In my opinion there's really no way to tell what the scope of the ruling will be. Trying to guess what one judge will do is nigh impossible, figuring out what 9 together will do is like picking the Saturday night lottery numbers in advance.
That being said, here's my guess on the lotto.
I think it is probable that the court will find some kind of an individual right exists. Incorporation of that right into the state laws is something that will be inferred in the decision and probably occur gradually. This court is not going to spend it's time hearing a case like this to have it only affect DC and federal territories and property. But doing it all in one fell swoop and seeing what happens is a leap I don't think even the most conservative justices will be willing to take, they will not formally enumerate the Second as an incorporated right.
I think what you will see is some kind of a decision that invalidates total bans on guns, like they have in DC & Chicago. It will definitely include protections for the law-abiding to own some kind of long gun, and probably handguns too.
It will not however go to the point of invalidating most state and federal gun control laws. Illinois will still have their FOID, Cali will still have their silly AWB, and Marylanders will still have Brian Frosh telling them they're "nuts" and will never have shall-issue.
However, the important thing will be that the Supreme Court will tell America that individual citizens do have an individual right to keep and bear arms. That, my friends, is a very, very big head start on gaining future legal ground, and just as importantly the public opinion, needed to roll back gun control laws.
I'll paraphrase a little of what Churchill said after the Battle of Britian. It will not be the end of this legal fight, "it will not be the beginning of the end, but it will perhaps be, the end of the beginning."
That being said, here's my guess on the lotto.
I think it is probable that the court will find some kind of an individual right exists. Incorporation of that right into the state laws is something that will be inferred in the decision and probably occur gradually. This court is not going to spend it's time hearing a case like this to have it only affect DC and federal territories and property. But doing it all in one fell swoop and seeing what happens is a leap I don't think even the most conservative justices will be willing to take, they will not formally enumerate the Second as an incorporated right.
I think what you will see is some kind of a decision that invalidates total bans on guns, like they have in DC & Chicago. It will definitely include protections for the law-abiding to own some kind of long gun, and probably handguns too.
It will not however go to the point of invalidating most state and federal gun control laws. Illinois will still have their FOID, Cali will still have their silly AWB, and Marylanders will still have Brian Frosh telling them they're "nuts" and will never have shall-issue.
However, the important thing will be that the Supreme Court will tell America that individual citizens do have an individual right to keep and bear arms. That, my friends, is a very, very big head start on gaining future legal ground, and just as importantly the public opinion, needed to roll back gun control laws.
I'll paraphrase a little of what Churchill said after the Battle of Britian. It will not be the end of this legal fight, "it will not be the beginning of the end, but it will perhaps be, the end of the beginning."
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