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Old June 23rd, 2020, 03:17 PM #61
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Pressure treated lumber has been scarce.
Why? What's the run on treated lumber for?
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Old June 23rd, 2020, 04:06 PM #62
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Pressure treated lumber has been scarce.
Yes- that surprised me. Went to 84 Lumber to get some 4x4s and they were out.
Everyone doing home improvement projects increased the demand?
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Old June 23rd, 2020, 04:45 PM #63
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Seems that the current shortages are related to combination of COVID-related shutdowns and demand.


https://www.fox29.com/news/shortage-...ction-projects

https://www.wnep.com/article/news/lo...4-3b1bf7623350
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Old June 23rd, 2020, 05:33 PM #64
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Wave or ripple?

https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

Almost half of the 2900 fatalities have been in nursing home/institutional settings.....and almost certainly all/nearly all of those had serious underlying conditions......

What we really need to know is who died WITH the rona vs who died FROM it....

By the numbers...Covid has a fatality rate thats like a bad seasonal flu AND it hits the same vulnerable population that is predisposed anyway

Only stat that folks should be following are hospitalization rates......which is still falling in Md

Shouldnt be another over reaction by government so long as people flatten the irrational fear associated with this.
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Old June 24th, 2020, 09:20 AM #65
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Originally Posted by jpk1md View Post
Wave or ripple?

https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

Almost half of the 2900 fatalities have been in nursing home/institutional settings.....and almost certainly all/nearly all of those had serious underlying conditions......

What we really need to know is who died WITH the rona vs who died FROM it....

By the numbers...Covid has a fatality rate thats like a bad seasonal flu AND it hits the same vulnerable population that is predisposed anyway

Only stat that folks should be following are hospitalization rates......which is still falling in Md

Shouldnt be another over reaction by government so long as people flatten the irrational fear associated with this.
Bad seasonal flu? We've been taking extraordinary measures compared to what we normally do for even a bad flu season with well over 3x as many deaths as a bad seasonal flu.

Actual death rate appears to be between 10-30x worse than the regular flu. Estimated at around 2x more fatal than the 1918 flu pandemic untreated (keeping in mind we have much better health care now than then). Also more contagious.

The vast majority of the "died with COVID" cases the person died because of it. They might have had a co-morbidity that resulted in them being vulnerable, but that's like saying a person died in a car accident because they were old and a younger person would have survived. Or they had a heart condition which predisposed them to die in the car accident.

No health department that I am aware of is reporting a death as COVID related when someone, say, falls down steps and dies and had tested positive.

Rosiest scenario based on the few good antibody studies (a number have been complete crap, not even worth the bytes the electronic papers were composed of) comes in at around .7% all age mortality rate. BUT those studies are still only surveying the most accessible populaces for their larger studies and only in major metropolitan areas. For example, Sweden did a study just in Stockholm on antibodies. Came in at ~7% had. From what I can find about 20+% of their COVID related deaths are in and around Stockholm. That works out to somewhat north of 1% all age. And Sweden has a much better health system than the US (BTW Sweden's health authority that has screwed the pooch says under .7%, but they only did antibody testing in Stockholm and extrapolated for the entire country, even though the most infections and deaths per 100k people have been in and around Stockholm).

NY also found somewhere around .6-.7%. But their study only did antibody assays on people at big box stores and grocery stores. Not those actually staying home. So the people most like to have gotten sick.

Lastly all countries have been missing deaths related to COVID. Looking at excess mortality numbers vs reported COVID deaths Denmark seems to be one of the best in the world at only having about 15-20% more deaths than reported COVID deaths that are "unexplained" compared to the running 5 year average. The US BTW was around 50%. Ecuador was around 2000%. That was by late May.

So that would translate to a real 150,000-180,000 deaths in the US. Probably closer to 150,000 as testing rates have been increasing so likely fewer missed deaths related to COVID, but then again a whole lot of those deaths were in April and early May (well, for now) and NY, NJ and CT appeared to be missing a LOT of deaths (they themselves admitted probably 50% more than was reported, but that still didn't capture total excess deaths).

So yeah, my risk factor is low being in my late 30s and in great health. There is a decent chance I'd be asymptomatic in the end. Theodore Roosevelt in the end had something around 1200 infections on the carrier. Average age of those infected was 30. I'd imagine they were mostly in much better health than the average American likely with no or rare there were any co-morbidities. 1 sailor died, only a few were severely ill. A few dozen hospitalized. Total final asymptomatic rate was around 23% (it was more like 60% early on, but over the course of weeks a lot more eventually developed symptoms). Of those asymptomatic probably some had atypical symptoms (that's been one of the issues with asymptomatic cases. Closer examination shows a lot of people have atypical symptoms and that usually gets reported as asymptomatic. Like having the runs, some insomnia and a bit tired).

