Wrenn PI Granted (DC Shall Issue)

swinokur · Oct 1, 2017

IIRC a 4-4 SCOTUS split means the DC Circuit ruling stands. The bad part is it does not resolve the circuit splits elsewhere, and specifically in the 4CA, where Woollard was decided. So a 4-4 vote at SCTOTUS would do nothing to resolve G&S in MD, only DC.

I am sure Esq. will weigh in and straighten me out if I'm wrong.

press1280 · Oct 1, 2017

swinokur said:
DC also bans carry on public streets near the WH. T,P. and M restrictions will be upheld by most courts.

I agree that's getting ahead of ourselves. Let's get carry first, then focus on T ,P and M restrictions.

This case could help answer https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/16-424.html that although the question before Scotus is simply whether Class' guilty plea waived a constitutional challenge. So in other words, if he wins, he returns to the lower courts and can challenge a ban on possession/carrying on government owned parking lots on 2A grounds. AND, a win there would split with the CA10 Bonidy case. But that'll take a while.

press1280 · Oct 1, 2017

swinokur said:
IIRC a 4-4 SCOTUS split means the DC Circuit ruling stands. The bad part is it does not resolve the circuit splits elsewhere, and specifically in the 4CA, where Woollard was decided. So a 4-4 vote at SCTOTUS would do nothing to resolve G&S in MD, only DC.

I am sure Esq. will weigh in and straighten me out if I'm wrong.

I agree with this, and think it was pointed out that the court may be opt to pass altogether on a deadlock or re-schedule arguments for when the court's 9th member is seated.

press1280 · Oct 1, 2017

esqappellate said:
I don’t give legal advice on the fora, but I won’t take the training or make the application until I have a better idea of the time line and that is just dependent on what DC does. For example, if everyone takes the allowed time and especially if anyone seeks an extension, this case, if cert is granted, won’t be argued until next term, with a decision not likely until sometime in 2019, maybe as late as June 2019. Similarly, if DC obtains a stay of mandate pending a cert petition under Rule 41, then there is no point in applying as the original stay issued by the DC Circuit stays in place and MDPD continues to apply the “good reason” requirement to deny applications.

If DC doesn't get a stay from the Circuit or SCOTUS, do they push the envelope and actually apply for cert before the 90 days, in order to get on the calendar for this term?

swinokur · Oct 1, 2017

If they don’t they better be issuing permits or face a contempt charge

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

jbrown50 · Oct 1, 2017

esqappellate said:
I don’t give legal advice on the fora, but I won’t take the training or make the application until I have a better idea of the time line and that is just dependent on what DC does. For example, if everyone takes the allowed time and especially if anyone seeks an extension, this case, if cert is granted, won’t be argued until next term, with a decision not likely until sometime in 2019, maybe as late as June 2019. Similarly, if DC obtains a stay of mandate pending a cert petition under Rule 41, then there is no point in applying as the original stay issued by the DC Circuit stays in place and MDPD continues to apply the “good reason” requirement to deny applications.

Good advice and thanks Esqappellate.

The only way I would reapply during this period of uncertainty is if DC waived the fees again for those who applied and were denied. I’ll have an application in the system without the risk of wasting more money. I wouldn’t take the training until I’m approved.

danb · Oct 1, 2017

CurlyDave said:
If Kennedy or Ginsburg retires, it doesn't matter if the Dems pick up Senate seats. The absolute worst we could do in that scenario is a 4-4 tie and that leaves the existing ruling unchanged. We win. I don't know if that sets a nationwide precedent, we need a legal eagle.

Even if we lose Senate seats, Trump will not nominate an anti-2A Justice. The seat will remain empty.

The only potential issue I see is Thomas, and I suspect that black life expectancy has as much to do with socio-economic status as genetics. He is in the first quintile in socio-economic status and I have great hope that he will be with us for many years to come.

No, the worst we could do if the Dems pick up seats is a 5-4 loss. Dems refuse to confirm a pro-2A candidate, Trumps makes a deal.

I think we just have to trust the process when it gets to conference. The 4 voting for cert are likely to know how the other 5 will vote. They will have inside information about the others' views, which we don't have. They will not vote for cert to create a bad precedent.

Also, keep in mind, only Thomas and Gorsuch dissented from the denial of cert for Peruta. For all we know, there are some on the court who only think open carry is the true fundamental 2A right outside the home. A plurality opinion is no help (3 for concealed carry, 2 for open carry, 4 for no right outside the home). There are lots of reasons a new justice may not help.

swinokur · Oct 1, 2017

As I did after Palmer was decided, I will wait for DC to finally either win or lose this thing and then we will not have to game possible outcomes or permit scenarios

YMMV

Allen65 · Oct 1, 2017

CurlyDave said:
If Kennedy or Ginsburg retires, it doesn't matter if the Dems pick up Senate seats. The absolute worst we could do in that scenario is a 4-4 tie and that leaves the existing ruling unchanged. We win. I don't know if that sets a nationwide precedent, we need a legal eagle.

Unfortunately a 4-4 tie doesn't do anything nationally. The unfortunate rulings in 2nd, 3rd, & 4th Circuits still stand. If the court is likely to end up 4-4, it's in neither our nor DC's interest to pursue the case b/c in the end the existing DC Circuit ruling still stands and a lot of 2A money better spent elsewhere gets wasted defending a fait accomplis.

