9 vs 45 and confirmation bias

Turbohugh · Jan 1, 2017

.45 Us GI 9mm Germans ..

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Texas · Jan 1, 2017

I took a gunsmithing course not to long ago and had to review an article about a .45 ACP vs. 9mm ballistics test the FBI did a few years ago. Give me a day or so and I will find the article and link it here for you. As I recall, and it is fuzzy, it was leaning towards the 9mm. For me it is more about what I feel comfortable with. I carried a 9mm when I was in the Army and it did fine. I prefer a .45 now. If you can't put lead on target the caliber does not matter at all. I think a solid foundation in marksmanship fundamentals is more important than splitting hairs between the two.

Mr Bear · Jan 2, 2017

It always boils down to what gun you can shoot comfortably & accurately. Have you spent all your practice time shooting holes in static paper targets or have you shot at multiple targets, practiced shooting with movement, from cover or behind barricades, etc? The answer is overwhelmingly no. So this tells me that in a stressful situation you won't be able to hit s..t.

Remember the real world stats...1)at best you're only 50% as accurate under stress as in practice, 2)per the NYPD & DOJ, in shootings at a distance of 6 ft, the hit rate is just under 60% & at distances of 21 ft the hit rate drops to about 78%. Those facts are for law enforcement. The public will probably do much worse. So if you can't hit what you're aiming for, caliber doesn't matter as much.

I will say this, given how Hollywood has us believing a single pistol round will stop a perp, just the opposite is true. Pistol rounds are very inefficient so multiple hits on a target are often required to stop the threat. Double or triple taps may be necessary, so can most ccw holders do this in an accurate, timely manner....absolutely not. From what I see at several ranges, they can barely competently hit the paper targets.

Let's also not forget, ballistic gel doesn't take bone &/or muscle density into account. I regularly practice with multiple calipers & with different guns so it doesn't matter what gun I pick up. I'm comfortable & competent with all of them. I'm not as concerned about penetration as I am about shot placement & capacity. As I tell my students, when your life is on the line, you can never have too many bullets.

Magnumite · Jan 2, 2017

Remember the real world stats...1)at best you're only 50% as accurate under stress as in practice, 2)per the NYPD & DOJ, in shootings at a distance of 6 ft, the hit rate is just under 60% & at distances of 21 ft the hit rate drops to about 78%. Those facts are for law enforcement. The public will probably do much worse. So if you can't hit what you're aiming for, caliber doesn't matter as much.

Good point. Do you have your stats reversed or are those numbers % misses? I have read shooting stats before and the numbers from some sources are actually lower hit percentages. Not arguing your point which is well made, agreeing with your statement. Clint Smith says something to the effect we have practice to be good so we can perform mediocre (hit percentages).

tdt91 · Jan 2, 2017

We all know that either caliber will do the job so either caliber is good to have. The one thing that 9 has over the other/s is the cost of ammo. With 9 most of us can afford to shoot it more thus getting more practice which matters. (9 lives Matters)

bob finger · Jan 2, 2017

If you shoot bowling pins it is amazing how much of a handicap you will have in clearing the table with the 9 vs the 45. Bring em on. bob

Mark75H · Jan 2, 2017

tdt91 said:
We all know that either caliber will do the job so either caliber is good to have. The one thing that 9 has over the other/s is the cost of ammo. With 9 most of us can afford to shoot it more thus getting more practice which matters. (9 lives Matters)

And mag capacity

Magnumite · Jan 2, 2017

point on pins taken
9 (minor caliber) pins are set two feet from the back of the table.
45 (major caliber) pins are set 42 inches from yhe back of the table.
This assumes 48"x96" tables.

BMassBMore · Jan 3, 2017

Hey all - I appreciate all of the great feedback and commentary. I do think that some of you sort of missed the point, which I understand as this is a shooting forum and the 9 vs 45 debate still rages and in many cases can be very personal. The main point I was trying to make was really about questioning your beliefs, acknowledging your biases and how they may blind you to learning, and being open minded and fair. I just used the 9 vs 45 debate as one well understood topic for context and illustration.

