Somebody Needs To Do The Math

[Blacksmith101]

Somebody needs to do the math on this whole number of applications and how long it is taking. I am no math wiz but my spidey sense is tingling.

Last year they ha just over 70,000 applications all year.

So far this year the have had some 89,000 applications.

According to the press release from MSP.
http://www.mdsp.org/News/PressReleases/tabid/359/ctl/Detail/mid/1088/xmid/21967/xmfid/4/Default.aspx

They, as of 8/1/13, have 73 employees which includes 38 new bodies ( 21 troopers 17 civilians) therefore the previous staffing was 35 so it has more than doubled.

The previous staff of 35 did 70,000 aps. in 12 months or 5833 per month or 166 per person per month.

They go on to say they started in December of 2012 working 21 hours per day 7 days a week. They also state they expended 24,000 hours of overtime from Aug. 2012 to Aug. 2013 or 2,000 hours per month equal to 250 man days per month, if equally distributed. I would assume the additional hours actually are more heavily loaded into 2013 because of the 21/7 starting in December.

250 man days equal an additional 8+ people so 166 apps. times 8 people times 8 months so far is an additional 10,624 apps.

Therefore 35 people at 166 per person per month equals 5,810 apps per month times 8 months which is 46,480 applications plus the at least 10,624 from overtime means they should have processed at least 57,104 instead of the 48,934 they report.

This doesn't take into account the new personnel who were hired prior to 8/1/13 and if I recall some of these were added a month or more ago.

We need a better math person than I to whip these numbers and figure percentages, actual rate vs former rate, etc. And people with good search skills to find additional data from the states own information on hours worked and numbers of people and how many apps were processed in what time frame to contradict the story they are telling.

They say they are working to the max but the numbers show they are dragging their feet.

 

[Dogabutila]

You can't expect that newer people have the same amount of speed at something than does people who have been doing it for awhile. Hell, a month on the job is still pretty much the probationary period. Then, the larger the team the more time spent coordinating.

Plus, the bottleneck may not be man hours per se, but perhaps they only have so many computers or phones to use.

 

[MJD438]

Given the latest feats of tyranny, I am firmly convinced the bottleneck is administrative in nature, not physical access limitations. This last straw was enough to solidify my opinion that the Governor has been behind the bottleneck/work slowdown from day one.

 

[Blacksmith101]

You can't expect that newer people have the same amount of speed at something than does people who have been doing it for awhile. Hell, a month on the job is still pretty much the probationary period. Then, the larger the team the more time spent coordinating.

Plus, the bottleneck may not be man hours per se, but perhaps they only have so many computers or phones to use.

They are 10,000 short not counting the new people.

 

[synuepka]

I would assume the additional hours actually are more heavily loaded into 2013 because of the 21/7 starting in December.

This assumption is likely a major flaw in your math. Note that they chose August 2012 as a starting point for the overtime referenced in the press release, rather than a year to date figure. It also doesn't align with the State's fiscal year starting on July 1. I suspect they burned through most of the overtime in 2012 trying to keep up with the 70,000 applications in 2012 (vs under 50,000 in the two previous years), then cut back on overtime for budgetary and/or political reasons starting in early 2013.

 

[Blacksmith101]

However they started 21 hours a day 7 days a week in December 2012 per their press release.
At 5 days a week 8 hours a day for approx 32 weeks this year is 1280 available work hours.
At 7 days a week 21 hours a day for approx 32 weeks is 4704 available work hours.

The numbers that they provided don't make sense somebody needs to audit this operation. Just what do you think 24,000 hours of overtime cost us taxpayers? Anyone care to guess at the overtime rate for a sworn trooper.

 

[iH8DemLibz]

What gets me is that we, as a group, are some of the most honest people around. Probably hard working and tax paying too.

Gun control is one thing.

Being treated like Common Pond Scum (C.P.S.) is an entirely different matter.

Our saftey, security, and welfare is simply not a priority to these people.

We are Second Class Citizens now and that is SAD!!!

 

[Blacksmith101]

Using numbers from their press release. They had a pool of qualified people to draw from of 35 regular employees and 60 qualified supplemental people. They had available an additional approximate 3424 hours of available time, the difference between 8 hours a day 5 days a week and 21 hours 7 days a week. Assuming the maximum workforce because of computers etc. is the full day time complement of 35 then they had 35 times 3424 available time or 119,840 hours that could have been worked without needing additional equipment. They worked some number less than the total number of overtime hours expended since Aug. 2012.They had more time and more resources available however their productivity went down not up. In the private sector managers would have already been fired over this.

 

[synuepka]

At 5 days a week 8 hours a day for approx 32 weeks this year is 1280 available work hours.
At 7 days a week 21 hours a day for approx 32 weeks is 4704 available work hours.

Available work hours does not equal hours worked, as you have to take into account how many are working during those hours. The 21/7 is just MSP expanding the number of shifts, and redistributing the existing staff across these shifts.

