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Old February 18th, 2021, 05:40 PM #51
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Originally Posted by lazarus View Post
Oh, yeah, it COULD be. However, there is no genetic evidence in the virus itself that it is. At most there could have been forced evolution of it from an extant coronavirus. There is zero evidence of any splicing to create it.

Occam's razor though. We've know of SARS and MERS. SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 have significant genetic similarities and appear to have originated from the same progenitor virus not too long ago before diverging. Scientists have been warning for a lonnngggggg time now that we've been on borrowed time before a major new respiratory virus emerged.

China is going to play cover up because it is what they do. They have an authoritarian government that must keep their populace pacified, which means never losing face. They must be infallible. So they can't take blame for anything. They won't admit to incompetence so they'll cover up the best they can and then spread claims that really everyone should be looking at the US because it probably was a US created virus that leaked from a US lab (and somehow appeared in China).

Bold claims take bold evidence and there is no real evidence that the virus is engineered and plenty of evidence that it is naturally occurring.
I don't see why Occam's razor suggests that it is naturally occurring when it cropped up in a city where there is a heavily secured lab that studies Coronaviruses. A lab leak does not necessarily mean that it was modified, nor does it necessarily mean that it was intended to be a bio-weapon, nor purposefully leaked. It could be any of those things and we will likely never know. I do not know nearly enough about biology to debate how the virus is genetically composed so I will not attempt to go down that wormhole. If that is your area of expertise, I'd be curious to hear an argument. I have not seen scientific data making claims to have evidence showing that it was not made in a lab. I have seen an alleged escaped Chinese virologist who claimed she has scientific evidence that it was made in a lab, first link below. Again, I will not get into a biologically rooted argument so I don't know what to believe here. My point in bringing that up is that I do not think either argument is really conclusive and I'm skeptical of both as much as this whole thing has been politicized.

The WHO study on the origins of the virus were inconclusive. Though they stated that they think it came from the wet market, none of the meat they tested showed traces of the virus. It seems odd to me that they continue to push that theory with, as you state, zero hard evidence. Another part of that study that should raise some level of concern is that the US representative conducting the study is Peter Daszak. He is the president of a company that conducts gain-of-function research on these types of viruses. This type of research is controversial as to whether it is ethical and poses more danger than it insulates risk. He has government grants all over the world to study viruses in high security labs. In some ways, that makes him a perfect person to conduct an investigation. In others, it makes him tremendously compromised in terms of conflict of interest. He has dedicated much of his life's work to this type of research. Would he want to produce findings that show that research of this type is dangerous and caused a global pandemic? What incentive structures are in place for him? I think it's worth asking. 2nd and 3rd link below show a summary of who he is and a reference to one of his cited papers (from 2013) where he was studying bat coronaviruses. His paper is also available as a link in the citations of the article.

None of this is direct evidence, sure. Bold claims do take bold evidence. Why is the claim that it disseminated from a wet market in Wuhan less bold than it coming out of the lab down the street that is known to contain these types of things? I take significant issue with the lab hypothesis being pushed out of the general discussion immediately. It is not controversial to state that it came from a wet market but it is controversial to state that leaking from a lab is a valid idea worth exploring. I just think the whole thing deserves a high level of skepticism and is a travesty to our public discourse that the lab leak idea has been pushed, from the beginning, as a "conspiracy theory". The fact that everyone has been proclaiming that it is a natural virus from a wet market is highly alarming, IMO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J4aEcuEGWs

https://www.organicconsumers.org/blo...virus-research

Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research

Last edited by Jub; February 18th, 2021 at 07:26 PM.
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Old February 18th, 2021, 07:09 PM #52
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Originally Posted by 28Shooter View Post
"Common Sense Gun Control", "Social Justice", "For the Children", "Racism', and "White Privilege" are all now just Liberal dog whistles for when they have no facts, no evidence, and no substance to bring to a discussion of an issue.
Exactly. And nothing is done about all the illegal guns used by all the animals in every democratic run slum across the country. Just easier to go after law abiding citizens. Unfortunately I will be another illegal gun owner when and if these demented laws come in effect.
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Old February 19th, 2021, 10:55 AM #53
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I don't see why Occam's razor suggests that it is naturally occurring when it cropped up in a city where there is a heavily secured lab that studies Coronaviruses. A lab leak does not necessarily mean that it was modified, nor does it necessarily mean that it was intended to be a bio-weapon, nor purposefully leaked. It could be any of those things and we will likely never know. I do not know nearly enough about biology to debate how the virus is genetically composed so I will not attempt to go down that wormhole. If that is your area of expertise, I'd be curious to hear an argument. I have not seen scientific data making claims to have evidence showing that it was not made in a lab. I have seen an alleged escaped Chinese virologist who claimed she has scientific evidence that it was made in a lab, first link below. Again, I will not get into a biologically rooted argument so I don't know what to believe here. My point in bringing that up is that I do not think either argument is really conclusive and I'm skeptical of both as much as this whole thing has been politicized.

