A Bad Bellwether

[MDFF2008]

Texas has seen a 102% increase in particpation in the Democratic primary, while only a tiny fraction of that in the Republican one.

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[Doctor_M]

But how many of the Democrat votes are double counted, from non-citizens, or from the grave?

 

[protegeV]

But how many of the Democrat votes are double counted, from non-citizens, or from the grave?

 

[MDFF2008]

Regardless of that, the fact that Republican participation is only up 16% is pretty pathetic.

 

[danb]

Democrats always vote early, Republicans on election day.

Early voting was up in MD in 2014, lots of early voting for Anthony Brown.

Early voting was up in 2016, lots of early voting for Clinton.

Early voting in fact is an extremely poor predictor of actual turnout. Sometimes early voting simply cannibalizes election day turnout. Also, sometimes these early voting stories are pushed by Democrats to depress Republican turnout ("hey no need to vote we already won").

 

[copasetic]

hoping you are right

 

[davsco]

yeah it's not early voting that counts, it's total voting.

any stats on what % of registered dems and repubs have actually voted in the most recent nat'l and state elections? every single vote counts these days and every single repub needs to get out and vote every time.

 

[copasetic]

I think the Republicans in states like Tx are somewhat complacent... maybe akin to how some Dems were during the last elections... they are so sure of the outcome that they don't bother coming out. I agree margins are getting closer and closer and there is no room for complacency.

 

[danb]

Also: this is primaries. generally only activists vote in primaries. Incumbents generally run unopposed or with weak opposition. If most of the incumbents are republicans, primary turnout for republicans would be naturally smaller.

 

[John from MD]

How many of those are illegal voters.

 

[rambling_one]

How many of those are illegal voters.

This matters only IF those votes are counted. Now granted, that's a distinct possibility.

 

[EL1227]

Wait a minute ...

Shades of the 2016 Presidential election ?

Early Voting Could Point to Hillary Clinton Victory Well Before Nov. 8

Reporting on early voting is all designed to suppress voter turnout ...

 

[Dave Taylor]

Some folks will believe anything that has a "Meet The Press" logo on it.

 

[frogman68]

look at the numbers

Saw today it was 185k democrats and 120k Repubulican.
just like in MD one party is servely ahead so they won't use the real numbers as that won't look as good as this

 

[danb]

Here are the real numbers from the Texas primary:

https://ballotpedia.org/Beto_O'Rourke

Dem total votes: 1,036,467

Rep total votes: 1,540,890

Ted Cruz total votes: 1,315,146

So in primary where Cruz had weak opposition, he still got 1.3 million votes. More than all the Dem votes cast.

Perhaps Dem primary turnout was up 106%, but it was up off a really low number. If everyone in the primary goes to the polls again (usually primary voters are activists and the most likely to vote) - and no one else - Cruz wins by a lot.

Also, incidentally, in the 2012 runoff primary (a presidential year), only 1,111,938 republicans voted. https://ballotpedia.org/Ted_Cruz#2012. In the inital jungle primary, 1,406,648 people voted. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Texas,_2012#Results_3

overall, 1.5 million people in a non-presidential year with weak opposition compared to 1.4 mil in a presidential year is pretty good.

 

[Defense Rifle]

That image is misleading.

Republicans set a new high record in the Texas GOP primary. Democratic turnout in Texas also up, but GOP turnout was an all new high record.

 

[Mr. Ed]

But how many of the Democrat votes are double counted, from non-citizens, or from the grave?

How many of those are illegal voters.

And how many had to ask for a ballot in Espanol?

 

[johnkorz]

As someone who grew up in Texas and was forced to study Texas Government at Texas as a graduation requirement, Texas before Reagan was always always made up of a large number of conservative democratic voters. This is changing in cities such as Austin, with all of the Dem's coming in from other northern states. However, out is cowboy country (the hill country) you can bet Texas will be red for the upcoming years. However, the large influx of dems may eventually change that along with the millions of illegals that live there.