Panic Buying HBARS?

[Occam]

From only a small sampling circle of acquaintances, I'm personally aware of over a dozen ARs purchased in Maryland within the last couple of weeks that would have been many months out otherwise, if ever purchased at all. Seems to be some gambling on the likelihood of a grandfathering-amended version of this going through, or some definite willingness to Not Comply after Oct 1, on purchases made while the getting is possible at all. Don't know if it amounts to outright panic buying, but it's not just some seasonal bump, either.

 

[fabsroman]

Fidelity: The leverage with HBARs and the LGQL is the documented rational response of people to empty out the gun stores prior to regulation.

The more this narrative is brought to their attention the greater the chance the Extreme Infringer Left might be subject to pressure from the Hand-Wringing Left.

Make no mistake about it, if the LGQL bill passes, I will be buying several more firearms that I had not intended on buying for many, many years, if even ever. Was texting with Lazzarus tonight about having to beg my wife to allow me to get a Blaser R8 if this LGQL passes. Think I am more furious about the LGQL than I am about the HBAR bill, but not by much. I have smoke coming out my ears tonight. Only way to stop some of the smoke is to add items to my watch list on gunbroker.

I will leave the LGS stuff for the rest of you. I'll just buy what I want from other states in the nation and have it all shipped to my favorite LGS, SCSG. Gunbroker has plenty of what I want should the LGQL pass.

 

[fabsroman]

From only a small sampling circle of acquaintances, I'm personally aware of over a dozen ARs purchased in Maryland within the last couple of weeks that would have been many months out otherwise, if ever purchased at all. Seems to be some gambling on the likelihood of a grandfathering-amended version of this going through, or some definite willingness to Not Comply after Oct 1, on purchases made while the getting is possible at all. Don't know if it amounts to outright panic buying, but it's not just some seasonal bump, either.

I guess that makes sense. It just seems so easy to mod an AR lower however you like it, especially if you are not going to comply, but I forget that there are some people out there that struggle to replace a light bulb. Barrel nut, what the heck is a barrel nut? Same guys you ask, "Go get me a dikfer out of the tool box please." Then, you get a good laugh. Better yet, you ask them to go get a 5 gallon bucket of steam to help wipe down the dikfer. lol

 

[Rack&Roll]

Guess I am having a hard time understanding all the reasons to buy several ARs right now, especially from the "We Will Not Comply Crowd".

Just wrote a crap ton regarding why I do not understand this, but I deleted it because nobody needs to be any wiser about firearms laws.

To keep things simple, just go with the “I Will Comply Crowd”...

You spend far too much time fretting about things that you have declared you don’t want to be involved in.

Isn’t there a pastime or diversion that would better align with your interests? .

 

[Occam]

I forget that there are some people out there that struggle to replace a light bulb.

In this neck of the woods there are also a lot of people with decent incomes and very little time or extra mental/hobby bandwidth - but whose radar is going off over this, bigly. They aren't (yet, anyway ... paging Dr. Clandestine - stat!) ready to go down the internet AR parts rabbit hole or start worrying if they know what sort of thread locker and torque wrench to buy... they just don't want to have blown a possible last chance to ever get something that they can buy for less than the cost of a dinner for four (with decent drinks) at l'Auberge Chez Francois.

I get it. A ready-to-go rifle from S&W or the like is pretty appealing to folks who have other time priorities. And if they even get the concept, it'll be something like a complete 300BO upper to swap around in case Johnny Law ever cares. Mostly, it's just the natural reaction to hearing you may be blocked from owning something. They'd feel the same way about cigars or non-electric lawnmowers, if that happened next. At least one person I talked to was looking at a couple of ARs strictly as investments in anticipation of a crazy market down the road. Wish I could say that was silly.

 

[fidelity]

Fidelity: The leverage with HBARs and the LGQL is the documented rational response of people to empty out the gun stores prior to regulation.

The more this narrative is brought to their attention the greater the chance the Extreme Infringer Left might be subject to pressure from the Hand-Wringing Left.

If I remember your testimony and others, including some in law enforcement, there was a discernable increase in handgun-associated homicides post HQL, at least in Baltimore. Interesting correlation, and one wonders if there's in fact a causal relationship.

What do they think will happen if there's a run on long gun sales? Some folks that possibly resisted getting them in the past because they might have considered suicide or had other harmful impulses might lose that self check, and will now be thinking it's now or never to make their purchase (and hope they can control their impulses). Some folks engaged in criminal activities that haven't yet been caught or have a record might also go on a binge. They think they're making amends for the Capital Gazette shooting, but how many deaths are they trading for this ill considered, political reaction.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

 

[Rack&Roll]

Exactly.

