Preparing For Spreading Coronavirus

[fidelity]

Based on what? Didn't fidelity post some scientific evidence saying that the chances of this being man made were quite small?

That's what I thought also, something about markers that should be present if it's man made or been tinkered with but they're not.

That's what I posted in the mega thread. There are changes in the virus that we wouldn't have envisioned or designed based on our understanding of biology, but evolution has pointed out to us. So unlikely that this virus was stitched together. Most likely an isolate, like the 99% identical one in pangolins, jumped into another species that has a humanlike ACE2 receptor and got better (through selection and mutation) in using it. Could have been in humans too and in one person, after a bit of replication, a fortuitous for the virus unfortuitous for us change occurred.

While not genetically engineered, there is also a chance that researchers took a pangolin like isolate, passed this CoV on human cells for an extended time, and "evolved" it in culture. Can't rule out this possibility based on what we currently know.

 

[Boxcab]

Whats on the list? I got a little lax this year in prepping for the unknown .

See below...

If you are going to be quarantined for 30-45 days there are a lot of things around the home you'll need besides food. Toiletries, dish detergent, TP, paper towels, laundry detergent and dryer sheets, medications, ziploc bags, aluminum foil, cleaning supplies, garbage bags, pet food and supplies, etc.

And if you do get the virus, things to control the fever, pain, etc. Soups/broth. Just think about your daily useages and plan on a 45 day supply.



.

 

[gungate]

That's what I posted in the mega thread. There are changes in the virus that we wouldn't have envisioned or designed based on our understanding of biology, but evolution has pointed out to us. So unlikely that this virus was stitched together. Most likely an isolate, like the 99% identical one in pangolins, jumped into another species that has a humanlike ACE2 receptor and got better (through selection and mutation) in using it. Could have been in humans too and in one person, after a bit of replication, a fortuitous for the virus unfortuitous for us change occurred.

While not genetically engineered, there is also a chance that researchers took a pangolin like isolate, passed this CoV on human cells for an extended time, and "evolved" it in culture. Can't rule out this possibility based on what we currently know.

I read that the virus is not identical to known versions of that virus. It has been altered most likely. It doesn't need to be a brand new virus to be bio-engineered to use as a weapon.

 

[fidelity]

I read that the virus is not identical to known versions of that virus. It has been altered most likely. It doesn't need to be a brand new virus to be bio-engineered to use as a weapon.

You don't understand the meaning of the word bioengineering or you don't understand why the data indicates why it isn't bioengineered. As I said, it is possible that it is adapted for human cells in a lab. This isn't bioengineering which typically refers to making directed changes in genetic sequences.

 

[Squaregrouper]

For the record folks, Fidelity is an expert on this stuff. I stated it a few weeks ago in the other thread and feel the need to repeat myself.
I'm not saying he is infallible, but his posts are the ones we should all be paying attention to.

 

[CrazySanMan]

For the record folks, Fidelity is an expert on this stuff. I stated it a few weeks ago in the other thread and feel the need to repeat myself.
I'm not saying he is infallible, but his posts are the ones we should all be paying attention to.

This

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

This

Stop. It will go to K’s head.

 

[CrazySanMan]

Coronavirus Precautions: Hundreds In New York Asked To Isolate Themselves, Including 112 On Long Island, 8 In Westchester
https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-update-de-blasio-cuomo-outline-preparations-in-new-york/

New York is bracing for a coronavirus outbreak.

CBS2 has learned hundreds of people are being monitored for possible coronavirus exposure in New York state.

The Health Department says 700 people in the state have been asked to voluntarily self-isolate for two weeks.

That includes 83 people in Nassau County, 29 in Suffolk County and eight in Westchester.

It’s important to point out there are no confirmed cases here, and no one in New York City or in New Jersey is being monitored.

This is what you need to be prepared for. 2-4 weeks, maybe even longer, stuck inside your house under self-isolation or official quarantine.

 

[LCPIWB]

I thought the thread title was looking for suggestions as to how we can be prepared to spread it.

 

[MindTheGAP]

Bottom line: <3% mortality rate. (even factoring in China's abysmal hygiene in most 'rural' areas)
Biggest concern: vaccine (in dev now) will likely be unaffordable to poorer, less hygienic communities in the US.

TL;DR: most (if not everyone) on this forum is not at risk of death via Corona Virus, whether it comes to Maryland with infection counts in droves or not.

If you want to prep, my advice is make sure you're in good health before it hits and buy lots of fever reducers / bottled water. Maybe the 'winter special / french toast combo' of eggs, bread, milk, and toilet paper.

 

[CrazySanMan]

Here's the Hopkins link that shows up-to-date infection info:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

My question to the medical professionals on MDS:
Right now the link above shows 82,550 total confirmed cases, 2810 deaths, and 33,252 recovered. How do you properly compute the fatality rate? If you take the total confirmed cases, the deaths are 3.4% of them, but some of those confirmed cases are going to end up as deaths in a few days to weeks. It would make more sense to me to use the total recovered cases, which gives an 8.4% fatality rate. Which is correct?

