Application progress banter thread

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  • WhiskeyHelps

    Member
    Aug 17, 2022
    226
    Eastern Shore
    I do not understand your formula. Are you saying they're about to slow way down? What is this multiplying by three?

    8/4 to today is 54 days, or about 7 1/2 weeks. If they keep that rate, someone who's accepted today will get their permit in perhaps 8 weeks or so, around mid-November.

    But who knows if they'll speed up or slow down? Perhaps the bulk of the initial rush to apply is winding down, allowing them to start processing more quickly. Or perhaps they'll decide to milk it out...
    He is saying that it’s taking MSP approximately 3 days to approve one acceptance date.. so if some one was accepted today 9/27, that would be 53 days from the current day MSP is approving, which is 8/5… so 53 days multiples by 3 is 159 days till possible approval
     

    Threeband

    The M1 Does My Talking
    MDS Supporter
    Dec 30, 2006
    22,778
    Carroll County
    Are you saying that they've slowed way, way down? Okay, it looks like they have.

    I don't think we can extrapolate any meaningful projections from the incomplete information we have. They'll probably speed up again, especially if there was a big rush which they'll get past at some point.

    If we just extrapolate from "three working days to clear one day of acceptances" then soon they'll be taking over a year to approve permits.

    I suspect they'll pretty much keep it under 90 days at worst.
     
    Last edited:

    Acs

    Junior Member
    Sep 10, 2022
    30
    Hagerstown
    Are you saying that they've slowed way, way down?

    I don't think we can extrapolate any meaningful projections from the incomplete information we have.
    Yes they have slowed due to volume. I think the snap shot represents a good base of what’s occurring. will it take three days every day? Based on the app number climbing compared to the approved number yes they are still seeing a large amount of submittals. It took awhile for the general public to get classes in and submitted
     

    Crazytrain

    Certified Grump
    MDS Supporter
    Jul 8, 2007
    1,133
    Somewhere nearby
    Are you saying that they've slowed way, way down? Okay, it looks like they have.

    I don't think we can extrapolate any meaningful projections from the incomplete information we have. They'll probably speed up again, especially if there was a big rush which they'll get past at some point.

    If we just extrapolate from "three working days to clear one day of acceptances" then soon they'll be taking over a year to approve permits.

    I suspect they'll pretty much keep it under 90 days at worst.
    The spreadsheet isn't being updated anymore, sadly, but if you were to look at it you can clearly see that they are not keeping up with volume. Spreadsheet

    I don't know how they will keep it under 90 days unless the volume of applicants drops off significantly. That doesn't look like it is happening yet.
     

    LuckyShot

    Pissing off Liberals
    Apr 13, 2010
    289
    on 270
    Lets just be honest...3 days is the rule of thumb but lately i've seen 2-2.5 days. Alot of times half way through the third day they've started on the following much like the 8/4s to 8/5s.

    Mondays-tues are the heaviest so far so its safe to say they will be 3. You cant convince me saturday-sunday acceptence is 3 days a piece.
     

    Storm40

    Active Member
    MDS Supporter
    Apr 13, 2009
    1,372
    Harford County
    I mean, in the absence of good, current data, all we have are past observances. That 3day rule of thumb seems to hold true, more or less, throughout my own journey (accepted 8/10). What we have working against us, is that the amount of data going into the tracking thread seems to be slowing down - less people seem to be posting, less people seem to be putting in ALL the significant data, etc. Even though we have a member with 8/8 acceptance and an approval, i'm still counting us as being on 8/5. And I'm counting 3 to 4 days for each day between me and that date - so I'm assuming i have at least another 18 days to go - me being an 8/10er. 5 days times 3.5 = 17.5. I admit I am a bit pessimistic about it, which is why i'm taking the far side of the estimate. I'm happy to be proven wrong.

    now, none of this accounts for any uptick in resources applied to the problem by the msp. but again, we lack any sort of good data from which to draw more accurate conclusions.

    FWIW, I firmly believe that, if applications don't trend downwards or if resources applied don't increase dramatically or if they do not streamline their processes significantly, there will be a point at which the MSP cannot possibly keep up with the tide and WILL go past the 90 days. The system is built for many things, mostly infringing your Rights purposefully, but it is absolutely not built for speed.

    I also fear that anyone caught past 90 days will neither have any real recourse to remedy the issue nor will they survive the coming shenanigans by the gen'l assembly. By which I mean that anyone who hasn't actually had their permit issued. I foresee the MGA coming up with a brand new level of skullduggery and then making anyone still in process follow whatever abominations of rule changes they come up with before proceeding. won't that make a lovely lawsuit?
     

