SAF SUES IN MARYLAND OVER HANDGUN PERMIT DENIAL UPDATED 3-5-12

esqappellate · Jun 4, 2012

krucam said:
99 & 44/100%

Mark, you are much more confident on that score than I am. The chances that the court will grant cert in this or a similar case turn heavily, imho, on whether there is a direct conflict among the circuits. No conflict, then likely,no cert.

Merlin · Jun 4, 2012

swinokur said:
huh?

Sorry, trying to do to much all at once.

What I meant to ask;

After the appeal with the 4th is over, is there a procedure the looser would have to do or papers that has to be filed to be on a list that the SC selects cases to hear?

Merlin · Jun 4, 2012

esqappellate said:
Mark, you are much more confident on that score than I am. The chances that the court will grant cert in this or a similar case turn heavily, imho, on whether there is a direct conflict among the circuits. No conflict, then likely,no cert.

So is that to say if all three judges vote the same way, no way will it go the the SC. but if two of the judges vote one way and the 3rd judge votes the other way there is a chance the case could go to the SC?

esqappellate · Jun 4, 2012

Merlin said:
I can't help but think that Legg has already made his mind up long before all of these briefs. Briefs that did not do anything but restate the same, or more of the same that was talked about during the court case. I think all of this waiting and preparation on Legg's part now is him putting together his well thought out official ruling after giving both parties a chance to bring something new to the table that supported their side.

And/or he is also taking into account things like will the ya or na help or harm his future. When Judge Legg is at a dinner party with his peers, do you think he is hearing, "Way to go, we are with you on this one". Or do you think his peers are saying, "What are you nuts, what were you thinking"?

No way. His "peers" are other judges and the last thing these judges talk about at social occasions are their cases or seek to influence another judge informally. Not done. It would be insulting.

swinokur · Jun 4, 2012

Merlin said:
Sorry, trying to do to much all at once.

What I meant to ask;

After the appeal with the 4th is over, is there a procedure the looser would have to do or papers that has to be filed to be on a list that the SC selects cases to hear?

petition for Cerriorari. That's it

Merlin · Jun 4, 2012

esqappellate said:
No way. His "peers" are other judges and the last thing these judges talk about at social occasions are their cases or seek to influence another judge informally. Not done. It would be insulting.

Well in some way I'm glad to hear that.

Merlin · Jun 4, 2012

swinokur said:
petition for Cerriorari. That's it

If the SAF looses do you think they will push it that far?

swinokur · Jun 4, 2012

Merlin said:
So is that to say if all three judges vote the same way, no way will it go the the SC. but if two of the judges vote one way and the 3rd judge votes the other way there is a chance the case could go to the SC?

It has no bearing. Cert is either granted or it isn't. Circuit judge voting has no bearing.

swinokur · Jun 4, 2012

IMO they will but SCOTUS decides, not SAF or MD

krucam · Jun 4, 2012

Merlin said:
But is there a process the looser that would like the SC to consider the case has to do to be on some list the SC selects from?

Anyone, either side, can Petition the Court. Pay your $400 with the clerk and move on.

The reality is that only 3-5% of all Petitions get granted Cert. There is no guarantee and unless it is a super high visibility case (Affordable Care Act) or you're a death row inmate seeking a commute on your sentence (habeus), the odds are small.

Only 75 merit cases were granted this term, from thousands of petitions, for reference.

esqappellate · Jun 4, 2012

Merlin said:
So is that to say if all three judges vote the same way, no way will it go the the SC. but if two of the judges vote one way and the 3rd judge votes the other way there is a chance the case could go to the SC?

