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  • 85MikeTPI

    Active Member
    Jul 19, 2014
    2,286
    Ceciltucky
    PV getting more federal in, as well as CCi strips that I haven’t seen for years

     

    Reloader

    Active Member
    Oct 23, 2007
    1,345
    Arnold, MD
    I'm not understanding why reloading components, mainly primers are stay so expensive while ammo is coming down. I purchased 1K rounds of 9mm for $255 online but the primers alone would run $100.
     

    lazarus

    Active Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    10,884
    I'm not understanding why reloading components, mainly primers are stay so expensive while ammo is coming down. I purchased 1K rounds of 9mm for $255 online but the primers alone would run $100.
    Mostly few manufacturers, and most are owned by one company...

    Winchester and then Vista products. Anything else are imports, which are going to drive the price of those up, and most of the importers have VERY significant cost production issues (energy prices $$$$$$$$$$$) and long timelines.

    Materials prices have been generally coming down, which is partly why ammo prices have been coming down, to a limited degree. Most of the manufacturers have contracts and not paying spot prices on material inputs. So a lot of that takes time to trickle down.

    But I think most of it is limited domestic manufacturing diversity. It's a big part of what happens when monopolies or duopolies are allowed to happen. Sadly, when the free hand of the market is allowed unchecked, it turns out people get squeezed. Anyway, my radicial liberalism out of the way, primer demand is still relatively speaking, sky high.

    The market for ammunition expanded during the pandemic with a lot of new gun owners. But realistically we are talking like 3-5% more households owning firearms. That's a big surge in just a couple of years. But most of them have gotten all of the ammo they want and need. Some have become hoarders, or just volume users. But frankly in the end you are talking maybe a total of 6-10% more people wanting ammo. And existing gun owner demand has softened some from lack of an existential fear over the pandemic, racial worries/riots have subsided some, been awhile since we had a major insurrection against the government, Dems haven't been able to rattle the gun control saber nearly so loudly (especially with Bruen), etc.

    You have some replacement demand as prices come down and more gun owners are interested or willing to buy commercial ammo again at lower prices. Anecdotally I've been seeing more people at the range this summer than I did the two summers before. More brass in the brass buckets too, but I think that is largely a function of me lucking out on when I've gotten there. Plenty of times just about everything has been hoovered up other than a bit of 40 in 9 and a handful of 223 cases as well as some ground/gravel pickups. But a couple scores where it was obviously a couple of days since someone dumped the buckets into their range bag. It mostly ticks me off because a couple of the guys I know are doing it I also KNOW do NOT reload. I've chatted with them. They are not reloaders. They are selling it for scrap or components. Or maybe charitably they have some friends who are reloaders they are giving it to, but I doubt that. And they are the guys who basically grab everything. I do grab a lot too, but I am reloading many calibers, and a couple I do not reload my neighbor does (he is a member at the same range). I don't take anything I or he does not reload. So, if I run across some 243, it stays for someone who does reload it. If I see some fortay, someone else can have it. Etc.

    Anyway, back on topic, demand has softened on ammo, production costs have likely come down some too (some manufacturers have probably stopped overtime shifts, reducing price per cartridge in production). For reloading, I'd bet we saw a lot more than a 3-5% increase in reloaders. You have some new to guns people jumping into reloading and I think you saw a LOT of existing gun owners get into or get back into reloading. Reloading is still SIGNFICANTLY cheaper than commercial ammo across the board. Even with high component prices. Back in 2019, if I was careful and bought in large bulk, I could reload 9mm for around 11 cents a loaded cartridge with range brass/reused brass (possibly 10 cents if I got a screaming deal on bullets and powder. I am not including making your own bullets. Those people have a whole 'nother level of cray going on than us regular reloaders :lol2: ). For steel cased 9mm I could find it for around 12 cents a round. Brass cased for 14-15 cents a round. And those prices were for it shipped to my door in many cases. Yes, there is the joy and pleasure of reloading your own ammo. I love to reload. But even if you have a highly automated production line for your reloads, it still takes time and effort. Unless it is highly automated and you don't have much to do with your spare time, I cannot imagine anyone's time was worth saving probably 1-2 cents a round, even loading a couple of thousand rounds. You are maybe saving $5-10 an hour if you are loading 500-800 rounds an hour (compared to steel). Now, even at inflated prices, it is around 19-21 cents a round to load your own 9mm. The best prices I am seeing are maybe around 32 cents a round. That is a ~12 cent a round delta. If you are loading 500 rounds an hour, that is $60 an hour in savings! Heck, even if you are loading only 200 rounds an hour, you are still saving $20 an hour. That is some real money there. You don't just have to love doing it. Or even really enjoy doing it to probably keep up doing it. Other calibers the math is different, but in the before times, it was very hard to saves more than a couple of pennies to maybe a few pennies a round on the most common calibers like 9, 40, .45, .223/5.56, 20 ga, 12ga. Now, even with inflated component prices (and bullets are not much higher), like for like you can still save a lot of money.

