Wrenn PI Granted (DC Shall Issue)

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    R

    rascal

    Ultimate Member
    Feb 15, 2013
    1,253
    jbrown50 said:
    Their MO is bonehead and I'm hoping they do another. It betters the chance of this going nationwide. I don't think Roberts and Alito are going to vote for cert unless they get a favorable read on Kennedy and the four liberals think he's too much of a "conservative" to trust him on guns.
    Click to expand...

    I think the fact that peruta was denied means Kennedy may have hinted he would vote against whoever forced cert. There was at that point not two outcomes, ending may issue or not, but a third -- leaving it ambiguous. But I think from the complaints from Thomas after that Kennedy's threat was more tilted against shall issue.
    The issue is now different now though with it being more of a circuit split which is more compelling in terms of cert.
     
    P

    Peaceful John

    Active Member
    May 31, 2011
    239
    I think EsqAppellate has stated that orals must be completed by mid-Jan 2018 to expect a decision by the following June. It surely won't take much for our side to postpone orals past that date.

    That will move Wrenn into the 2018 session. If J. Kennedy retires (as is expected) or J. Ginsberg dies (as is hoped), things will probably go quite well for us in the 2018-2019 sitting.

    I'm still only cautiously optimistic, but more than I've been previously.
     
    S

    swamplynx

    Active Member
    MDS Supporter
    Jul 28, 2014
    678
    DC
    rascal said:
    Best possible outcome for gun control lobby is to get this in, and to do so this term. Best likely outcomes for second amendment supporters is if this is delayed to 18-19.
    Click to expand...

    ...or cert denied, take the win with DC, and live to fight another day in a future SCOTUS +one more Trump appointment (potentially Norman).
     
    K

    Kharn

    Ultimate Member
    Mar 9, 2008
    3,580
    Hazzard County
    Peaceful John said:
    I think EsqAppellate has stated that orals must be completed by mid-Jan 2018 to expect a decision by the following June. It surely won't take much for our side to postpone orals past that date.

    That will move Wrenn into the 2018 session. If J. Kennedy retires (as is expected) or J. Ginsberg dies (as is hoped), things will probably go quite well for us in the 2018-2019 sitting.

    I'm still only cautiously optimistic, but more than I've been previously.
    Click to expand...
    There are argument days as late as 25 April 2018 that will result in a ruling in June 2018.

    Here's the October 2017 term calendar
     
    C

    CurlyDave

    Member
    May 29, 2015
    47
    Oregon
    If this is true, it probably means that DC felt they had little chance of winning and a good chance of losing. They would probably rather live with a decision they can chip away at than a SCOTUS decision they really won't like.

    A very good sign for our side. There may still be a circuit split, but no immediate cause for the SC to become involved.
     
    R

    rascal

    Ultimate Member
    Feb 15, 2013
    1,253
    If true, and with "sources say" it is likely true, but not certain yet this morning I bet the gun control lobby is now sorry they opposed peruta cert.

    Like Heller I, DC's actions and laws were uniquely hard to defend since there was discussion in code adoption and in Racine/Everytown et al's court filing/arguments in defense as well, where they were fairly explicit in their goal of limiting carry to as few people as possible. Once a jurisdiction says this is their reason, there is a problem. Gura correctly identified that as an intentional rationing scheme which is unique in the very few pre-emptive limits on rights (defamation, DND's etc are not pre-emptive government limits, but some upheld assembly laws are). DC's arguments were not like some on assembly resulting in laws upheld, and are much more like arguments that have been ruled unconstitutional.

    DC and Everytown also used sources that base their claims on gun violence on studies that also state that DC gun ownership is 25.9%. With DC having a known legal ownership, by both residents and non resident registration of 6,000 this means illegal to legal ownership is 170,000:6,000 or 28:1.

    If I were Gura I wou'd have loved to say: according to DC's filings own cited studies, one out of every four people you walk past in a DC residential neighborhood is a weapons criminal, illegally possessing a firearm, 170,000 of them -- and you are worried about the the 6,000 people who constitute the pool of likely carry applicants, who will be be trained and background checked and who are the most likely DC residents NOT to be weapons criminals? and if one out of four DC resident sis a weapons criminal, the highest rate of weapons criminality in the nation, isn't that already good cause for legal and law abiding applicants?
     
    R

    redeemed.man

    Ultimate Member
    Apr 29, 2013
    17,444
    HoCo
    swinokur said:
    there are plenty of places in DC like residential areas where you could carry. DC is a lot more than just the Federal enclave downtown

    While many of us only go downtown, there are plenty of people who live and work in DC and seldom go downtown.
    Click to expand...
    Doesn't the DC permit law state that you must obtain permission to be armed in a home from the owner of any home you are entering?
     
    R

    redeemed.man

    Ultimate Member
    Apr 29, 2013
    17,444
    HoCo
    Peaceful John said:
    I think EsqAppellate has stated that orals must be completed by mid-Jan 2018 to expect a decision by the following June. It surely won't take much for our side to postpone orals past that date.

    That will move Wrenn into the 2018 session. If J. Kennedy retires (as is expected) or J. Ginsberg dies (as is hoped), things will probably go quite well for us in the 2018-2019 sitting.

    I'm still only cautiously optimistic, but more than I've been previously.
    Click to expand...
    If J. Ginsberg dies (as is hoped)
    This post from "Peaceful" John makes it all the more hilarious.
     
    swinokur

    swinokur

    In a State of Bliss
    Patriot Picket
    Apr 15, 2009
    55,485
    Westminster USA
    Hopefully Cypherpunk will give the DC law class again

    With a 2 year limit on training, and the class given in July 2015, that training is now invalid
     
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