“The Law of Unintended Consequences” is the phrase I used while testifying.

 

[fabsroman]

To keep things simple, just go with the “I Will Comply Crowd”...

You spend far too much time fretting about things that you have declared you don’t want to be involved in.

Isn’t there a pastime or diversion that would better align with your interests? .

You crack me up Rack. Simple? My life has not been simple since I started kindergarten. Just not the type of person I am. Not full of drama and theatrics, but not simple. Heck, I have a wife, 4 kids, a mortgage, and a law practice, and something always needs to be repaired. How could life ever be "simple"?

My life revolves around complexity, and I like it. Simple is boring.

Would a prudent person really scream from the roof tops "I WILL NOT COMPLY", or merely be quiet on the subject and then secretly not comply? I truly wonder how many people screaming "I WILL NOT COMPLY" will actually not comply if these laws are passed. Easy to say things, easy to wear a t-shirt. Easy to write things. Think there is a saying regarding this and it goes something like this, "Actions speak louder than words." Granted, a prudent person would not let his actions be known to many, if any, if a prudent person was not going to comply.

FYI - my pastimes are hunting, fishing, shooting, and cycling the order of which depends on the season. Been interested in them since I was 5 years old.

To be or not to be?

To comply or not to comply?

Those are the questions.

 

[fabsroman]

If I remember your testimony and others, including some in law enforcement, there was a discernable increase in handgun-associated homicides post HQL, at least in Baltimore. Interesting correlation, and one wonders if there's in fact a causal relationship.

What do they think will happen if there's a run on long gun sales? Some folks that possibly resisted getting them in the past because they might have considered suicide or had other harmful impulses might lose that self check, and will now be thinking it's now or never to make their purchase (and hope they can control their impulses). Some folks engaged in criminal activities that haven't yet been caught or have a record might also go on a binge. They think they're making amends for the Capital Gazette shooting, but how many deaths are they trading for this ill considered, political reaction.

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Devil's advocate here.

What if we outlaw them and homicides and suicides uptick in the short term, but do to a lack of additional guns entering the system, and the Benchmade destruction of firearms turned in or used in a crime, the supply of firearms out there dwindles and therefore there is a long term benefit to this?

That could be how they are thinking.

Granted, I think that is some serious BS, but I bet that is what they are thinking, with absolutely no thought about how gun control worked in DC for 30+ years. It did nothing in DC. Just like the FSA2013 is doing nothing in Baltimore City. Gun laws have actually become more lax in DC after Heller and there has not been a massive uptick in violence as a result.

Anyway, one needs to understand how the other side thinks, to be able to rebut the other side's arguments and theories.

Outlawing drugs did not work. Gun control in nations and states did not work. Gun control in Maryland will not work to stem violence. They need to work on education and economics or Baltimore will end up like Detroit. Kind of crazy to think that Detroit was the richest city in America in 1960. Now, good Lord.

 

[Occam]

That could be how they are thinking.

They are thinking two things:

1) Like every Nanny State crew that ever existed, they're convinced that their sort of control over society just hasn't been done right before, and that they're - finally! - the ones to come along and do it right so everything will be wonderful. That's how highly they think of themselves, and how much contempt they have for everyone else. So if this sort of thing doesn't produce the results they pretend it will? Well that just means they have to double down, and push even harder.

2) Speaking of contempt ... they also think that this sort of thing will be just the ticket to demoralize and politically emasculate the demographic they passionately hate so very, very much. That's us - non-compliant, non-progressive, non-moonbat conservatives and libertarians and constitutionalists. They know this gets under our skin and causes all sorts of misery in our ranks, and they'd be willing to do all of this and more just for the satisfaction of knowing it will piss you off. And with luck, leave. They hate you. They hate me. They want us gone, one way or another. Because all they have is love and tolerance and we're the fly in the ointment. Or so they believe. It's not about our guns. It's about us, and this is a bludgeon with which to hit us. And all their plans don't reduce crime? Well, that's a sure sign of how deplorable we all are, never mind the complete lack of any causal relationship. They don't CARE about any of that, and the media gives them cover on that front.

 

[Rack&Roll]

You crack me up Rack. Simple? My life has not been simple since I started kindergarten. Just not the type of person I am. Not full of drama and theatrics, but not simple. Heck, I have a wife, 4 kids, a mortgage, and a law practice, and something always needs to be repaired. How could life ever be "simple"?