    WhiskeyHelps

    Member
    Aug 17, 2022
    226
    Eastern Shore
    I mean, in the absence of good, current data, all we have are past observances. That 3day rule of thumb seems to hold true, more or less, throughout my own journey (accepted 8/10). What we have working against us, is that the amount of data going into the tracking thread seems to be slowing down - less people seem to be posting, less people seem to be putting in ALL the significant data, etc. Even though we have a member with 8/8 acceptance and an approval, i'm still counting us as being on 8/5. And I'm counting 3 to 4 days for each day between me and that date - so I'm assuming i have at least another 18 days to go - me being an 8/10er. 5 days times 3.5 = 17.5. I admit I am a bit pessimistic about it, which is why i'm taking the far side of the estimate. I'm happy to be proven wrong.

    now, none of this accounts for any uptick in resources applied to the problem by the msp. but again, we lack any sort of good data from which to draw more accurate conclusions.

    FWIW, I firmly believe that, if applications don't trend downwards or if resources applied don't increase dramatically or if they do not streamline their processes significantly, there will be a point at which the MSP cannot possibly keep up with the tide and WILL go past the 90 days. The system is built for many things, mostly infringing your Rights purposefully, but it is absolutely not built for speed.

    I also fear that anyone caught past 90 days will neither have any real recourse to remedy the issue nor will they survive the coming shenanigans by the gen'l assembly. By which I mean that anyone who hasn't actually had their permit issued. I foresee the MGA coming up with a brand new level of skullduggery and then making anyone still in process follow whatever abominations of rule changes they come up with before proceeding. won't that make a lovely lawsuit?
    Well said
     

    Storm40

    Active Member
    MDS Supporter
    Apr 13, 2009
    1,372
    Harford County
    my question is, why the hell do they need to know what i do for a living or even who employs me? It has no bearing on whether I have a right to carry a gun or not.
     

    Blaster229

    God loves you, I don't.
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 14, 2010
    41,308
    Glen Burnie
    my question is, why the hell do they need to know what i do for a living or even who employs me? It has no bearing on whether I have a right to carry a gun or not.
    Well, this was specifically about the 77R for purchasing. But not relevant at all for ownership.
     

    Allen65

    Active Member
    MDS Supporter
    Jun 29, 2013
    5,635
    Anne Arundel County
    my question is, why the hell do they need to know what i do for a living or even who employs me? It has no bearing on whether I have a right to carry a gun or not.
    Like any bureaucracy, the people doing the processing will just keep following existing policy and procedure until someone above them officially changes it. And given the natural inertia of large organizations, nothing likely changes unless someone from outside forces it.
     

    Brychan

    Active Member
    Apr 24, 2009
    7,978
    Baltimore
    The year is 2022, computers have been main stream for decades, paper records have been uploaded mostly for some time. I'm fairly sure the days of needing to go digging through old files for background checks are pretty much a thing of the past.

    So why does it take more than 30 minutes to complete a check of the 14 data bases that MSP checks to approve a permit? I would guess that by now some IT person has found a way to link the data bases for a check.

    So what takes so long? Does anyone have any thoughts?

    Yes I am killing time, I don't even take my mandatory 16 hours of class til the end of next week.
     

    Blaster229

    God loves you, I don't.
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 14, 2010
    41,308
    Glen Burnie
    The year is 2022, computers have been main stream for decades, paper records have been uploaded mostly for some time. I'm fairly sure the days of needing to go digging through old files for background checks are pretty much a thing of the past.

    So why does it take more than 30 minutes to complete a check of the 14 data bases that MSP checks to approve a permit? I would guess that by now some IT person has found a way to link the data bases for a check.

    So what takes so long? Does anyone have any thoughts?

    Yes I am killing time, I don't even take my mandatory 16 hours of class til the end of next week.
    Are there 14 databases? Does anyone really know the amount and what they are?
     

    Blaster229

    God loves you, I don't.
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 14, 2010
    41,308
    Glen Burnie
    That is what I remember reading here, many moons ago. Then again I'm old and the brain maybe slipping.
    Yeah. I dunno. I mean how can there be that many resources that each provide something different than the others. Hell, OPM doesn't use numerous "databases" for clearances.
     

    swinokur

    In a State of Bliss
    Patriot Picket
    Apr 15, 2009
    53,675
    Not in Montgomery any longer
    Are there 14 databases? Does anyone really know the amount and what they are?
    Here is the list used for 77r forms from 2011. I’m sure the HGP checks is similar or the same
     

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    Aug 9, 2022
    109
    Baltimore
    Yeah. I dunno. I mean how can there be that many resources that each provide something different than the others. Hell, OPM doesn't use numerous "databases" for clearances.
    nope, but instead they send out private investigators to interview you, and your references....which is why top clearances take so long to process. do you want them to do that??
     

    Blaster229

    God loves you, I don't.
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 14, 2010
    41,308
    Glen Burnie
    nope, but instead they send out private investigators to interview you, and your references....which is why top clearances take so long to process. do you want them to do that??
    I would be just fine never having a MD permit, since I have LEOSA. I know how clearances work. I am just wondering what ALL the different "databases" are. I mean, how and when whatever number there appear to be, then someone who originally threw a number out, would at least know which ones they were.
     

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