Ammo price coming down

If you can find it cheap buy it, I think the glut is just temporary.

Ammo Jon said:

If you can find it cheap buy it, I think the glut is just temporary.

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Fascinating take. Can you elaborate on why only temp?

One think I can think of is that supply of the actual guns is starting to loosen up. In the dealer channels I've been seeing lots of Savage, Ruger, Bushmaster, FN (509 series), Sig (P365 series), S&W. Still Glocks, HKs and the higher end Sig products still not being promoted in the channel, although stores seem to get the Glocks at least. A benchmark gun, the Daniel Defense PDW4 in 300 BO 7" as pistol is now plentiful out there, can be had below msrp now. That was pretty hot during the peak crazy.

So maybe people start buying guns now that they can get what they want. But how much more gun buying can be done? People have been buying like crazy for over a year.

CMOS said:

Fascinating take. Can you elaborate on why only temp?

One think I can think of is that supply of the actual guns is starting to loosen up. In the dealer channels I've been seeing lots of Savage, Ruger, Bushmaster, FN (509 series), Sig (P365 series), S&W. Still Glocks, HKs and the higher end Sig products still not being promoted in the channel, although stores seem to get the Glocks at least. A benchmark gun, the Daniel Defense PDW4 in 300 BO 7" as pistol is now plentiful out there, can be had below msrp now. That was pretty hot during the peak crazy.

So maybe people start buying guns now that they can get what they want. But how much more gun buying can be done? People have been buying like crazy for over a year.

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There’s a lot of unfulfilled contracts for LE agencies, a lot have cut back on training/qualifications. I think the glut of inventory reflects a normal summer slowdown in shooting as people transition to other activities.

With this administration we are one mass shooting, executive order, law suit against manufacturers, etc from the shit hitting the fan.

FINALLY snagged some Hornady 140gr 6.5 Creedmoor today from PSA. $2 per round but still $1-2 less per round than I have seen it elsewhere for the last 9 months. Sold out pretty quick. Bought more than I should have but needed some and it has been so rarely available I couldn’t pass it up.


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Prices are still high

As of today, $50/box of 50 9mm JHP and $35/box of 50 for FMJ in Monkey County. Prices are still too high for me. I'm used to prices half of that so I'll keep waiting.

Ammo Jon said:

There’s a lot of unfulfilled contracts for LE agencies, a lot have cut back on training/qualifications. I think the glut of inventory reflects a normal summer slowdown in shooting as people transition to other activities.

With this administration we are one mass shooting, executive order, law suit against manufacturers, etc from the shit hitting the fan.

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Not really a slow down some of the Government ranges also service local LEO departments under contracts. I know of several still go through 250,000 about rounds per month. They get tractor trailers full of ammo monthly. The shortage of ammo parallels the great toilet paper shortage. Hording, and impulsive buying are the root cause of all the shortages. Current contracts with LEO agencies, the US gov and foreign GOVs all take priority. Although there is no real data on how many people actually reload their own ammo. I have seen many now that do reload that never had reloaded in the past.

If Biden has his way, one of the new bills on the docket will require Banks and Businesses to report all purchases over $600.00 to the government. This is no Joke the fight has already begun.

Harrys said:

If Biden has his way, one of the new bills on the docket will require Banks and Businesses to report all purchases over $600.00 to the government. This is no Joke the fight has already begun.

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Not quite. IIRC in the bill it's all transactions with a particular financial institution once you reach a $600 yearly threshold.

Ammo Jon said:

There’s a lot of unfulfilled contracts for LE agencies, a lot have cut back on training/qualifications. I think the glut of inventory reflects a normal summer slowdown in shooting as people transition to other activities.

With this administration we are one mass shooting, executive order, law suit against manufacturers, etc from the shit hitting the fan.

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agreed.

And here we go….

Well that sucks

sundazes said:

Well that sucks

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Big time

Eh . 5, 10 , 15% on MSRP isn't bad ,if you can actually get it for that , instead of. Panic influenced Market Rates like we have been .

Ammo Jon said:

And here we go….

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John, was this sent to you?
If so, did you receive your “ finalized price list”, by the 24th of last month?

Just curious.

Brickman301 said:

John, was this sent to you?
If so, did you receive your “ finalized price list”, by the 24th of last month?

Just curious.

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It was shared with me.

Biggfoot44 said:

Eh . 5, 10 , 15% on MSRP isn't bad ,if you can actually get it for that , instead of. Panic influenced Market Rates like we have been .

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My concern with panic buying is once the large portion of the shooting community, whom turned to other activities during the summer, go to buy their cheap 7.62 and realizes prices are up 3x-4x it’s going to cause them to panic buy their other calibers as well.

And here I was hoping that ammo prices would stabilize in the next 6-8 months. Guess there goes that idea!

StanleyJobson said:

And here I was hoping that ammo prices would stabilize in the next 6-8 months. Guess there goes that idea!

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They sort of have, they just haven't come down a lot. Prices, other than on anything x39, are down a fair amount from 6 months or a year ago. Without napkin math, down maybe 20-40% depending on the caliber. That is still up a ton from pre-pandemic prices of course.

But companies have steadily been pricing in materials cost increases that keep just going up and up, as well as production cost increases (higher pay, but more important to their costs, all of the overtime shifts they've been running to keep up with sky high demand). Of course I'd be shocked if manufacturers haven't been pricing in a little more profit margin in there too.

But just looking at commodity prices, copper was sitting at about $2.30 a pound right as the pandemic started. Back in February of this year it was at $3.50 a pound. It is at $4.29 a pound now (which is down a little from a May high of $4.79 a pound). Lead was at $1582 a ton right before the pandemic. Back this past winter it was ~$2080 a ton. It hit a high of $2517 in August and has since plummeted to $2189 a ton today.

So a lot of the major components/cost structure of making ammunition is easily 40% to more than 100% higher today than it was before the pandemic.

Now raw materials costs are starting to trend in the right direction, but manufacturing companies usually are not pricing in raw materials costs on a week by week basis. So Federal is looking at the price over the last year and likely the price trends and pricing in what it had cost them the last year and likely what they think it'll be moving forward. So even if prices have relaxed in the last couple of months, their pricing decisions were made based on what they saw a couple of months ago (they had announced this a few weeks ago).

The good news is, if trends continue, there is a decent chance manufacturers actually will relax pricing a little next year when they come up with their cost lists.

PS Interestingly lead had hit a high of $2800 a ton back in 2018. So you have to look at the combination of factors. Lead represents somewhere around $20 of cost per 1000 case of 115gr 9mm at the 2018 high. And copper and zinc represents about $40 per 1000 round case of 115gr 9mm (jacketing and case).