If there is a dissent, that is an invitation for seeking rehearing en banc before the whole CA4. Dissents are sometimes crafted to appeal to an en banc court and/or the SCT, sometimes not, but the SCT doesn't necessarily care -- it is still only one circuit. En banc criteria are applied strictly -- you need an intracircuit split, an intercircuit split or an issue of extraordinary importance, in that order of importance in terms of the likelihood of getting en banc review. The SCT doesn't care about intracircuit splits, just intercircuit splits and issues of extraordinary importance. BTW, *everyone* claims that their case presents an issue of extraordinary importance...... The Court usually just goes: "Yawn."

dlmcbm · Jun 4, 2012

Out of curiosity how long was it from closing statements to Judge Legg's decision on the case(March 5th)?

krucam · Jun 4, 2012

esqappellate said:
Mark, you are much more confident on that score than I am. The chances that the court will grant cert in this or a similar case turn heavily, imho, on whether there is a direct conflict among the circuits. No conflict, then likely,no cert.

I'm cautiously optimistic of a favorable ruling here and/or in CA7. CA1/CA2/CA3/CA9...not so much.

Patrick will vouch that I love a little side betting as well. I should also warn I'm optimistic and have so far lost most bets... :innocent0

Inigoes · Jun 4, 2012

krucam said:
I should also warn I'm optimistic and have so far lost most bets...

You should go "double or nothing", you will break even sooner or later

esqappellate · Jun 4, 2012

krucam said:
I'm cautiously optimistic of a favorable ruling here and/or in CA7. CA1/CA2/CA3/CA9...not so much.

Patrick will vouch that I love a little side betting as well. I should also warn I'm optimistic and have so far lost most bets...

Actually, that is pretty much my assessment as well. My guess is that the CA7 will be the first out of the gate with an actual decision on the issue. Moore is perfect for that. That could influence the other circuits substantially if we get a really good opinion. I have little faith in the CA2 or the CA3. I am a bit more optimistic for the CA1.

esqappellate · Jun 4, 2012

dlmcbm said:
Out of curiosity how long was it from closing statements to Judge Legg's decision on the case(March 5th)?

IIRC, argument on the motions for SJ was July 21, 2011, decision on March 2, 2012.

krucam · Jun 4, 2012

esqappellate said:
Actually, that is pretty much my assessment as well. My guess is that the CA7 will be the first out of the gate with an actual decision on the issue. Moore is perfect for that. That could influence the other circuits substantially if we get a really good opinion. I have little faith in the CA2 or the CA3. I am a bit more optimistic for the CA1.

I forgot to mention our friend Gray and his case in Denver (CA10). I'd be optimistic on this one as well if the Court could figure out the story, as they seem confused by it all. I also feel that once CA10 figures out the story, they'll just remand back to CO District to try again.

I hope I'm wrong...

esqappellate · Jun 4, 2012

krucam said:
I forgot to mention our friend Gray and his case in Denver (CA10). I'd be optimistic on this one as well if the Court could figure out the story, as they seem confused by it all. I also feel that once CA10 figures out the story, they'll just remand back to CO District to try again.

I hope I'm wrong...

No, you are right. I listened to the tape 3 times. It was depressing.

Patrick · Jun 4, 2012

krucam said:
I'm cautiously optimistic of a favorable ruling here and/or in CA7. CA1/CA2/CA3/CA9...not so much.

Patrick will vouch that I love a little side betting as well. I should also warn I'm optimistic and have so far lost most bets...

He is, and that's why we like him. That, and the last time he lost he had to buy me dinner. I say, "Keep up the good work!"

Actually, that is pretty much my assessment as well. My guess is that the CA7 will be the first out of the gate with an actual decision on the issue. Moore is perfect for that. That could influence the other circuits substantially if we get a really good opinion. I have little faith in the CA2 or the CA3. I am a bit more optimistic for the CA1.

CA1/Hightower drew a bad panel. Three Dem appointees including one recent Obama appointee. Prospects dimmed when it was announced.

CA7 at least has some jurisprudence, as does CA4. Each crafted a pro-right set of guidelines that somewhat locks in certain philosophies that should hold barring an en banc review of some sort.

I'm still waiting for word from a little closer to home.

fightinbluhen51 · Jun 4, 2012

Patrick said:
I'm still waiting for word from a little closer to home.

Stop speaking in code!

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