But there are still lots and lots of people perfectly healthy in their tens, twenties and thirties with no health issues dying of it. Way more than what you'd see from the flu. During the 1918 flu pandemic young healthy people were rarely dying from it as well. The rate of hospitalization and death for younger adults and teens is still well above what the flu causes. Its just that if you are over 80, you've got about even odds of surviving an infection.
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Old June 24th, 2020, 09:22 AM #66
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Please pass the kool aid. On second thought, never mind; I'll stick with remaining rational.
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Old June 24th, 2020, 09:28 AM #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jpk1md View Post
Wave or ripple?

https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

Almost half of the 2900 fatalities have been in nursing home/institutional settings.....and almost certainly all/nearly all of those had serious underlying conditions......

What we really need to know is who died WITH the rona vs who died FROM it....

By the numbers...Covid has a fatality rate thats like a bad seasonal flu AND it hits the same vulnerable population that is predisposed anyway

Only stat that folks should be following are hospitalization rates......which is still falling in Md

Shouldnt be another over reaction by government so long as people flatten the irrational fear associated with this.
BTW yes, MD looks pretty good still. Look at other states like FL and TX however. We don't live in isolation. The seeds of the infections in FL and TX got there somehow. Unless we lock down the boarders of other states, it'll spread more here because of other states having higher counts.

Heck, just looking at the behavior of people I've seen and know it's going to start picking up in MD also. Went by my TH because of a tenant issue a couple of days ago. I saw several large groups of neighbors just hanging out on their lawns together. Drinking, talking. Like groups of 10-15 in a space of 500-600sq-ft sitting around in chairs and standing. I guess that's a little better than hanging out inside. A little. I know a number of friends and a lot of neighbors who've basically gone back to living life like normal with just slight modifications.

Infections lag by about 2-3 weeks after exposures pick up. Hospitalizations lag about 2 weeks behind diagnosis. Deaths lag about a week behind hospitalizations. We've been doing things to slow the spread, which is great. It does mean that instead of a rapid spike like NY, NJ and CT saw, its a slower rate of increase. That doesn't mean it can't get as high or higher. It also means most likely many governors are going to be slow in implementing any measures to reduce spread. Odds are good a lot of governors won't do anything even if it gets bad. They and a lot of the populace don't have any appetite for another lock down or increased restrictions. That's the problem with doing it badly. You don't really get the virus under control, but you still harm the economy and people get bored with things. It was still better than not doing anything for the economy and of course saved lives. But the 2nd wave is likely to be much worse than the 1st for all of those reasons.
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Old June 24th, 2020, 09:35 AM #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lazarus View Post
BTW yes, MD looks pretty good still. Look at other states like FL and TX however. We don't live in isolation. The seeds of the infections in FL and TX got there somehow. Unless we lock down the boarders of other states, it'll spread more here because of other states having higher counts.

Heck, just looking at the behavior of people I've seen and know it's going to start picking up in MD also. Went by my TH because of a tenant issue a couple of days ago. I saw several large groups of neighbors just hanging out on their lawns together. Drinking, talking. Like groups of 10-15 in a space of 500-600sq-ft sitting around in chairs and standing. I guess that's a little better than hanging out inside. A little. I know a number of friends and a lot of neighbors who've basically gone back to living life like normal with just slight modifications.

Infections lag by about 2-3 weeks after exposures pick up. Hospitalizations lag about 2 weeks behind diagnosis. Deaths lag about a week behind hospitalizations. We've been doing things to slow the spread, which is great. It does mean that instead of a rapid spike like NY, NJ and CT saw, its a slower rate of increase. That doesn't mean it can't get as high or higher. It also means most likely many governors are going to be slow in implementing any measures to reduce spread. Odds are good a lot of governors won't do anything even if it gets bad. They and a lot of the populace don't have any appetite for another lock down or increased restrictions. That's the problem with doing it badly. You don't really get the virus under control, but you still harm the economy and people get bored with things. It was still better than not doing anything for the economy and of course saved lives. But the 2nd wave is likely to be much worse than the 1st for all of those reasons.
Adjusted for population, both Florida and Texas have fewer cases per/million.

Their rate of death is alarmingly lower compared to Maryland when adjusted for population.

Maryland is 11th in the nation for rate of death and 10th for the number of cases when adjusted for population.

By your rationale, we should be preventing Marylanders from going to other states because Maryland is the largest source of infection and death compared to any of our contiguous neighbors other than DC.
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Old June 30th, 2020, 09:22 PM #69
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Powdered Milk....what kind you all using or getting. Amazon has some now?
Nido is the best

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Nestle-NI...ister/14869811
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Old June 30th, 2020, 09:25 PM #70
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What will sell out first in a wintertime pandemic? How will you spend your time during a winter quarantine?
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