    A long way of saying ammo demand has softened, making production costs lower (even if input prices aren't lower yet if the manufacturers still have contracts on raw materials and haven't seen the massive reductions in copper, tin, and lead yet). Plus more competition in the ammo market from independent manufacturers. Primer demand really hasn't gone down. Or if it has, only a small amount. It is great that I am seeing primers pretty frequently, but other than sellers that are very overpriced, none of the retailers I am looking at tend to have those primers in stock for more than a few hours, or at most 2-3 days. It is a lot better than being in stock for a couple of minutes. So pretty much all manufacturers are selling their primers as fast as they can possibly make them. And importers too.

    I think it'll take the new TX manufacturer of primers coming online (and likely being online for a while, like 6-12 months) to increase diversity of supply in the marketplace, as well as extra supply, as probably some manufacturers seeing some real savings in raw materials before prices go down. I think it is coming, but I still think we won't see much movement on price until the spring at the earliest. But I do think within the next year we will probably see prices soften 10-20% and that trend might continue for a couple of years. Prices are not going back to $30/1k (inflation. Yay!), but I think it is still entirely possible eventually we might see prices dip around $50/1k, but it'll take 3-4 years without any serious supply issues or demand spikes as well as raw materials continuing to go down or stay stable at close to prepandemic prices.
     

    trickg

    Guns 'n Drums
    MDS Supporter
    Jul 22, 2008
    12,722
    Glen Burnie
    I think it'll take the new TX manufacturer of primers coming online (and likely being online for a while, like 6-12 months) to increase diversity of supply in the marketplace, as well as extra supply, as probably some manufacturers seeing some real savings in raw materials before prices go down. I think it is coming, but I still think we won't see much movement on price until the spring at the earliest. But I do think within the next year we will probably see prices soften 10-20% and that trend might continue for a couple of years. Prices are not going back to $30/1k (inflation. Yay!), but I think it is still entirely possible eventually we might see prices dip around $50/1k, but it'll take 3-4 years without any serious supply issues or demand spikes as well as raw materials continuing to go down or stay stable at close to pre-pandemic prices.
    My hope is that they come online and undercut the other manufacturers for a good long bit in order to drum up business for themselves. That will force prices down, but I think you're right - the days of $30/brick (and my Dad probably would have choked even at that) are long gone, never to return. At this point I'd be ok with $50/brick given what current prices are.

    I recently bought 2 bricks of SRP, and cringed when I hit "Submit Order" on the screen. I didn't have a lot of choice though if I wanted to continue to reload for small rifle, and I'm halfway through the first brick.
     

    lazarus

    Active Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    10,884
    My hope is that they come online and undercut the other manufacturers for a good long bit in order to drum up business for themselves. That will force prices down, but I think you're right - the days of $30/brick (and my Dad probably would have choked even at that) are long gone, never to return. At this point I'd be ok with $50/brick given what current prices are.

    I recently bought 2 bricks of SRP, and cringed when I hit "Submit Order" on the screen. I didn't have a lot of choice though if I wanted to continue to reload for small rifle, and I'm halfway through the first brick.
    I want them free, but I'd be doing happy dances if I could get primers around $50/1k in 5k cases, or $60/1k per the box. And sufficient availability that it is easy enough for me to find what I want, almost anytime I want it, and bundle a bunch to save on shipping and hazmat and maybe occasionally start seeing free hazmat deals if I am buying enough $$$ of primers and powder again.
     

    85MikeTPI

    Active Member
    Jul 19, 2014
    2,286
    Ceciltucky
    PV drops MLRP CCI and they get snapped up in minutes

     

    mpollan1

    Foxtrot Juliet Bravo
    Sep 26, 2012
    2,497
    Мэриленд
    Went to Fall Carlisle yesterday. Came across a "booth" selling ammo and primer. CCI 400 box of 1000 was $125. I walked on without dickering or looking any further.
     
    Midway has a "Special Order" available for Win LRPs. Limit 1K. Not sure if that means they have some verified on the way and it's a pre-sale, or what..
    I just placed an order for 1K WLP primers, we'll see what happens. Their site said an expected date or something was supposed to be displayed on the product details (really it was on the checkout page) but what I saw said "Over Due" so I'm fully expecting the order to get cancelled or arrive after I'm dead. I'd rather show support for Midway than pay the scalpers at Gunbroker. I have 1.5K on hand and am not shooting all that much but,... you know,... am panicking. As a handloader, everyone knows having 1.5K is like having 100 left.
     

    lazarus

    Active Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    10,884
    Midway has a "Special Order" available for Win LRPs. Limit 1K. Not sure if that means they have some verified on the way and it's a pre-sale, or what..

