MPT State Circle and Gun Control

gtodave · Jul 27, 2015

It seems like the anti's always reference the latest obscure "gun study" during these debates...that way they have all the info, and the person on the other side has no points of reference to counter with.

The study was done by Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research, a part of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health....so I'm sure it was completely fair and balanced :sarcasm:

It should be noted that crime went down EVERYWHERE during that timeframe as well...with the possible exceptions of Baltimore and Chicago.

Dan, you did well. Next time, drop a note here as soon as you can, and we can try to research the most recent "studies" to give you as much ammo as possible.

gtodave · Jul 27, 2015

good info on that "study":

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015...ed-to-steep-drop-in-homicides-not-really.html

"Sure, from 1995 to 2005 the firearm homicide rate in Connecticut did indeed fall from 3.13 to 1.88 per 100,000 people, a 40% drop over a ten-year period. Not mentioned is that the firearms homicide rate was falling even faster immediately before the licensing law went into effect, falling from 4.5 to 3.13 per 100,000 residents -- more than a 30 percent drop in just two years."

"In any case, their results change appreciably if just one more year is added to their data. Between 1995 and 2006, Connecticut’s firearm homicide rate fell by just 16 percent. By comparison, the rates for the U.S. and the rest of the Northeast fell respectively by 27 percent and 22 percent."

Schipperke · Jul 27, 2015

Good rebuttal to the study. The first thought when DeMarco mentioned the decrease was the same was true for the entire country. Not the 40% rate, but as shown cherry pick a range of years and you get what you want. One factor of crime rates that seldom get mentioned is median age of a country, society. Some of the decrease in crime in the USA can be tied to rising median age.

dblas · Jul 27, 2015

gtodave said:
good info on that "study":

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015...ed-to-steep-drop-in-homicides-not-really.html

"Sure, from 1995 to 2005 the firearm homicide rate in Connecticut did indeed fall from 3.13 to 1.88 per 100,000 people, a 40% drop over a ten-year period. Not mentioned is that the firearms homicide rate was falling even faster immediately before the licensing law went into effect, falling from 4.5 to 3.13 per 100,000 residents -- more than a 30 percent drop in just two years."

"In any case, their results change appreciably if just one more year is added to their data. Between 1995 and 2006, Connecticut’s firearm homicide rate fell by just 16 percent. By comparison, the rates for the U.S. and the rest of the Northeast fell respectively by 27 percent and 22 percent."

In addition to that, the CT permit to purchase is ALSO a permit to carry.

dblas · Jul 27, 2015

Schipperke said:
Good rebuttal to the study. The first thought when DeMarco mentioned the decrease was the same was true for the entire country. Not the 40% rate, but as shown cherry pick a range of years and you get what you want. One factor of crime rates that seldom get mentioned is median age of a country, society. Some of the decrease in crime in the USA can be tied to rising median age.

The FBI UCR has several tables that account for age, and none of them show a large decrease or increase over the years.

Per the UCR, the raw numbers on crime continue to drop, while the population numbers continue to increase. Even if the population stayed the same from 1993 (when the UCR started) there is still a year over year decrease in crime.

Schipperke · Jul 27, 2015

The median age in the USA hit a low in the late 1960's-1970 at under 28 years old. Violent crime per-capita was higher than today. Today's median age is 38. Other factors helping the crime rate fall are incarceration and legalized abortion (which also bumps up median age of the country). The violent crime rate per age group remains fairly constant, but it is the aging of a country that then brings the crime rate down per capita, that is easy to understand.

One favorite country gun law advocates point to for low violent crime is Japan. Median age there is 46 . Italy 43 etc. The thing keeping median age in the USA a bit lower is the immigration.

DC-W · Jul 27, 2015

Schipperke said:
The median age in the USA hit a low in the late 1960's-1970 at under 28 years old. Violent crime per-capita was higher than today. Today's median age is 38. Other factors helping the crime rate fall are incarceration and legalized abortion (which also bumps up median age of the country). The violent crime rate per age group remains fairly constant, but it is the aging of a country that then brings the crime rate down per capita, that is easy to understand.

One favorite country gun law advocates point to for low violent crime is Japan. Median age there is 46 . Italy 43 etc. The thing keeping median age in the USA a bit lower is the immigration.

Not to mention at all that the cultures and societies of those places are substantially less diverse than in the US.

Jim12 · Jul 27, 2015

Sorry I didn't notice this thread until last night and missed the show.

Mike · Jul 30, 2015

This probably does not help our case that FSA 2013 has had a 'chilling effect' on 2A rights, but look at the graph on page three of this MD gov site.... It seems that something (@ 1600 Penn. Ave perhaps?) has been driving handgun sales in MD these past few years. Interesting data all the same.

It says "approximately 50,000 shell casings that accumulated due to increased gun sales associated with the enactment of the Firearm Safety Act of 2013."

So 'they' think FSA 2013 increased handgun sales? Why, because it outlawed the sale of those 'scary' rifles?

http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2015RS/fnotes/bil_0006/sb0736.pdf

Jim12 · Jul 30, 2015

Mike said:
This probably does not help our case that FSA 2013 has had a 'chilling effect' on 2A rights, but look at the graph on page three of this MD gov site.... It seems that something (@ 1600 Penn. Ave perhaps?) has been driving handgun sales in MD these past few years. Interesting data all the same.

