Wrenn PI Granted (DC Shall Issue)

[CurlyDave]

I don't see any advantage to either side delaying hoping for a better court composition. There's only nine justices who know their retirement plan, and they aren't telling. There's no guarantee the next Supreme Court Justice will be better or worse than Kennedy. At best, its a coin flip...

I disagree. Solid on the 2A is one of the requirements Trump has for a new Justice. Gorsuch was/is solid, and I trust Trump and his advisors.

 

[Inigoes]

I don't see any advantage to either side delaying hoping for a better court composition. There's only nine justices who know their retirement plan, and they aren't telling. There's no guarantee the next Supreme Court Justice will be better or worse than Kennedy. At best, its a coin flip.

The only advantage of more time is that it gives one more time to polish the argument. Anything I've ever written I take the maximum possible time, regardless of who's reading it.

Time is on our side, Kennedy or Ginsberg aren't spring chickens.

 

[HaveBlue]

It’s even dumber in DC, which criminalizes possession of even a spent .22 rimfire case. Hard to reuse one of those, after the rim has been crushed by the firing pin. That reality escapes DC, or more likely, it doesn’t care.

This is their full spectrum approach to civilian disarmament. Avoid issuing as many permits as possible for as long as possible. Meanwhile, create as many new felons as possible to reduce the pool of qualified applicants. If they aren’t insane, it’s hard to imagine another motive for criminalizing possession of a piece of harmless metal.

 

[danb]

I disagree. Solid on the 2A is one of the requirements Trump has for a new Justice. Gorsuch was/is solid, and I trust Trump and his advisors.

politicians are fickle. There is no guarantee the Senate will stay GOP, or that the GOP stays united (cant even repeal Obamacare!). Maybe even Trump trades a court pick to the Dems in return for movement on something else. Justices are also known to defy expectations and/or change their mind. As are politicians when the wind shifts direction.

 

[danb]

Time is on our side, Kennedy or Ginsberg aren't spring chickens.

See above.

 

[wjackcooper]

danb wrote: “I don't see any advantage to either side delaying hoping for a better court composition.”

Certainly there are no guarantees; however, given the actuary tables, Kennedy’s posture, not to mention that of Ginsberg, the expedited handling by the full court and the type of person Trump is likely to appoint – delay favors Wrenn, or at least it seems so to me.

Regards
Jack

 

[bunnybunny]

it is 9.3 more years for a male born August 15 1938 on the latest calculators.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/population/longevity.html
he probably has at least two years over that given pictures of him young show him fit and I don't see any smoking. obese people, smokers, and people who do not exercise are in those averages. he also certainly has access to better the average health care which is a supported presumption for a member of the supreme court.

Breyer is 79
RBG is is 84

RBG has had cancer twice and a stent put in her heart.

Average life expectancy for a male is 76.3 and 81.3 for a female. SSA link you have posted is the only one that claims that high of a life expectancy. They also emphasize average age once you hit an ambiguous age that they didn't feel compelled to cite.

Kennedy is 81

Thomas by all accounts is young at 67, but he's an overweight black male. He could have a heart attack any day just as much as Kennedy or Breyer.

 

[shacklefordbanks]

I know this may sound like getting ahead of ourselves, but I have an issue with the ban on guns on the Metro in DC. It's PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION. Public transportation is no more a sensitive place than a public street. Many people have no other way to get around town to work, doctors, and etc. I myself need to take the Metro all the time if I need to get downtown for some things where for whatever reason a car is not an option. I'm too old to bike or walk.

So is the ban on carry on the Metro also unconstitutional?

 

[swinokur]

DC also bans carry on public streets near the WH. T,P. and M restrictions will be upheld by most courts.

I agree that's getting ahead of ourselves. Let's get carry first, then focus on T ,P and M restrictions.

 

[danb]

danb wrote: “I don't see any advantage to either side delaying hoping for a better court composition.”

Certainly there are no guarantees; however, given the actuary tables, Kennedy’s posture, not to mention that of Ginsberg, the expedited handling by the full court and the type of person Trump is likely to appoint – delay favors Wrenn, or at least it seems so to me.

Regards
Jack

As far as Trump's nominees, statistically, the President's party loses loses 3 or so seats on avg in the Senate during mid-terms. I do not see the Dems approving a pro-gun 2A justice. It a push, the current court might be as good as it gets.

 

[CypherPunk]

Thanks. So it is likely that they would get a stay even though this makes several losses in a row on this? And DC MPD can deny any applications lacking provable G/R for a year if the docket or other timing pushes it to next term?



I think it would be helpful for us to have some practical advice as to the procedural/timing implications I want to recommend to several friends to apply. Already I have serious doubts as to current validity of the "under 600 applications as of july." I wonder if that is an answer to the press question in july reflecting an earlier period, moreover, I would think a lot of applications came in after late july panel decision. I gave sp/rs a call and for what it is worth he indicated his classes have been full up.