Regarding 9 v 45 though, I really need to hit the range some more. What has stuck with me so far is this:

1. Cost - 9mm costs me $0.20/round, 45 is $0.30. Advantage 9mm, but not so significant to me.

2. Capacity - for me, talking strictly HD, not CCW, this is 20+1 rds vs 12+1 rds, with reloads easily available for either. In 99% of the scenarios I can imagine, there's no real difference here. Advantage 9mm, but relatively inconsequential. If I ever get a CCW, I'd probably want the extra rounds of 9mm in a compact platform. Something like 15+1 vs 8+1 would be a real difference maker for me.

3. Terminal effect - IMHO, really too close to call. Between the rounds I would use (230gr HST vs 147gr HST) I'd be perfectly confident with either. 45 is bigger, expands well, penetrates well. 9mm is smaller, but expands fantastically, and penetrates well.

And so it really comes down to 4. which do I shoot better? Initial results, to my great suprise, favor the 45. Perhaps I need to play around with different platforms more and it isn't only about caliber. But so far, between a Beretta PX4 in 9mm, a Sig P229 in 9mm, and an HK USP in 45, shooting the 45 simply felt better and I was more accurate. The recoil impulse from the 45 was more satisfying. The 45 felt more powerful, but less snappy. I've never felt that accuracy was a problem, but there was a noticeable improvement in accuracy with the 45. I'm talking like 3" group vs 2" group at 10 yards shooting slowly, and 5" vs 3" when shooting rapidly. 5" is probably good enough, but 3" is certainly better.

More shooting will be necessary!

BenL · Jan 3, 2017

HordesOfKailas said:
May I interject and offer up the...10mm?

Curious... I've been considering one, lately. I usually carry a Kahr Arms 45 or an LCP; last week, I handled a G29SF and liked it. Just not sure if the recoil would make it a difficult SD gun.

RoadDawg · Jan 3, 2017

BMassBMore said:
Hey all - I appreciate all of the great feedback and commentary. I do think that some of you sort of missed the point, which I understand as this is a shooting forum and the 9 vs 45 debate still rages and in many cases can be very personal. The main point I was trying to make was really about questioning your beliefs, acknowledging your biases and how they may blind you to learning, and being open minded and fair. I just used the 9 vs 45 debate as one well understood topic for context and illustration.

Regarding 9 v 45 though, I really need to hit the range some more. What has stuck with me so far is this:

1. Cost - 9mm costs me $0.20/round, 45 is $0.30. Advantage 9mm, but not so significant to me.

2. Capacity - for me, talking strictly HD, not CCW, this is 20+1 rds vs 12+1 rds, with reloads easily available for either. In 99% of the scenarios I can imagine, there's no real difference here. Advantage 9mm, but relatively inconsequential. If I ever get a CCW, I'd probably want the extra rounds of 9mm in a compact platform. Something like 15+1 vs 8+1 would be a real difference maker for me.

3. Terminal effect - IMHO, really too close to call. Between the rounds I would use (230gr HST vs 147gr HST) I'd be perfectly confident with either. 45 is bigger, expands well, penetrates well. 9mm is smaller, but expands fantastically, and penetrates well.

And so it really comes down to 4. which do I shoot better? Initial results, to my great suprise, favor the 45. Perhaps I need to play around with different platforms more and it isn't only about caliber. But so far, between a Beretta PX4 in 9mm, a Sig P229 in 9mm, and an HK USP in 45, shooting the 45 simply felt better and I was more accurate. The recoil impulse from the 45 was more satisfying. The 45 felt more powerful, but less snappy. I've never felt that accuracy was a problem, but there was a noticeable improvement in accuracy with the 45. I'm talking like 3" group vs 2" group at 10 yards shooting slowly, and 5" vs 3" when shooting rapidly. 5" is probably good enough, but 3" is certainly better.

More shooting will be necessary!

So what you've discovered about yourself is that your brain thinks the 9mm is better because it is counting how many boolits you've got in your pistol.

But your body works better with the .45.

Therefore you have a logic Vs. practice fight going on between your heart and your head.

If you're using the same type of boolits... your going to need to shoot about two 9mms for every one .45.
9mm Vs. 11.5mm...
115 grain Vs. 230 grain...

7-8 rounds Vs. 15-17... A basic wash... Carry what you can hit with the best.

