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Old February 4th, 2018, 06:18 PM #21
rascal rascal is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schipperke View Post
You have a cite for that?

Sure: http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/re...ct-of-columbia

Proportion of Adults Living in a Home With a Gun
ChartIn the District of Columbia, the percentage of adults living in a household with a firearm is reported to be

2002: 5.2%1
2001: 3.8%2
I had a friend at GSS a few years back and though they don't publish the full state level one, their internals show DC gun ownership to be under 3%. The gun control researchers call GSS the "gold standard." Everyone knows the number of gun owners is going up, and simply more people own guns for self defense, which is inherent private, compared to hunting, and more people take training that says tell no stranger. so of course self reported gun ownership is declining. I would not tell some pimple faced kid knocking on my door with a form that has my address on it (GSS method) and recording whether there is a gun at home!

GSS: 30% and falling the past 20 years
Gallup (more anonymity confidences): 38% and falling the past 20 years
NRA approvals: 58% and rising the past 20 years
Persons who say owning a gun at home makes their family safer Gallup: 63% and rising the past 20 years

Those last two are likely the gun ownership rates. On confidential matters those kind of indirect questions are proven by the science to be more accurate than direct questions.


You have to realize how this works, instead of normal science, the gun control academics work from their needed results (proving for example that "less Americans own guns", "more guns = more crime", "more guns = more murder", more guns = more suicide) and choose the ownership rate from whatever rate estimating method supports their thesis.

so for suicide studies they pick a low number for ownership, since DC has low suicide. for homicide they pick a high number of gun ownership since DC has high homicide.
For race distribution they pick GSS because African Americans generally refuse GSS questions more often, so as to "prove" that whites own guns ate 2.3 times the rate.

For "gun violence" they actually take the CDC "risk assessment" number on gun violence events and extrapolate that to estimate gun ownership rates by state --which is the most mendacious self fulfilling idiocy.
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Old February 5th, 2018, 06:33 PM #22
Schipperke Schipperke is offline
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Why do even care about figures in 2001-2 ? DC in 1976 prohibited handgun purchase, that was what the Heller case overturned in 2008. I don't even know if people in DC could buy long guns successfully.
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Old February 9th, 2018, 06:26 AM #23
rascal rascal is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schipperke View Post
Why do even care about figures in 2001-2 ? DC in 1976 prohibited handgun purchase, that was what the Heller case overturned in 2008. I don't even know if people in DC could buy long guns successfully.
Heller has produced under 5,000 legal civilian gun owners in DC (about 4,000 persons issued registrations in total since 2008. This this is trivial compared to the ~165,000 illegal owners

There is zero evidence (and zero reason why) the number of illegal gun owners changed substantially. There is no change in trend on seizures nor a change in penalties that would have shown or driven any change in illegal gun ownership rates either. Unless you are going to contend that illegal gun ownership went up to 170,000 out of 670,000, because of Heller. why would that happen?

Again the "peer reviewed science" shows that DC has 4% gun ownership, the "gold standard" survey in 2015 shows it has 3% -- and the peer reviewed science also shows it has 25.9%.

The point is; that range: an order of magnitude range between 3% and 30% -- shows the deep problems with the estimation methods.
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Old February 9th, 2018, 10:42 AM #24
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K-Romulus K-Romulus is offline
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Man, rascal is a guy who speaks my language. Thanks for the info! I love learning how anti-gunowner researchers cook the books - keeping tabs on the ways is a full time hobby.


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