The WHO study on the origins of the virus were inconclusive. Though they stated that they think it came from the wet market, none of the meat they tested showed traces of the virus. It seems odd to me that they continue to push that theory with, as you state, zero hard evidence. Another part of that study that should raise some level of concern is that the US representative conducting the study is Peter Daszak. He is the president of a company that conducts gain-of-function research on these types of viruses. This type of research is controversial as to whether it is ethical and poses more danger than it insulates risk. He has government grants all over the world to study viruses in high security labs. In some ways, that makes him a perfect person to conduct an investigation. In others, it makes him tremendously compromised in terms of conflict of interest. He has dedicated much of his life's work to this type of research. Would he want to produce findings that show that research of this type is dangerous and caused a global pandemic? What incentive structures are in place for him? I think it's worth asking. 2nd and 3rd link below show a summary of who he is and a reference to one of his cited papers (from 2013) where he was studying bat coronaviruses. His paper is also available as a link in the citations of the article.

None of this is direct evidence, sure. Bold claims do take bold evidence. Why is the claim that it disseminated from a wet market in Wuhan less bold than it coming out of the lab down the street that is known to contain these types of things? I take significant issue with the lab hypothesis being pushed out of the general discussion immediately. It is not controversial to state that it came from a wet market but it is controversial to state that leaking from a lab is a valid idea worth exploring. I just think the whole thing deserves a high level of skepticism and is a travesty to our public discourse that the lab leak idea has been pushed, from the beginning, as a "conspiracy theory". The fact that everyone has been proclaiming that it is a natural virus from a wet market is highly alarming, IMO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J4aEcuEGWs

https://www.organicconsumers.org/blo...virus-research

Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research
My point is "from a lab" accidental release is possible, but unlikely. Less likely than zoonotic transmission. Accidental lab releases happen way more often than we'd really like. But it is still rare considering how many labs there are. And lab releases from BSL-4 labs is extraordinarily rare (and I am not aware of any contagious release from one ever).

So we'd have an exceedingly rare event, from a previously unknown virus that has no evidence it has been tinkered with. That sure isn't impossible, but it is improbable. I don't think that should be dismissed out of hand. But it isn't something that is likely to be provable. Chinese government isn't going to provide the necessary access or evidence to prove that. They've already withheld information in the investigation. I don't view that is trying to hide it came from a lab. They'd do it anyway. That is how authoritarian governments work. They can't look bad. Incompetent response initially looks bad. So you hide and obscure and then you point fingers overseas.

Notice how they are claiming maybe it came from a US lab? Or failing that, maybe it came in to Wuhan on frozen/packaged foods. Probably came from some other country in to China. See, not our fault. Ignore our response no matter how it got here.
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Old February 19th, 2021, 12:25 PM #54
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We need to use their own dog whistle against them.

Yes, gun control is racist. It often affects the populations that need access to firearms most (poor, those who cannot physically defend themselves, etc).

Therefore we must eliminate this racism by eliminating the racist gun control laws.

Ie appeal to their emotional side.

Lord knows logic has no effect.

Far as no R’s in the senate voting for gun control, I count 7.

The same seven that voted for impeachment...
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Old February 19th, 2021, 12:37 PM #55
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Originally Posted by lazarus View Post
My point is "from a lab" accidental release is possible, but unlikely. Less likely than zoonotic transmission. Accidental lab releases happen way more often than we'd really like. But it is still rare considering how many labs there are. And lab releases from BSL-4 labs is extraordinarily rare (and I am not aware of any contagious release from one ever).

So we'd have an exceedingly rare event, from a previously unknown virus that has no evidence it has been tinkered with. That sure isn't impossible, but it is improbable. I don't think that should be dismissed out of hand. But it isn't something that is likely to be provable. Chinese government isn't going to provide the necessary access or evidence to prove that. They've already withheld information in the investigation. I don't view that is trying to hide it came from a lab. They'd do it anyway. That is how authoritarian governments work. They can't look bad. Incompetent response initially looks bad. So you hide and obscure and then you point fingers overseas.

Notice how they are claiming maybe it came from a US lab? Or failing that, maybe it came in to Wuhan on frozen/packaged foods. Probably came from some other country in to China. See, not our fault. Ignore our response no matter how it got here.
I think we mostly agree here except on the theoretical probabilities of lab leak vs. naturally occurring. My main expression is that there is enough circumstantial evidence that either is a totally reasonable belief. For the last year, the media apparatus and big tech have been labeling anything stating lab leak as a "conspiracy theory". They have labeled this a part of their campaign to fight "disinformation" and have zealots that shout down anyone who brings up the possibility of a lab leak. The zealots are totally re-assured that they are on the side of science. That is terrifying to me and I want to go back to reality and a culture where ideas are free to be bounced around. Then there's the reality czar....