    It does say "in stock - Overdue" when adding to my cart and going to check out. Not that I need any, but I was curious what special order meant. So yeah, I assume they are on order and they know they are getting them.
     

    lazarus

    Active Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    10,884
    I just placed an order for 1K WLP primers, we'll see what happens. Their site said an expected date or something was supposed to be displayed on the product details (really it was on the checkout page) but what I saw said "Over Due" so I'm fully expecting the order to get cancelled or arrive after I'm dead. I'd rather show support for Midway than pay the scalpers at Gunbroker. I have 1.5K on hand and am not shooting all that much but,... you know,... am panicking. As a handloader, everyone knows having 1.5K is like having 100 left.
    You only have 1500 left? You poor sap. If I had 100 left I'd be knocking on strangers doors asking if I could buy any from them and wearing a sign everywhere I went saying "Handloader - Can't find primers. Any you can donate would be appreciated, God is watching you." on my back the sign would say "Willing to suck D for a sleeve"

    Then again, I find myself in the situation where I have bought a gun I did not intend to buy and I don't have the primers I'd like. No large rifle magnum primers and I just about a 44 Mag. Fortunately I have some appropriate powders to load that take regular large pistol primers and plenty of LPP (I load 45acp after all). So I don't NEED any LPM. yet. I do have H110 that would love to make its acquaintance with some 44 magnum cases soon.

    But here I am, not having ANY LPMs because I didn't figure I'd ever own anything chambered in a cartridge that would use/need LPMs. I had no plans to own a 44 mag. But I stumbled across a DW 44 mag at a great price and I couldn't say no. So here I am.

    I should probably get a box of LRPMs at some point just in case THAT crap happens too.
     
    But here I am, not having ANY LPMs because I didn't figure I'd ever own anything chambered in a cartridge that would use/need LPMs.
    I'm kinda in the same boat. Who knew I'd get a bug in my bonnet to buy a SAA nockoff? Had a plastic one when I was still in short pants but never really thought about buying a real one. But when you binge watch Wynonna Earp and the wife expresses an interest in shooting a SAA, and you have a love for revolvers, it gave me an excuse to go buy a New Vaquero in .45 Colt (of course.) I have plenty of 45 ACP cases I bought pre primed, but need the WLPs for .45 Colt.
     

    lazarus

    Active Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    10,884
    I'm kinda in the same boat. Who knew I'd get a bug in my bonnet to buy a SAA nockoff? Had a plastic one when I was still in short pants but never really thought about buying a real one. But when you binge watch Wynonna Earp and the wife expresses an interest in shooting a SAA, and you have a love for revolvers, it gave me an excuse to go buy a New Vaquero in .45 Colt (of course.) I have plenty of 45 ACP cases I bought pre primed, but need the WLPs for .45 Colt.
    Well crap, if my wife expressed an interest in guns I'd buy ANYTHING.

    Heck, we were watching Firefly once and she mentioned Zoey's mare's leg lever gun was pretty cool. I had six websites up on my phone with one in the cart in 5 minutes showing her. "Cool your jets! I don't WANT a gun. Ick. But if I DID get a gun, it would be onna those"

    FFS. Okay, fine.
     
    I just wandered across this site: The International Ammunition Association it appears the shortage extends beyond our shores. France, Germany and Belgium are mentioned as having the same issue so holding out for imports from European companies seems fruitless.
    Supposedly there is another factory in the works in Columbia SC, but no word on whether they will have extra primers for sale. AAC Primer facility construction
     
    Well crap, if my wife expressed an interest in guns I'd buy ANYTHING.
    After getting burglarized, wife #1 got interested in home defense and after the first few purchases, shooting as a sport. The collection grew and procurement of reloading equipment ensued. Wife #2 couldn't believe she married a guy with a NRA sticker in the back of his pickup.

    Living near DC and the Metro, over the past few years #2 has become more concern about civil unrest and expressed an interest in getting comfortable with a firearm. Several YouTube videos, hours of personal instruction from you's truly, a full size FN509 with 2 x 24 rnd magazines and several hours at the MSAR range, purdy much has her ready to rock and roll.

    She made a few comments during Wynonna regarding women shooting those big guns and I started my investigation. As a revolver fan and engineer, I settled on the New Vaquero. She has yet to shoot it, the grip isn't as substantial as that on the FN so she is worried about hanging onto it. I'm not pushing it as I want her muscle memory to be keyed on the FN.
     

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