My life revolves around complexity, and I like it. Simple is boring.

Would a prudent person really scream from the roof tops "I WILL NOT COMPLY", or merely be quiet on the subject and then secretly not comply? I truly wonder how many people screaming "I WILL NOT COMPLY" will actually not comply if these laws are passed. Easy to say things, easy to wear a t-shirt. Easy to write things. Think there is a saying regarding this and it goes something like this, [B"Actions speak louder than words."[/B] Granted, a prudent person would not let his actions be known to many, if any, if a prudent person was not going to comply.

FYI - my pastimes are hunting, fishing, shooting, and cycling the order of which depends on the season. Been interested in them since I was 5 years old.

To be or not to be?

To comply or not to comply?

Those are the questions.

Fabs: not a thing I can say to someone who repeatedly declares that he is a captive to his lifestyle and will not risk standing up PERSONALLY in front of infringers to tell them he objects to punitive gun laws.

Not a thing I can say to someone who thinks that the key to winning over the infringers is to understand “how they think” so as to rebut their “theories” and “arguments”.

Have you heard of Fabs Bingo? It involves a bingo card with squares that say “wife”, “four kids”, “mortgage”, law practice”, “big house”, “can’t risk jail”, “other calibers”, “other rifles” etc. etc.

We have Fabs Bingo winners about every day in threads all over MDS.

“We Will Not Comply” seems to create a great deal of discomfort for you. So just put it out of your mind.

 

[fidelity]

Devil's advocate here.



What if we outlaw them and homicides and suicides uptick in the short term, but do to a lack of additional guns entering the system, and the Benchmade destruction of firearms turned in or used in a crime, the supply of firearms out there dwindles and therefore there is a long term benefit to this?


That could be how they are thinking.


...

Posting from my phone, so some of what I write will be fragmented. I agree that they're thinking long-term. However I bet that they don't like/want the potential short-term spike in deaths - just as we wouldn't - no one wants increased suicides and homicides in Maryland. Thus the HQL effect, if the relationship was causal, probably concerns them.

This double permit idea, is a dumber than dumb idea, and represents a rushed desire to do something. Here that something could result in more deaths.

To better buttress the argument, one would need a better understanding (than I have) of long gun associated deaths in the state. They're far less contributing in homicides and, I believe, suicides than handguns. Thus the spike in deaths might be smaller, if the surge in 2013 buying had anything to do with more gun deaths in later years, after a 2019 buying spree. (I actually doubt this because there's also ongoing uptick in handgun sales according to my sources - people buying long guns seem to be generally shopping)

What I'm getting at, in a round about way, is that the long-term decrease in firearm associated deaths might be small from a LGQL law ... because long guns are a small contributor to the steady state whole in past years. However the relative number of long gun associated deaths (as well as handgun associated deaths) might bump up in the short term. If you listened to the Senator pushing this bill when she introduced it, she was arguing that the law was needed even if it saved one person. Well suppose it kills 100 more in 2021 (with both the handgun and long gun buying surge in 2019), 90 more in 2022, etc in the short-term ... and increases suicides by long guns for an extended period with the greater pool (by gun banner logic that more guns are bad). What sort of offset in lives putatively saved is she predicting? If it somehow prevents two mass killers (it won't, of course) from getting shotguns, when we will perceive an effect? 30 years from now? How many additional deaths were traded over this time period for what will be a small reduction in total firearm associated deaths far out in the future? Of course they've made no attempt at this sort of efficacy analysis, so the Senator talked about her kids being safe when they go to a movie theater (neglecting the fact that she might have encouraged a previously non perceived unstable person to go get long guns before it becomes harder).

...

Granted, I think that is some serious BS, but I bet that is what they are thinking, with absolutely no thought about how gun control worked in DC for 30+ years. It did nothing in DC. Just like the FSA2013 is doing nothing in Baltimore City. Gun laws have actually become more lax in DC after Heller and there has not been a massive uptick in violence as a result.



Anyway, one needs to understand how the other side thinks, to be able to rebut the other side's arguments and theories.



Outlawing drugs did not work. Gun control in nations and states did not work. Gun control in Maryland will not work to stem violence. They need to work on education and economics or Baltimore will end up like Detroit. Kind of crazy to think that Detroit was the richest city in America in 1960. Now, good Lord.