For example



pros/cons of taking classes now, and applying now declining to assert good cause.



pros and cons of waiting a week to see maneuvers related



pros and cons of waiting to see if cert or cert is granted and for which term.



pros/cons of not turning in good cause form, or turning it signed and blank, or singed and citing the decision,



I see there is a ten day limit on appeal, but what I do not see is anything in the code or emergency rulemaking on re-application based on material changes to either a persons life or court decisions. (lets leave the $75 downside out as this is not a significant portion of expenses). I mean presumably if you were declined and then a year later you had two documented MS13 threats including one where they shot at you, the answer can't be: "sorry you applied once, and that is it." So what is path for people who maybe declined before a possible denial of cert or SCOTUS affirmation?



In terms of expiration of training, would not a reapplication training be the more truncated 4 hours safety plus two hours range that is sufficient for renewal? My guess is if that is the case we would see the dozen trainers offer that package an appropriate rate.



Not asking that anyone promulgate a formal decision tree, but rather that informal thoughts might be shared for everyone's benefit on timing and tactics for non good cause people. I've helped about a dozen friends get firearms. You may now how it is, they are certain it is impossible and with bit of guidance on the allowed list, what they will need for sykes, the online test, they at generally surprised at it being easier than they thought.

You can apply first and complaint the training after conditional approval.

If I had already applied, I would appeal to them to reconsider my application without additional fees.

 

[fightinbluhen51]

As far as Trump's nominees, statistically, the President's party loses loses 3 or so seats on avg in the Senate during mid-terms. I do not see the Dems approving a pro-gun 2A justice. It a push, the current court might be as good as it gets.

Yeahbut...this cycle it's the dem controlled seats that are up term up than Repub.

And some of those seats are in vulnerable states that Trump carried. Hellooooooo Senator Kid Rock!?!

 

[danb]

Yeahbut...this cycle it's the dem controlled seats that are up term up than Repub.

And some of those seats are in vulnerable states that Trump carried. Hellooooooo Senator Kid Rock!?!

Mid 2015 polls also had the election as Jeb! vs Clinton, with Clinton winning. 18 months later...none of the above.

Reagan had a 65% approval rating in 1986, won 49/50 states in 84, yet in 86 the GOP still lost 8 seats. Stuff happens.

Polls this early are meaningless. We will not really know for certain who is vulnerable until we see the candidates after the primaries next year. And what, if anything, the Senate gets done.

 

[esqappellate]

Thanks. So it is likely that they would get a stay even though this makes several losses in a row on this? And DC MPD can deny any applications lacking provable G/R for a year if the docket or other timing pushes it to next term?

I think it would be helpful for us to have some practical advice as to the procedural/timing implications I want to recommend to several friends to apply. Already I have serious doubts as to current validity of the "under 600 applications as of july." I wonder if that is an answer to the press question in july reflecting an earlier period, moreover, I would think a lot of applications came in after late july panel decision. I gave sp/rs a call and for what it is worth he indicated his classes have been full up.

For example

pros/cons of taking classes now, and applying now declining to assert good cause.

pros and cons of waiting a week to see maneuvers related

pros and cons of waiting to see if cert or cert is granted and for which term.

pros/cons of not turning in good cause form, or turning it signed and blank, or singed and citing the decision,

I see there is a ten day limit on appeal, but what I do not see is anything in the code or emergency rulemaking on re-application based on material changes to either a persons life or court decisions. (lets leave the $75 downside out as this is not a significant portion of expenses). I mean presumably if you were declined and then a year later you had two documented MS13 threats including one where they shot at you, the answer can't be: "sorry you applied once, and that is it." So what is path for people who maybe declined before a possible denial of cert or SCOTUS affirmation?

In terms of expiration of training, would not a reapplication training be the more truncated 4 hours safety plus two hours range that is sufficient for renewal? My guess is if that is the case we would see the dozen trainers offer that package an appropriate rate.

Not asking that anyone promulgate a formal decision tree, but rather that informal thoughts might be shared for everyone's benefit on timing and tactics for non good cause people. I've helped about a dozen friends get firearms. You may now how it is, they are certain it is impossible and with bit of guidance on the allowed list, what they will need for sykes, the online test, they at generally surprised at it being easier than they thought.

I don’t give legal advice on the fora, but I won’t take the training or make the application until I have a better idea of the time line and that is just dependent on what DC does. For example, if everyone takes the allowed time and especially if anyone seeks an extension, this case, if cert is granted, won’t be argued until next term, with a decision not likely until sometime in 2019, maybe as late as June 2019. Similarly, if DC obtains a stay of mandate pending a cert petition under Rule 41, then there is no point in applying as the original stay issued by the DC Circuit stays in place and MDPD continues to apply the “good reason” requirement to deny applications.

 

[rascal]

DC also bans carry on public streets near the WH. T,P. and M restrictions will be upheld by most courts.

I agree that's getting ahead of ourselves. Let's get carry first, then focus on T ,P and M restrictions.

DC also bans carry on public streets near the WH. T,P. and M restrictions will be upheld by most courts.

I agree that's getting ahead of ourselves. Let's get carry first, then focus on T ,P and M restrictions.