It says "approximately 50,000 shell casings that accumulated due to increased gun sales associated with the enactment of the Firearm Safety Act of 2013."

So 'they' think FSA 2013 increased handgun sales? Why, because it outlawed the sale of those 'scary' rifles?

http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2015RS/fnotes/bil_0006/sb0736.pdf

Couldn't get the link .pdf to open.

eruby · Jul 30, 2015

Jim12 said:
Couldn't get the link .pdf to open.

Try this one

View attachment magleg.pdf

Schipperke · Jul 30, 2015

Mike said:
This probably does not help our case that FSA 2013 has had a 'chilling effect' on 2A rights, but look at the graph on page three of this MD gov site.... It seems that something (@ 1600 Penn. Ave perhaps?) has been driving handgun sales in MD these past few years. Interesting data all the same.

It says "approximately 50,000 shell casings that accumulated due to increased gun sales associated with the enactment of the Firearm Safety Act of 2013."

So 'they' think FSA 2013 increased handgun sales? Why, because it outlawed the sale of those 'scary' rifles?

http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2015RS/fnotes/bil_0006/sb0736.pdf

In year 2014, G41 and G42 :lol2:

Jim12 · Jul 30, 2015

eruby said:
Try this one

View attachment 155605

Thanks, that worked.

It seems incomprehensible to me that handgun sales in MD jumped in calendar 2014, and were actually down in calendar 2013 from 2012. Something's not right there. People were buying hand over fist in 2013 to beat the Oct. 2013 HQL deadline. Therefore, it appears that maybe one or more of several things might account for that chart:

1. The word "calendar" is a typo, and should be "fiscal", so fiscal 2014 would include part of 2013, pre-HQL; or

2. There was a lag of up to several months between the actual handgun sales in 2013, and MSP's report of when the shell casing "submissions" were made or logged in. Indeed, the MSP fax machines were said to be burning up with all the paperwork submissions up to October 2013, and one can only imagine what its incoming mail department was doing with the lower-priority barrels full of shell casing submissions that were arriving at the same time.

Of course, somebody could be messing with the numbers, too, but that would be out of the question in this upstanding state.

Mike · Jul 30, 2015

View attachment shell casing.pdf

^ Here is the pdf as an attachment
below should be the graphic from page 3. My 'casing' should be there in the 2014 count.

ShafTed · Jul 30, 2015

Mike said:
This probably does not help our case that FSA 2013 has had a 'chilling effect' on 2A rights, but look at the graph on page three of this MD gov site.... It seems that something (@ 1600 Penn. Ave perhaps?) has been driving handgun sales in MD these past few years. Interesting data all the same.

It says "approximately 50,000 shell casings that accumulated due to increased gun sales associated with the enactment of the Firearm Safety Act of 2013."

So 'they' think FSA 2013 increased handgun sales? Why, because it outlawed the sale of those 'scary' rifles?

http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2015RS/fnotes/bil_0006/sb0736.pdf

I think it's more fudging of dates, the analysis states that they added 4 new full time positions plus 4 more part time to take care of the 2013 back log, so the data got entered into the data base in 2014. What happened was pre-Oct 2013 sales included pretty much every handgun sale that probably would have been spread out from Oct 2013 through maybe 2020, which was people buying handguns before the infringement of the HQL went into effect. There will be a very drastic decrease in handgun sales when the 2015 and up data are available. The Firearms Act of 2013 is definitely working as intended, look at how many FFLs have gone out of business, due to lack of business.

Edit: what do you want to bet the decrease from 2012 to 2013 was Martypants telling the MSP to slow down processing to try to discourage/prevent what he knew would be a flood of pre-Oct sales?

Jim12 · Jul 30, 2015

Somebody needs to correct that misleading chart and its mis-statement of historical fact, loud and clear, for the record. And apparently it's already part of the record.

Otherwise, we all know that it will be used to bolster the baseless argument that FSA2013 didn't deter handgun sales.

Mr H · Jul 30, 2015

Mike said:
This probably does not help our case that FSA 2013 has had a 'chilling effect' on 2A rights, but look at the graph on page three of this MD gov site.... It seems that something (@ 1600 Penn. Ave perhaps?) has been driving handgun sales in MD these past few years. Interesting data all the same.

It says "approximately 50,000 shell casings that accumulated due to increased gun sales associated with the enactment of the Firearm Safety Act of 2013."

So 'they' think FSA 2013 increased handgun sales? Why, because it outlawed the sale of those 'scary' rifles?

http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2015RS/fnotes/bil_0006/sb0736.pdf

There was also a huge surge in AR rifle (and lower) sales in the middle of 2013.

TopShelf · Jul 30, 2015

MPT has posted the show http://video.mpt.tv/video/2365537119/

Mark75H · Jul 30, 2015

Mike said:
View attachment 155606

^ Here is the pdf as an attachment
below should be the graphic from page 3. My 'casing' should be there in the 2014 count.

View attachment 155607

Has to be cataloging delay. I would like to see the year to date numbers for 2015. ... 10,000?

ShallNotInfringe · Jul 30, 2015

TopShelf said:
MPT has posted the show http://video.mpt.tv/video/2365537119/

Thanks

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