CrueChief · Oct 1, 2017

In my mind this only gets taken up by the SCOTUS if it were going to be a win for us. As they have had many previous opportunities to take the issue up and decide the other way.

Here's hoping anyway.

wolfwood · Oct 1, 2017

If Ginsburg dies while Trump is still in office, friends it is going to be a conservative majority for decades. If kennedy goes as well. life is going to be so great.
We will restore the comerce clause. Overturn the Hughes Act and the NFA, overturn Roe and defend religious liberty its going to be great

CypherPunk · Oct 1, 2017

Senator Kid Rock, Ambassador Dennis Rodman...

This would have been a great sci fi movie in the 90's.

MrNiceGuy · Oct 1, 2017

wolfwood said:
If Ginsburg dies while Trump is still in office, friends it is going to be a conservative majority for decades. If kennedy goes as well. life is going to be so great.
We will restore the comerce clause. Overturn the Hughes Act and the NFA, overturn Roe and defend religious liberty its going to be great

That's making quite a number of assumptions. First, that whoever Trump nominates is even outwardly conservative. Trump hasn't exactly been a bastion of conservatism over the course of his life. Yes, he's had some great Federal court picks, but past performance is not necessarily indicative of future gains. Second, that assumes the pick (assuming it's someone conservative) is confirmed. Potentially an issue depending on how the midterms go. Finally, it assumes that someone who looks like a conservative and talks like a conservative actually makes rulings like one both at the outset of their time on the Supreme Court and throughout their time there. I should think some previous US Presidents would sigh quite heavily if such a thing were suggested to them.

dblas · Oct 1, 2017

Inigoes said:
Time is on our side, Kennedy or Ginsberg aren't spring chickens.

They don't have to survive Trump, they just have to survive who has the majority of the Senate.

esqappellate · Oct 1, 2017

press1280 said:
If DC doesn't get a stay from the Circuit or SCOTUS, do they push the envelope and actually apply for cert before the 90 days, in order to get on the calendar for this term?

That’s certainly possible, but DC would have to act very quickly and respondents would have NOT to ask for an extension. So it is a game as to how DC and respondents see their respective interests in a quick resolution this Term. Frankly, I am not sure how this plays. There are hints that Kennedy will retire after this Term. If so (and it always a big if), Trump will have another appointment over the summer, when the Rep. will still have a Senate majority. That would further solidify the 5 person Heller majority. So, respondents may want to wait and DC would push.

But, For Heller to be safer and extended definitively to outside the home, one of the liberals will have to retire (or die) while Trump has a Rep. majority. Certainly it is possible that the Rep. will retain the Senate after 2018, given the alignment where a lot of Dems are up for re-election in states that Trump carried. But, that’s a huge uncertainty. Lots and lots of variables.

esqappellate · Oct 1, 2017

Allen65 said:
Unfortunately a 4-4 tie doesn't do anything nationally. The unfortunate rulings in 2nd, 3rd, & 4th Circuits still stand. If the court is likely to end up 4-4, it's in neither our nor DC's interest to pursue the case b/c in the end the existing DC Circuit ruling still stands and a lot of 2A money better spent elsewhere gets wasted defending a fait accomplis.

Actually, since plaintiffs won,they get Section 1988 fees. And if we get a 4-4 split, then plaintiffs get fees for the Supreme Court time too. The bill to DC will be rather substantial. So costs will not be an issue in a 4-4 vote. Alan Gura can walk and chew gum at the same time, so he can manage this.

wolfwood · Oct 1, 2017

esqappellate said:
Actually, since plaintiffs won,they get Section 1988 fees. And if we get a 4-4 split, then plaintiffs get fees for the Supreme Court time too. The bill to DC will be rather substantial. So costs will not be an issue in a 4-4 vote. Alan Gura can walk and chew gum at the same time, so he can manage this.

Which case actually overturned the law though?
Under the Buckhannon only the case that overturned the law gets paid.
Isn't there a pretty valid argument that only Wrenn or Grace overturned the law? So wouldn't the other one get shafted for fees? If so which one?

the NRA's case is the one that actually got the PI
does that matter or is it the first case to get a final order in it?

esqappellate · Oct 1, 2017

wolfwood said:
Which case actually overturned the law though?
Under the Buckhannon only the case that overturned the law gets paid.
Isn't there a pretty valid argument that only Wrenn or Grace overturned the law? So wouldn't the other one get shafted for fees? If so which one?

the NRA's case is the one that actually got the PI
does that matter or is it the first case to get a final order in it?

They both get fees, as they both get court ordered relief (the permanent injunction ordered by the court of appeals) under Buckhannon.

OrbitalEllipses · Oct 1, 2017

CypherPunk said:
Senator Kid Rock, Ambassador Dennis Rodman...

This would have been a great sci fi movie in the 90's.

esqappellate · Oct 1, 2017

swinokur said:
IIRC a 4-4 SCOTUS split means the DC Circuit ruling stands. The bad part is it does not resolve the circuit splits elsewhere, and specifically in the 4CA, where Woollard was decided. So a 4-4 vote at SCTOTUS would do nothing to resolve G&S in MD, only DC.

I am sure Esq. will weigh in and straighten me out if I'm wrong.

You are quite correct. So, if that happens, you bring another case in MD with the express purpose of taking it to the SCT on the basis of the split. Maybe ask for initial en banc in the 4th Circuit on the way.

Wrenn PI Granted (DC Shall Issue)

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