The broader they define those restricted areas, the more they can arrest law abiding. They will be able to time "gun crime" increase to more carry licenses not only to the advent of increased licenses, but to license holders.

In fact I believe there is a clause in the DC emergency legislation that mandates they collect such data on gun crime committed by CCL holders and make it publically available

 

[rascal]

Yeahbut...this cycle it's the dem controlled seats that are up term up than Repub.

And some of those seats are in vulnerable states that Trump carried. Hellooooooo Senator Kid Rock!?!

Yes, it true that under normal circumstances the GOP has an edge in seats that are up. But let's face it these are extraordinary and unprecedented times politically. You and I may know that much of the President's problems are because the press, the elected elites, and unelected elites did not make him, and do not own him, and hence hate him. But at some point the shtstorm or negativity has an effect because people are often sheep.

I am just saying I think the risks are higher than "normal" cycles.

 

[Peaceful John]

Yes, it true that under normal circumstances the GOP has an edge in seats that are up. But let's face it these are extraordinary and unprecedented times politically . . . I am just saying I think the risks are higher than "normal" cycles.

Agreed that the risks are higher, but not necessarily for us. Consider the recent Roy Moore election. Trump caved and supported McConnell's establishment choice, Luther Strange. The voters rebelled and Moore prevailed. Someone (not I) recognized this as an early example of Trumpism being more popular than Trump. I thought that to be an insightful observation.

The risk appears weighted towards the establishment candidates. I would speculate that the combined Republican-Democrat party will be disappointed in the 2018 results.

 

[rascal]

Average life expectancy for a male is 76.3 and 81.3 for a female. SSA link you have posted is the only one that claims that high of a life expectancy. They also emphasize average age once you hit an ambiguous age that they didn't feel compelled to cite.

No, you are making a common mistake. life expectancy at birth and average life expectancy is always lower in younger persons.

Each you are you live your life expectancy average increases over that 76.3. 1938 males who have lived to Beryers age, all other risks being equal, have an average life expectancy of 88.4 not 76.3

The 76.3 average includes people <b>already</b> dead from infant mortality, polio, a zillion diseases, accidents, the flu, Korean war, car accidents, smoking, suicides, heat attacks at 60, stokes at 70 etc. if about 3 million people where born in Breyer's birth year cohort, than about 2 million would already be dead. They are part of the average.

Moreover, since we took one year on garland the dems will claim a legitimacy to one upping to two years. meaning if senate splits next year no more trump SCOTUS appointments for any vacancy that does not occur in the next 16 months, and if does not split, 40 months.

Agreed that the risks are higher, but not necessarily for us. Consider the recent Roy Moore election. Trump caved and supported McConnell's establishment choice, Luther Strange. The voters rebelled and Moore prevailed. Someone (not I) recognized this as an early example of Trumpism being more popular than Trump. I thought that to be an insightful observation.

The risk appears weighted towards the establishment candidates. I would speculate that the combined Republican-Democrat party will be disappointed in the 2018 results.

I get your point and do not discount it, but Alabama is not a swing state.
And yes, a lot would have to go wrong to lose the Senate. But if you are the status quo interested party, and having the house, senate, and white house makes us status quo interested, then volatility is a negative

 

[rascal]

I don’t give legal advice on the fora, but I won’t take the training or make the application until I have a better idea of the time line and that is just dependent on what DC does. For example, if everyone takes the allowed time and especially if anyone seeks an extension, this case, if cert is granted, won’t be argued until next term, with a decision not likely until sometime in 2019, maybe as late as June 2019. Similarly, if DC obtains a stay of mandate pending a cert petition under Rule 41, then there is no point in applying as the original stay issued by the DC Circuit stays in place and MDPD continues to apply the “good reason” requirement to deny applications.

thanks for the thoughtful reply.

I am wondering if DC turns down say a couple thousand on failure to show good reason by the time the case is heard, do those aggregate to gura's rationing argument? Do those become a larger class of harmed individuals? Also June 2019 still means within two years on the training expense as it looks like it is from date of submission. So training expense now would not be lost with a July 2019 application. Even Re-application would not seem to be an issue if there is any material change in the law.

What is the soonest cert could be denied? (while I am not sure this falls completely into the traditional "split" of the type that always prompts cert, but then again with a threshold of four for cert, I suppose it is more likely than not.) Even if it is unlikely, it is possible.

 

[CurlyDave]

As far as Trump's nominees, statistically, the President's party loses loses 3 or so seats on avg in the Senate during mid-terms. I do not see the Dems approving a pro-gun 2A justice. It a push, the current court might be as good as it gets.

If Kennedy or Ginsburg retires, it doesn't matter if the Dems pick up Senate seats. The absolute worst we could do in that scenario is a 4-4 tie and that leaves the existing ruling unchanged. We win. I don't know if that sets a nationwide precedent, we need a legal eagle.

Even if we lose Senate seats, Trump will not nominate an anti-2A Justice. The seat will remain empty.

The only potential issue I see is Thomas, and I suspect that black life expectancy has as much to do with socio-economic status as genetics. He is in the first quintile in socio-economic status and I have great hope that he will be with us for many years to come.