How long will the SHTF last?

[TheOriginalMexicanBob]

Know your terrain and the larger picture, geography.

Home field advantage is a thing.

Amateurs study maps...professionals study terrain.

 

[teratos]

On a hugely serious note…

I was in the ABC (likker) store just after the bulk of Covid.
struck up a conversation with the mgr.

said I noticed they stayed open when almost everyone else was closed

mgr said the state medical folks estimated no more than a week after closing (if they’d taken that route), they’d be broken into a looted to the floor

alcoholism is much more prevalent than most anybody suspects

self medication ramps up during emergencies and disasters

so meds (pharmaceuticals) can be really important but don’t forget self medication for non traditional (undiagnosed) issues

thank goodness for stills

There are a LOT of functional alcoholics out there. The ERs would be overwhelmed with alcohol withdrawal patients, too.

 

[lazarus]

On a hugely serious note…

I was in the ABC (likker) store just after the bulk of Covid.
struck up a conversation with the mgr.

said I noticed they stayed open when almost everyone else was closed

mgr said the state medical folks estimated no more than a week after closing (if they’d taken that route), they’d be broken into a looted to the floor

alcoholism is much more prevalent than most anybody suspects

self medication ramps up during emergencies and disasters

so meds (pharmaceuticals) can be really important but don’t forget self medication for non traditional (undiagnosed) issues

thank goodness for stills

Just a reminder that in Maryland that is a 10 year felony if you have a still without a distillers license. Doesn't matter if it is for personal consumption. If it is for the latter, how they gonna find out? Sure. But it is similar level of penalty to having an unregistered NFA item.

Sooooo....

But homebrewing beer or wine is fairly easy and 100% legal if you aren't selling it. Anything you'd ferment for distilling, you can ferment and just drink (just at a much lower ABV).

But yes, there are a LOT of functional (and plenty of non-functional) alcoholics. The top 10% of alcohol consumers in the use consume on average 73.85 drinks per week. Or 10 a day. That is certainly in to alcoholic territory and addiction levels of consumption. I know it varies, and tolerance goes up and not necessarily addiction weakening as consumption goes up, but typically I think you are talking in the >5-6 drinks a day range is about when you are talking physical addiction.

So more than 10% of Americans are alcoholics. That's a lot of people if they can't score their fix are gonna be hurting. I'd imagine plenty on the lower end of the range would suffer through withdrawal okay, even if the psychological addiction reamained for awhile.

But that does call out that if TEOTWAWKI happened, probably a solid 5%, maybe 10% or so of Americans would shove off pretty quick after running out of booze. The smarter ones would ween themselves off pretty quick knowing what they had on hand was probably going to be it. Probably 15-20% are going to be hurting when they run out, of course with the same caveat of realizing they need to ween themselves off (with a better chance of success and probably a better realization that they are going to need to).

My smug self over here who is only around 10 drinks a week and the ability and supplies to brew a crap ton of beer (I've got malt on hands to brew probably 200-250 gallons) will be stocked nicely for at least 3 or 4 years. Even if I pickup some steam because the danged world is ending.

The bombs dropping everywhere, well I am not sure I am going to grab a fifth and a lawn chair to watch it for the seconds I'd have left, but I'd probably crack a fifth in my underground CMU storage room that has a 4" reinforced concrete slab over it. But then I'd sober up sometime after it was done and probably swear off the drinking for a long time.

 

[Wheaton Hills Sportsman]

I cannot predict how long the next earthquake SHTF will last, but I believe the next plague SHTF will last [Hmm, November 2019 to May 2023, cypher and carry the nought] three and a half years.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

Amateurs study maps...professionals study terrain.

You one very smart man.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

Alcohol, and it’s impending absence, will play a substantial role in any post SHTF world.

 

[beetles]

. . . The top 10% of alcohol consumers in the use consume on average 73.85 drinks per week. Or 10 a day. That is certainly in to alcoholic territory and addiction levels of consumption. I know it varies, and tolerance goes up and not necessarily addiction weakening as consumption goes up, but typically I think you are talking in the >5-6 drinks a day range is about when you are talking physical addiction.

So more than 10% of Americans are alcoholics.

What is your source of that statistic? I would be surprised to find more than 3% of a whole population representative sample that would consume over 5 (12oz 5%ABV beer/6 ox 12%ABV wine/1.5oz 40% distilled spirit) per day. Maybe if you took a sample from E.D. admissions or a V.A. hospital, you would get those numbers, but not the population as a whole. That just isn't believable.

 

[Mark75H]

What is your source of that statistic? I would be surprised to find more than 3% of a whole population representative sample that would consume over 5 (12oz 5%ABV beer/6 ox 12%ABV wine/1.5oz 40% distilled spirit) per day. Maybe if you took a sample from E.D. admissions or a V.A. hospital, you would get those numbers, but not the population as a whole. That just isn't believable.

It is to me. My personal experience says the rate is actually higher. And there are a lot of binge drinkers as well that drink little or none during the week and more than make up for it on the weekends, but of course, no one thinks their behavior is that of an addict

 

[beetles]

The CDC says 1 in 30 adults is alcohol-dependent. That is far fewer than 10% of the population.

 

[Mark75H]

The CDC says 1 in 30 adults is alcohol-dependent. That is far fewer than 10% of the population.

Your math is correct. You are now permently marked as a CDC Believer.

 

[TheOriginalMexicanBob]

You one very smart man.

Just quoting General Bradley.

 

[RFBfromDE]

It is to me. My personal experience says the rate is actually higher. And there are a lot of binge drinkers as well that drink little or none during the week and more than make up for it on the weekends, but of course, no one thinks their behavior is that of an addict

Hey now!

 

[lazarus]

What is your source of that statistic? I would be surprised to find more than 3% of a whole population representative sample that would consume over 5 (12oz 5%ABV beer/6 ox 12%ABV wine/1.5oz 40% distilled spirit) per day. Maybe if you took a sample from E.D. admissions or a V.A. hospital, you would get those numbers, but not the population as a whole. That just isn't believable.

The figures are from Paying the Tab.

Economist who did a study of the costs and benefits of the alcohol industry in the US and looked at actual spending habits of American adults related to alcohol. More accurate than self reported figures to people’s doctors which is what the CDC uses.

Follow the money.