 

[fidelity]

For the record folks, Fidelity is an expert on this stuff. I stated it a few weeks ago in the other thread and feel the need to repeat myself.
I'm not saying he is infallible, but his posts are the ones we should all be paying attention to.

This

Appreciate the comments. (You too, Nnztg8r, even if you’re referring to SG above)

Gungate, sorry if I was discourteous in my response.

I’m not a physician. I look for posts from teratos, dbledoc, and others (the “missed it by this much” guy - spacing on the MDS alias) on this forum for medical insights. I am scientist with a bit of virology, immunology, and pathogenesis knowledge.

Scientists will do dangerous things in controlled settings after regulatory review. A few years back, scientists were trying to adapt certain flu strains to be airborne, and this was halted because inadequate safeguards were in place. It might be underway again ...

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/201...iments-make-bird-flu-more-risky-poised-resume

Chinese scientists have also skirted genetic safeguards with human experimentation in recent years, with a physician-scientist genetically modifying offspring with CRISPR/Cas9 tools such that they would lack the CCR5 gene, which can be used by HIV in infection.

It is not out of the realm of possibility that Chinese scientists were culturing a pangolin like SARS coronavirus on human cells to get it to adapt. The rationale would be to know what changes occur to make the virus more dangerous such that screenings and interventions could be developed (bioweapons suck as tools as they inevitably put your side at risk as the cures and therapies are not easy). This sort of experiment might take 6 months to a couple of years. It is possible that this virus would have jumped into the community if there were inadequate safeguards. At this point, I don't think this is the case (as the pangolin isolate is very recently found), but can't rule it out.

 

[fidelity]

I thought the thread title was looking for suggestions as to how we can be prepared to spread it.

I’m avoiding attending large conferences and minimizing travel until mid April, just to see where things are heading.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

I was indeed digging the big fella...not that he’s vulnerable.

I’m not alone in being grateful for your knowledge, experience and insights. They are pure gold.

Our resident Docs are too good to us and invaluable members of our community.

Without y’all, we’d be up two shits creeks...simultaneously.

Like water in the desert, truth here is the only thing that helps folks survive.

This threat is genuine. Knowing what to expect and how best we might accommodate it is a relief.

Thanks again sir.

 

[Mightydog]

Coronavirus Precautions: Hundreds In New York Asked To Isolate Themselves, Including 112 On Long Island, 8 In Westchester
https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/02/26/coronavirus-update-de-blasio-cuomo-outline-preparations-in-new-york/


This is what you need to be prepared for. 2-4 weeks, maybe even longer, stuck inside your house under self-isolation or official quarantine.

Voluntary isolation for a New Yorker means only going to the neighborhood bar once a day. Over 50% of the people don’t cook themselves and depend on takeout of the neighborhood store. That ain’t gonna change if “voluntary”.

 

[ironpony]

At noon today Edgewater Giant and Safeway were out of hand sanitizer.

 

[RoadDawg]

At noon today Edgewater Giant and Safeway were out of hand sanitizer.

Hand sanitizer is one of the very reasons that this virus will spread more easily in this country.

All of these kids who have been raised up bathed in Purrell... and therefore have no or highly reduced immune systems to deal with any new virus.

Those who grew up playing outside all day in who knows what dirt... eating hotdogs, corndogs, penny candy, popsicles, and drinking sodas from bottles and cans... without washing hands when we were kids will likely fair better in the end.

 

[teratos]

Bottom line: <3% mortality rate. (even factoring in China's abysmal hygiene in most 'rural' areas)
Biggest concern: vaccine (in dev now) will likely be unaffordable to poorer, less hygienic communities in the US.

TL;DR: most (if not everyone) on this forum is not at risk of death via Corona Virus, whether it comes to Maryland with infection counts in droves or not.

If you want to prep, my advice is make sure you're in good health before it hits and buy lots of fever reducers / bottled water. Maybe the 'winter special / french toast combo' of eggs, bread, milk, and toilet paper.

First, even the poorest Americans today have access to vaccinations for free. It’s absurd to believe the vaccine will be distributed according to class. You sound like a Bernie supporter here. Stop.

Second, mortality rates tell part of the story. A military analogy will suffice here. If you want to slow down a unit, is it better to kill soldiers or wound them? This thing is contagious as hell. You can get it more than once. It’s actually worse the second time you get it. It’s going to whip through households, businesses, schools. It’s going to shut things down.

Young, healthy people do die from this virus. We are all at risk.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

First, even the poorest Americans today have access to vaccinations for free. It’s absurd to believe the vaccine will be distributed according to class. You sound like a Bernie supporter here. Stop.

Second, mortality rates tell part of the story. A military analogy will suffice here. If you want to slow down a unit, is it better to kill soldiers or wound them? This thing is contagious as hell. You can get it more than once. It’s actually worse the second time you get it. It’s going to whip through households, businesses, schools. It’s going to shut things down.

Young, healthy people do die from this virus. We are all at risk.

So, Doc, I should stop wasting my money on those anti-aging pills???

 

[teratos]

So, Doc, I should stop wasting my money on those anti-aging pills???

Don’t buy green bananas for the time being.