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Originally Posted by 28Shooter View Post
"Common Sense Gun Control", "Social Justice", "For the Children", "Racism', and "White Privilege" are all now just Liberal dog whistles for when they have no facts, no evidence, and no substance to bring to a discussion of an issue.
The left is winning the information war and their victory is rooted in their control of the language and culture that re-enforces it. The right needs to start taking notes and attempting to shut down these games. Identity politics needs to die before it takes everyone down with it. I don't think trying to win an argument that the left frames is going to work. Their framing needs to be dismantled because it is a toxic ideology no matter who is applying it.

As for the OP, "Common Sense Gun Control" is another language based cudgel to beat people into submission with. Unless someone is a 2A activist, most would just agree with "Common Sense Gun Control". Similarly, the term "Assault Rifle" has been weaponized towards a certain look. The good and bad news is that these people clearly know very little about firearms. The good part of that is that they are pretty ineffectual when it comes to writing their own legislation. If they ban 5.56 based AR-15's, there are plenty of other options that fulfill a very similar role. Magazine capacity and similar fundamentals are a little bit of a different story.
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Old February 19th, 2021, 02:44 PM #56
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We need to use their own dog whistle against them.

Yes, gun control is racist. It often affects the populations that need access to firearms most (poor, those who cannot physically defend themselves, etc)...
How does one do that when all the means of mass communication are censored and sealed? And how to make Joe Sixpack even care?

Serious questions. And until there is a practical, viable answer we will see NO progress.
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Old February 19th, 2021, 02:49 PM #57
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You/we won't ever win a conversation with them and get to the next part unless there is a concession from our side. This is how it has always worked in regards to gun laws.

I'm at the point where I don't care anymore and they can do whatever they want and at some point there will be enough people to tell them to f off.


Let me give an example. They put up a bill. We argue about what parts of it make it bad. They make a few changes and say, look, we removed some of the parts you did not like. Then it gets passed. Then the cycle repeats itself. You can't win the game that is being played.
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Old February 19th, 2021, 03:23 PM #58
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Control is a Reaction to Fear – Democrats Work on Plan For Big Tech to Shut Down Dissent
https://theconservativetreehouse.com...-down-dissent/
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An interesting article within Reuters points out how the Democrats in congress are working with the White House to craft legislation to make “social media companies accountable for the spread of disinformation.” Or put another way…. The Democrats are attempting to eliminate any ability of those who disagree with them; or worse yet, would outline their corrupt endeavors.

Ultimately this level of control is a reaction to fear. So the logical question is: what exactly are they fearful of? Perhaps the answer is in alignment with the reason Democrats have surrounded the capital with military guards, fence and barbed-wire...
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Old February 19th, 2021, 03:55 PM #59
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Originally Posted by lazarus View Post
My point is "from a lab" accidental release is possible, but unlikely. Less likely than zoonotic transmission. Accidental lab releases happen way more often than we'd really like. But it is still rare considering how many labs there are. And lab releases from BSL-4 labs is extraordinarily rare (and I am not aware of any contagious release from one ever).

So we'd have an exceedingly rare event, from a previously unknown virus that has no evidence it has been tinkered with. That sure isn't impossible, but it is improbable. I don't think that should be dismissed out of hand. But it isn't something that is likely to be provable. Chinese government isn't going to provide the necessary access or evidence to prove that. They've already withheld information in the investigation. I don't view that is trying to hide it came from a lab. They'd do it anyway. That is how authoritarian governments work. They can't look bad. Incompetent response initially looks bad. So you hide and obscure and then you point fingers overseas.

Notice how they are claiming maybe it came from a US lab? Or failing that, maybe it came in to Wuhan on frozen/packaged foods. Probably came from some other country in to China. See, not our fault. Ignore our response no matter how it got here.
Scientific American, a source that has allied itself with the fancies of the Left in recent years, published an article noting some 395 "potential release events" from US gvernment labs between 2003 and 2009. So much for your awareness of "exceedingly rare events".
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...r-seven-years/

As regards "contagious releases" how about 80 cases of smallpos in UK.
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Smallpox releases in Great Britain. Eradication of natural smallpox transmission made the prospect of reintroduction of the virus intolerable. This risk was clearly demonstrated in the United Kingdom. From 1963-78 the U.K. saw only four cases of smallpox (with no deaths) occurred that were imported by travelers from areas where smallpox was endemic. During this same period at least 80 cases and three deaths resulted from three separate escapes from two different accredited smallpox laboratories.
Sourced from https://nationalpost.com/news/a-brie...-a-lab-mistake

Whether or not it was deliberate, there are thousands of wet markets throughout Chine; what are the odds that favor the Wuhan wet market over the Wuhan virus research lab?

And not to put too fine a point on it, even your post tacitly admits that the Chinese government will lie to cover any errors or unpleasant facts.
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Disclaimer: “No criminals will be harmed in the passage of these gun control bills.”
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Old February 19th, 2021, 04:23 PM #60
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