McDonald Decision Date Bounty

[Patrick]

Pick the day McDonald is announced.

Winner gets a box of ammo and a LaRue Tactical hat from me. Ammo choices vary widely, but nothing like .50 BMG or .338 Lapua is in my small arsenal. Odds are I have something you'll use.

Winner is chosen with using the following "narrowing" criteria in order from the top:

Tie Breakers, in order:

- By "Scrutiny" advice from the Court (Strict, Intermediate, loosey-goosey or "they didn't say"). Note I am assuming a win for our side here.
- Vote count
- And if the above fails or we somehow have more than one matching the above...whoever posted the "most right" guesses on the forum first.

And if the Court goes all out and say "bearing" requires carry anytime in 2010...Krucam gets dinner on me -- but this is an existing bet anyway.

 

[Ab_Normal]

June 12 semi-strict scrutiny 5-4 favor McD.

By semi, I mean they will ellude to it but will not come right out and require it.

 

[Patrick]

My guesses:

May 26; 5-4 in favor of McDonald; Punt on Scrutiny; no definite carry decisions

If I win, the next best guess wins the pool.

 

[ImperatorZices]

June 8th, semi-strict, 5-4

 

[krucam]

CRAP!! You took my bait, didn't you?

June 21st. Conference Day on the 24th...we'll be well in the "discussions" for Stevens replacement, the remaining want to put a wrap on it, but not in May...

Scrutiny: Strict. Too many varying opinions on a Fundamental right across State lines. Strict is the mantra for the 1st, it will be for the 2nd.

Vote: 7-2. One or two of the Heller dissenters jump on board...Sotomayor might surprise us.

Keep and Bear becomes Mantra. I've no doubt on this one. It's an Incorporation case and they won't break up a sub-sub-sub clause that finely. Operative Clause (Heller Defined) carries to the States.

I imagine my eternal optimist predictions surprise nobody...Outside of the date & Vote, I'll come up with some Karma of my own if wrong.

2010 will be a great year.

 

[Inigoes]

June 28, 6-3, "they didn't say"

 

[boricuamaximus]

June 5 6-3 moderate. Enough grounds to repeal 1986 law

 

[Patrick]

CRAP!! You took my bait, didn't you?

Wednesday, June 23rd. Conference Day on the 24th...we'll be well in the "discussions" for Stevens replacement, the remaining want to put a wrap on it, but not in May...

Scrutiny: Strict. Too many varying opinions on a Fundamental right across State lines. Strict is the mantra for the 1st, it will be for the 2nd.

Vote: 7-2. One or two of the Heller dissenters jump on board...Sotomayor might surprise us.

Keep and Bear becomes Mantra. I've no doubt on this one. It's an Incorporation case and they won't break up a sub-sub-sub clause that finely. Operative Clause (Heller Defined) carries to the States.

Bait taken. You all kept saying "67 days", but the Court typically releases in roughly the order they hear them. And they are still hearing cases while others have been announced.

I hope you are right about all of this.

 

[Inigoes]

Something on this magnitude, I look for the court to follow Heller, and let the decision out on the last day of the session.

 

[ezliving]

• June 28.
• 6-3 vote for incorporation by due process clause.
• Strict Scrutiny for "keep", Intermediate Scruitiny for "bear".
• 2 written decisions (incorporation by due process clause with strict scrutiny for "keep" and intermediate scrutiny for restrictions for "bear"; one dissenting opinion.)
• For incorporation: Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, Alito, Kennedy, Sotomayor.
• Dissent: Stevens, Ginsburg, Breyer.

 

[john_bud]

Something on this magnitude, I look for the court to follow Heller, and let the decision out on the last day of the session.

Hey, that's what I was going to say. Last day of the session so they can vamoose out of town.

Will be strict with 5-4

 

[Inigoes]

Hey, that's what I was going to say. Last day of the session so they can vamoose out of town.

Will be strict with 5-4

That's June 28th

 

[ezliving]

Seems to me that there should be a MD Delegate and Senator prepared to jointly write a very detailed letter to MD AG Gansler with questions on the status of specific MD gun laws and requlations, post-McDonald.

 

[Brychan]

June 21 - strict "Shall Not Be Infringed" (ok, I can hope can't I) 6-3

 

[hodgepodge]

June 18

Intermediate, allowing some restrictions
6-3

 

[krucam]

Seems to me that there should be a MD Delegate and Senator prepared to jointly write a very detailed letter to MD AG Gansler with questions on the status of specific MD gun laws and requlations, post-McDonald.

Absolutely Agree! We should be actively pursuing/planning for life post-McDonald with our representatives...with a subtle reminder of the November elections thrown in...

 

[Patrick]

Absolutely Agree! We should be actively pursuing/planning for life post-McDonald with our representatives...with a subtle reminder of the November elections thrown in...

Ha! Reminding an MD lawmaker of upcoming elections will not bode well for a pro-2A position. Remember that the counties that decide the election are all heavily against 2A.

We can win SOMD, the Eastern Shore and everything north and west of Howard and still come up short against the B-W corridor.

But laws be laws, and I think we definitely need to craft a set of questions when McDonald is handed down.

 

[pcfixer]

Absolutely Agree! We should be actively pursuing/planning for life post-McDonald with our representatives...with a subtle reminder of the November elections thrown in...

Absolutely agree!! Where is the MSI executive members?
I think MSI should as an organization write a letter and send to all
the Senators and Delegates.

 

[Patrick]

You can count on the NRA being silent.

Except when they claim credit for McDonald and ask MD gun owners for our money to celebrate.

 

[Trapper]

June 28th, 7-2, full-incorporation using "P or I", putting that ammendment back where it should be.