Some folks would say... "Hitting twice for basically the same effect as hitting once is just silly." But then we're back into the other side of the debate again... :shrug:

jimbobborg · Jan 3, 2017

As I posted earlier this year, I'm dropping the 9mm for carry. Now it's a .38 Special +P in a snubby Colt. Or if I can get away with it, a .357 or 10mm. Six to nine rounds in the gun, two speed loaders or mags in my pockets. Capacity is nice, but I use my handgun to get to my long gun, an AR I keep in my truck. I avoid malls if at all possible, and the ones I do go to, I know where the exits are and how to get out as fast as possible. I have no problems hitting COM with revolvers in double action. Now that reloading supplies are back in stock, I can practice more.

Biggfoot44 · Jan 3, 2017

When theoretical hypothetical advantages conflict with real results fired with your hands, there is no conflict. Use what works "meaningfully better" for you.

BenL · Jan 3, 2017

jimbobborg said:
As I posted earlier this year, I'm dropping the 9mm for carry. Now it's a .38 Special +P in a snubby Colt. Or if I can get away with it, a .357 or 10mm. Six to nine rounds in the gun, two speed loaders or mags in my pockets. Capacity is nice, but I use my handgun to get to my long gun, an AR I keep in my truck. I avoid malls if at all possible, and the ones I do go to, I know where the exits are and how to get out as fast as possible. I have no problems hitting COM with revolvers in double action. Now that reloading supplies are back in stock, I can practice more.

What 10mm are you CCW? Are you as quick with it as, say, a 45?

jimbobborg · Jan 3, 2017

BenL said:
What 10mm are you CCW? Are you as quick with it as, say, a 45?

I used to carry a Kimber STII in 10mm. And yes, I'm as quick with it as a 45 1911. I don't carry nuclear loads unless I'm in bear country. Winchester Silvertips for social work here. If I could get 135gr bullets at 1400 fps using factory rounds, that would be my choice, as it's a heavier, wider version of the 125gr JHP .357 Magnum round.

Forgot to add, I'm picking up a 10mm 1911 this year, come hell or high water. I still have six magazines and three ammo cans full of 10mm ammunition.

Pinecone · Jan 3, 2017

Mark75H said:
But it doesn't put any more .45 rounds in your mag.

You don't NEED more with .45.

Jeff Cooper did some analysis in the 90s and found that the ability to carry more rounds seemed to just make for more misses.

Pinecone · Jan 3, 2017

Mr Bear said:
Those facts are for law enforcement. The public will probably do much worse. So if you can't hit what you're aiming for, caliber doesn't matter as much.

Maybe the public as a whole, but taking a group like MDS members, they likely shoot more rounds per year than LEO. Plus they are doing it because they WANT TO, not because they HAVE TO.

The last is mostly true. I always liked Jeff Cooper telling an agent of a 3 letter agency he consulted with, "If it will make you feel better to carry a .25 Auto, go so. But do not load it. If you load it, you might be tempted to shoot it. And if you shoot it, you might just hit someone. And if you hit someone, you will make them VERY angry at you."

So there are some deminimus levels for acceptable caliber.

Biggfoot44 · Jan 3, 2017

Since you asked :

To match the sectional density of a 125gr .357 , would require a .400 bullet of 155gr . But maybe you meant 135gr on purpose. Look no farther than Cor Bon

135Gr @ 1450fps
150Gr @ 1325fps

One was measured with 5in, the other 4.6in . Users of G29 would have to reduce actual velocities , but still substantially above any fowtay.

Pinecone · Jan 3, 2017

bob finger said:
If you shoot bowling pins it is amazing how much of a handicap you will have in clearing the table with the 9 vs the 45. Bring em on. bob

I decided I was not a 9mm fan when I got to shoot some Pepper Poppers with an MP5 full auto.

3 round burst to the circle did not put them down with half the authority of 1 round of .45.

BenL · Jan 3, 2017

jimbobborg said:
I used to carry a Kimber STII in 10mm. And yes, I'm as quick with it as a 45 1911. I don't carry nuclear loads unless I'm in bear country. Winchester Silvertips for social work here. If I could get 135gr bullets at 1400 fps using factory rounds, that would be my choice, as it's a heavier, wider version of the 125gr JHP .357 Magnum round.

Forgot to add, I'm picking up a 10mm 1911 this year, come hell or high water. I still have six magazines and three ammo cans full of 10mm ammunition.

Why did you ditch the STII?

9 vs 45 and confirmation bias

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