I agree that they won't succeed with their objectives involving long gun associated deaths and will drive more of the industry underground. FTF exchanges between citizens borders on tradition in most of the US. Lot of people who normally are not on the radar for law enforcement will trade/sell long guns between friends should this nonsense pass, especially for guns owned prior to the potential law start date. How will anyone know? "Oh, I sold that to you in 2018, right?" There's no requirement of a bill of sale. I'm not advocating anything, but making a prediction.

Moreover, you know who's even more disgusted with government record keeping in the gun community than handgun owners, lol ... long gun owners. You start monitoring their long guns, and it's as if you're monitoring family members, their children. I mean reading your posts about your shotguns and rifles, some from your dad, and there's smoke coming out of your ears with regards to the government further intruding on something that they never ever would have touched in 1791 or the years that followed. Dear Patriots, please get permission from your state government to purchase long guns or sell among yourselves. Lol, that would have gone over well. Granted, we have capitulated to more and more restrictions involving long guns over the years, but now they actually want to regulate our muskets (Dumais) and hunting rifles, keeping records of them. They'll never use records to confiscate of course ...

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

 

[fabsroman]

Fabs: not a thing I can say to someone who repeatedly declares that he is a captive to his lifestyle and will not risk standing up PERSONALLY in front of infringers to tell them he objects to punitive gun laws.

Not a thing I can say to someone who thinks that the key to winning over the infringers is to understand “how they think” so as to rebut their “theories” and “arguments”.

Have you heard of Fabs Bingo? It involves a bingo card with squares that say “wife”, “four kids”, “mortgage”, law practice”, “big house”, “can’t risk jail”, “other calibers”, “other rifles” etc. etc.

We have Fabs Bingo winners about every day in threads all over MDS.

Nah, you confuse not being willing to stand up for what I believe in, with not being willing to stand next to you. It is a huge difference. Hoping the Rack bingo with "We Will Not Comply", "Two Middle Fingers", and "Brockman v. Hogan" hits for me.

Did you demand respect from our legislators? Are they going to give you the respect due and withdraw all these bills? I surely hope so, for my sake and the sake of thousands and thousands of others.

Thing is, I still highly respect Mopar. Not my style, but I respect his nonetheless.

 

[Laj]

 

[Rack&Roll]

Nah, you confuse not being willing to stand up for what I believe in, with not being willing to stand next to you. It is a huge difference. Hoping the Rack bingo with "We Will Not Comply", "Two Middle Fingers", and "Brockman v. Hogan" hits for me.

Did you demand respect from our legislators? Are they going to give you the respect due and withdraw all these bills? I surely hope so, for my sake and the sake of thousands and thousands of others.

Thing is, I still highly respect Mopar. Not my style, but I respect his nonetheless.

No one has ever cornered you or confronted you to ask why “We Will Not Comply” does not suit you.

You doth protest too much, sir.

After 10-20 posts now about how “We Will Not Comply” conflicts with your lifestyle, well, we get it!

The project is simple: join or don’t.

We take you at your word: you’re not in.

Got it.

 

[fabsroman]

No one has ever cornered you or confronted you to ask why “We Will Not Comply” does not suit you.

You doth protest too much, sir.

After 10-20 posts now about how “We Will Not Comply” conflicts with your lifestyle, well, we get it!

The project is simple: join or don’t.

We take you at your word: you’re not in.

Got it.

And isn't that the pot calling the kettle black. Thou art a professional protester. lol

You think your project is "simple". Enlighten me as to how it is simple? You think Brockman v. Hogan, a project of yours, is simple? lol If you think that, we definitely are not getting that bingo spot. You picked the face of Patriot Picket, the spokesman, to be the lead plaintiff on that one. Was it just that simple?

Yes, I am not in with you, that is for sure.

Whether I comply or not, will be for me, and me alone, to decide and to know. However, your shirts garnered national attention. I see them on the news, in my Yahoo feed, and all over the place. Ah, I'm hallucinating again. Only place I see them is on this board where you continually post links to them from other gun boards/organizations that are giving you a high five. A little over a month and we shall see if we get that bingo spot.

I get it, you are all in, with simplicity.

 

[Combloc]

Ego run amok.

 

[Rack&Roll]

I get it, you are all in, with simplicity.

Hahaha, correct!

Not that complicated! See you at the next MDS lunch.

 

[71Chevelle427]

So...is it too early to post my unfired Colt 6721, for 2 grand, or not?

 

[shmuel2004]

It's funny that we glorify leaders who promote civil disobedience to protest things like racial discrimination, but if what gun owners say they will be civilly disobedient, they are labeled as terrorists.