This leads to what Dogabutila was saying:

Plus, the bottleneck may not be man hours per se, but perhaps they only have so many computers or phones to use.

Did they just happen to have twice the office space and equipment (desks, computers, phones) readily available? I doubt it. The move to 21/7 operations suggests they broke the original staff up into shifts, and are filling in open desks on the newly created shifts with the new FT staff and supplemental staff.

They had more time and more resources available however their productivity went down not up. In the private sector managers would have already been fired over this.

The decrease in productivity isn't uncommon when expanding rapidly like this, in government or private sector. You are correct about what would happen to management if this were anything other than a government agency.

 

[fabsroman]

Don't know if this has already been mentioned, but you also have to take into account that the licensing division has probably been involved with other SB281 issues, like setting up the HQL process, drafting COMAR to implement SB281, giving seminars on SB281, etc. So, crunching the numbers isn't quite as simple as taking last year's average per person and applying it to the number of assumed man hours working on processing Forms 77r.

With that said, they should have hired more people in February or March, even if they were only going to be part-time temps.

 

[BigToe]

Given the latest feats of tyranny, I am firmly convinced the bottleneck is administrative in nature, not physical access limitations. This last straw was enough to solidify my opinion that the Governor has been behind the bottleneck/work slowdown from day one.

That wouldn't make sense being that FFLs are legally releasing without ND paperwork. All it would accomplish is releasing firearms without completed background check. If it is intentional, then it has backfired.

 

[smokey]

you'd think they'd at least be returning apps at the same rate as last year. Apps were returned pretty well for the first few months of the year, but around the beginning of summer, apps returned slowed WAAAAAYYYYY down. Instead of getting 30 or so apps like normal, a local ffl was only getting like 8 at a time on the fax sheet. There were many days where ZERO apps were faxed back. I can understand why apps would take longer to come back due to volume, but I cant understand why fewer apps would be returned FROM the state each day. Increased input shouldn't make decreased output.

 

[Not_an_outlaw]

Don't forget that many of these purchasers are people (like myself) that have multiple applications in. Why do they need to process me over and over again? Sometimes multiple forms were in concurrently. No excuse.

 

[Blacksmith101]

you'd think they'd at least be returning apps at the same rate as last year. Apps were returned pretty well for the first few months of the year, but around the beginning of summer, apps returned slowed WAAAAAYYYYY down. Instead of getting 30 or so apps like normal, a local ffl was only getting like 8 at a time on the fax sheet. There were many days where ZERO apps were faxed back. I can understand why apps would take longer to come back due to volume, but I cant understand why fewer apps would be returned FROM the state each day. Increased input shouldn't make decreased output.

Exactly the MSP are publishing how hard they are working on the problem and how many resources they are committing yet the throughput slows. Extra manpower and extra man hours should result in greater throughput.

If they did 48,000 applications in 8 months or 6,000 per month then at that rate in the remaining 4 months they should complete an additional 24,000 aps. or a total of 72,000 for the year. They did 70,000 last year without all this "extra" effort. Working 21/7 with an identified 60 (almost double the workforce) pool of talent resulted in 2,000 additional applications processed in 12 months.

The legislature needs to have an investigation or at least an audit of what is going on. The press releases and the results don't jive.

 

[brokenwing]

I see the rubber on the floor from someone dragging there shoes!

 

[balttigger]

Just stating the number of people tells you nothing. Some people will do nothing but data entry, other sworn officers will do the actual investigations, a few others will send the completed forms out and file the findings away. Each person works at a different pace as each link in the chain takes a different amount of time.

 

[Blacksmith101]

It is sure easy to see who the State trolls are that are on the forum always making excuses for what ever happens.

Read the MSP Press Release "A resource pool of almost 60 sworn and civilian personnel who are able to conduct background investigations were identified ...."

How many of the approx. 35 personnel in the licensing division (prior to new hires) do you think are able to conduct background investigations 30, then 60 doubles the number, if it is 15 then they quadrupled available investigators, maybe it is even more. Why didn't throughput double or quadruple or go up at all?

 

[Ranchero50]

Maybe it will quadruple. I'm pretty sure not everyone is working on the back log of full background checks. I'd lay money someone is doing a NICS style check on the 8th day release papers. How about the guys who are involved with the new processes?

Numbers are only as good as the data they represent.

 

[Blacksmith101]

Maybe it will quadruple.

Numbers are only as good as the data they represent.

It should have already quadrupled they have been working 21/7 since last December.

It is the only numbers we have access to and they are not complete. Members of the legislature need to demand a full accounting. How many people were working, when were they assigned, what was the throughput both before added resources and how much did it increase, etc. The legislature can get the answers and should be watchdogs of both the public treasury and the government sector employees.

 

[Bolts Rock]

That wouldn't make sense being that FFLs are legally releasing without ND paperwork. All it would accomplish is releasing firearms without completed background check. If it is intentional, then it has backfired.

Of course it backfired when the case came up in July in court. Why do you think O'D1ckhead the guv released all our PII to agencies known for poor PII security of their own people and prone to identity theft?