

[danb]

Thanks. I wonder if they will get to it before gun bills in the Senate.

 

[Bald Fat Guy]

In jurisdictions where permits are issued at county level , I have heard of 15% , and there may well be higher somewhere. But on a statewide basis , the highest I have seen is 6% .

But .44Man does have a point. For example in KY , even before permits were available , open carry AND loaded glove box carry were legal. In environment like that , a certain % of the public will be reasonably satisfied with that. But of course , Md is the opposite , and would be a factor encreasing demand for permits here.

 

[BeoBill]

In jurisdictions where permits are issued at county level , I have heard of 15% , and there may well be higher somewhere. But on a statewide basis , the highest I have seen is 6% .

But .44Man does have a point. For example in KY , even before permits were available , open carry AND loaded glove box carry were legal. In environment like that , a certain % of the public will be reasonably satisfied with that. But of course , Md is the opposite , and would be a factor encreasing demand for permits here.

Emphasis added.

Realistically there are two Marylands. The DC Suburbs (including Baltimore) would continue to oppose any even ever-so-slight increase in 2A rights for their serfs, while the rest of the state would applaud it.

 

[Bald Fat Guy]

I was meaning that Md is the opposite as regarding restriction on even unloaded transport , much less loaded carry contained in 4-203 . Meaning that in Md a Permit is required for virtually any situation of having a handgun even somewhat available on a day to day basis. The conversation about the geographic and political splits in Md , while true, are also by now cliche.

But to use my other example , KY also has similar splits . In one respect there is the Louisville- Lexington urban corridor vs the rest of the state. Lexington and Louisville have their own cultural clashes , but between them and respective 'burbs have all the population and political control.

 

[44man]

Emphasis added.

Realistically there are two Marylands. The DC Suburbs (including Baltimore) would continue to oppose any even ever-so-slight increase in 2A rights for their serfs, while the rest of the state would applaud it.

the government has it gerrymandered so its central me vs all the rest of the state. its a sham.

 

[Tomcat]

What is the source of your 10% number? From the numbers I've seen published it is around 6% in Pennsylvania, 4% in Virginia and 5% in West Virginia

Let's consider for a moment that 6% figure of the number of adults in Maryland who would apply for a carry permit.

Currently the population of the state of Maryland is 5.976 million. On average, a state's population of adults is about 76%, although that's usually for age 18 or older, so for the moment, while we're spit-balling here, we'll call the Population 5.9 million even, and we'll round down to 75% of that for the number of adults in the state. Everyone following so far?

75% of 5.9 million people is 4,425,000, and 6% of that is 265,000.

Now let's take that 265,000 and multiply it by the $75 first time CCW application fee and we get:

$19,912,500

Even at 6% of the adult population, nearly $20 million dollars worth of cheddar is nothing to sneeze at.

Now let's factor in the $50 renewal fee every two years. Let's say that we lose a few and gain a few every time, so we'll generalize and say that annually we'll get around 250,000 people renewing or applying at an average of $67.50 per application, and we get $16,875,000 annually.

These numbers are likely high, but that's the potential, and it's even more if we get more than 6% of the adult population.

How is this not a good thing for the state?

The 6% is probably a good figure. Found this while looking for some stats for Gun Day testimony. Illinois just last year was forced by the courts to issue permits, here's the breakdown from last year and if you do the math it comes out very close to what trickg has posted. Illinois population is roughly 13 million vs Maryland 6 million. If you do the math from the numbers in the chart and then take 1/2 it comes out very close to what has been posted.
http://www.isp.state.il.us/docs/2014FSBCCLStats.pdf

 

[NoFro]

the government has it gerrymandered so its central me vs all the rest of the state. its a sham.

I'd say that's a result of the demographics and geography of the state.

The sham is the gerrymandering ensures that the central region always wins.

 

[danb]

The 6% is probably a good figure. Found this while looking for some stats for Gun Day testimony. Illinois just last year was forced by the courts to issue permits, here's the breakdown from last year and if you do the math it comes out very close to what trickg has posted. Illinois population is roughly 13 million vs Maryland 6 million. If you do the math from the numbers in the chart and then take 1/2 it comes out very close to what has been posted.
http://www.isp.state.il.us/docs/2014FSBCCLStats.pdf

This is sensible math, the real question is: What will be the cost to administer it. The MSP is just not staffed to process all these applications, do all these interviews, and so on.

Even if the CCW process was limited to the fingerprint/background check ala HQL, they would need 10x the number of people doing this as they have now for HQL.

... then add interviews...

At current staffing levels, my guess is they could process 20-30k applications a year. For this math to make sense: 1) requirements like interviews need to be eliminated; 2) we need know know what the staffing requirements are.

 

[Straightshooter]

Wasn't there a game plan published by the MSP as to how they would handle the barrage of applications if the state lost the Woollard case? I think they based their plan on getting something like 100,000 applications the first year.

 

[danb]

Does anyone remember the bill # for wear and carry permits from last year? We could look up the budget analysis.

 

[DC-W]

Does anyone remember the bill # for wear and carry permits from last year? We could look up the budget analysis.

Here ya go
http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2014RS/fnotes/bil_0009/sb0729.pdf

 

[danb]

Here ya go
http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2014RS/fnotes/bil_0009/sb0729.pdf

thanks. Here is the fiscal note for 729:

http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2014rs/fnotes/bil_0009/sb0729.pdf

10 full time troopers, 18 office clerks, and 44 contractual employees for background checks. and, that is assuming 100k permits the first year.

... about $3.7 million annually, for around 100k permits. This assumes no change to other requirements (e.g. interviews).

 

[Seeker]

thanks. Here is the fiscal note for 729:

http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2014rs/fnotes/bil_0009/sb0729.pdf

10 full time troopers, 18 office clerks, and 44 contractual employees for background checks. and, that is assuming 100k permits the first year.

... about $3.7 million annually, for around 100k permits. This assumes no change to other requirements (e.g. interviews).

Or about $37 per permit application. I think that cost is easily covered by the application fees.

 

[44man]

I'd say that's a result of the demographics and geography of the state.

The sham is the gerrymandering ensures that the central region always wins.

yeah the sham is whatever central md wants WE get out here.

 

[BeoBill]

yeah the sham is whatever central md wants WE get out here.

And some of us in the Central Provinces aren't supremely happy about the edicts either.

 

[mxrider]

thanks. Here is the fiscal note for 729:

http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2014rs/fnotes/bil_0009/sb0729.pdf


... about $3.7 million annually, for around 100k permits. This assumes no change to other requirements (e.g. interviews).

With about $3.8 million gross profit on the first year.

 

[danb]

With about $3.8 million gross profit on the first year.

Set aside a sec that I am skeptical of these cost guesses, Maryland is pretty bad at guessing costs. 100,000 permits, spread over 10 troopers per year, leaves ... what, 12 minutes per interview at most (assuming no overtime)?

But even if this were 100% accurate, the "profit" is really a tax on exercising a right and opens MD up for a challenge. I suspect that if this really came to pass, and the fees were challenged, the state would suddenly "find" they were doing this at a "loss."

 

[44man]

And some of us in the Central Provinces aren't supremely happy about the edicts either.

I dont doubt that for a second but its still the way it is. southern md and western md and the shore would all like to have some say, but alas that doesn't happen very much.

 

[Stoveman]

Set aside a sec that I am skeptical of these cost guesses, Maryland is pretty bad at guessing costs. 100,000 permits, spread over 10 troopers per year, leaves ... what, 12 minutes per interview at most (assuming no overtime)?

I don't think mine took that long, literally in and out....