Best way to sell a high value collectible?

BlackBart · Oct 20, 2010

trickg said:
Can you appraise it out of a book? Most books don't even list the 22" barrel except for carbine models, but this one isn't a carbine - it's a rifle.

To put it into perspective, out of all 1886s ever made, only about 8500 of them were made with a 22" barrel, and most of those were carbines - only 2213 of them were rifles.

But to consult the rarity table from the Madis book, in the first 100,000 of the 1886s produced, only 200 of those were carbines. My serial is 52,xxx, so given that rifles were more rare than carbines by a factor of 1 rifle to every 3carbines, and that my rifle is approximately halfway between 1 and 100,00, I've got one of about 30 short rifles produced in the first 60,000.

See what I mean? But the rarity is only part of it - the condition makes up the rest. I had a guy try to play up the fact that the barrel sights aren't original to the gun. In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn't matter and especially not since those sights are the earliest version of the #6 folding leaf sight and has been on the barrel for at least 100 years.

Probably not, I was using my "Blue Book". Oh oh, next page carbine in 22 inch ROUND barrel does not even mention a octo in the carbine. The "only" add for it is 40% for a full stock (very rare). Could it possible have been cut down? 95% on the carbine is at 15K! Either way, neat neat NEAT gun.

trickg · Oct 20, 2010

BlackBart said:
Probably not, I was using my "Blue Book". Oh oh, next page carbine in 22 inch ROUND barrel does not even mention a octo in the carbine. The "only" add for it is 40% for a full stock (very rare). Could it possible have been cut down? 95% on the carbine is at 15K! Either way, neat neat NEAT gun.

No, it's not possible that it was cut down - I have the letter from the Cody Firearms Museum that details the specs on the rifle as it came from Winchester. With a 22" barrel.

It is a really neat gun - part of me knows that the right thing to do at the moment is to sell it, but at the same time I'd really like to hang on to it, but mainly for the reason that when I'm talking shop with folks in the know, it's kind of like having the ability to say "mine is bigger than yours!" :party29:

You mentioned going on GB with a rediculously high selling price. Even if I go with a modestly fair value, it's already rediculously high due to the sheer rarity of it combined with its excellent condition.

According to the Madis book there were 159,994 of the model 1886 produced up through 1932, when they say production actually ended. 2,213 is not quite 1.4% of the total, so no matter what year it was made, as a 22" short rifle it would be valuable, but in order for it to fetch a premium it needs to be considered, "antique" - produced before 1899. Mine easily makes the cut there too.

I was chatting with a guy in a gun store and the subject of Winchester rifles came up. He didn't believe me because he couldn't find it in his blue book. He didn't believe me until I showed it to him along with a copy of the letter. I can't blame him though - some guy comes in and starts talking about owning something that's not even referenced in an appraisers handbook, and it might seem a bit sketchy.

Maryland_Shooter · Oct 21, 2010

Yeah gun store talk is not known for its veracity

trickg · Oct 21, 2010

Maryland_Shooter said:
Yeah gun store talk is not known for its veracity

We got into it one other time about something where I was 99% sure I knew what I was talking about, which of course turned out that I DID know what I was talking about, and they didn't.

Maryland_Shooter · Oct 21, 2010

Yeah they don't like that - I know one FFL on here that HATES when you prove him wrong.

Bisleyfan44 · Oct 21, 2010

There are only two "likely" ways to actually sell the gun, not just have it for sale.

One is to consign it to one of the major auction houses. They do indeed "take" their commission, but they also have a huge, ready-made buyer base just waiting for gems like your to surface. They earn their commission by providing you a certain sale at the real market price, not some price guide value. Real market prices can be higher or lower than various printed sources, but your gun, sold by this venue will realize the highest "real" market price.

The other is one of the online auction sites, like GunBroker, AuctionArms, or even GunsAmerica. Nothing determines real-world value like starting the auction at $1 with no reserve and letting the market determine the value. Lots of risk that way and probably not how I'd sell your gun. I'd likely set a reserve that meets your minimum needs and let it go. GB is cheap fee-wise upfront and is fair even after the auction ends. Free relists if unsold. But then again, GB has a ready-made base of buyers just waiting for stuff to buy. They provide buyers for their commission.

The advantage to the above options is that they let the gun itself and the auction house/site do the selling and do it in a relatively quick time. The only other option is to try to find that one guy with both the desire for AND the means to acquire your gun. This means you'll have to do the work required to sell it. Finding that one (or two) guy(s) somewhere in the whole country yourself seems like a very daunting task.

Good luck if you decide to sell it. It's a really beautiful rifle.

Mike OTDP · Oct 21, 2010

First, I'd do my best NOT to sell at this time. Unless you are desperate for the money, you're better off to oil the gun, put it in a safe, and let it appreciate.

Second, it sounds like you are talking about $10K+ for a sale price. This is well beyond what the online auction sites can reasonably handle. I'd suggest one of the big auction houses. Rock Island, Amoskeag...but my first pick would probably be Little John's. They are on the West Coast, and as a rule, anything Western-related will fetch top dollar in California.

Idempotent · Oct 21, 2010

Mike OTDP said:
First, I'd do my best NOT to sell at this time. Unless you are desperate for the money, you're better off to oil the gun, put it in a safe, and let it appreciate.

I think there are other investments that will appreciate at a better rate than this rifle. Also, any of those investments that are of the stock variety are going to be much easier to liquidate if anything happens and he needs access to cash now. It could easily take months to find a buyer for that rifle to get a proper price for it, but $15K in stocks (or however much it's worth) could be sold in an instant any business day between 0930 and 1600.

trickg · Oct 21, 2010

Thanks for the input - I've been thinking about this a lot and considering what a special collectors piece this is I could probably post it on a couple of forums and find a buyer. $10K+ isn't even in the same ballpark. Seriously - I've gone to a lot of gun shows and looked around, and I rarely see anything that approaches mine in terms of condition and collectibility. There are guys out there just waiting for something like this to come along, but I have to find the right buyer because whoever wants it is going to have to have some pretty deep pockets - I know what it's worth and I'm not going to let it go for less than it's worth just to get it sold. I don't need the money that badly.

trickg · Oct 21, 2010

Mike OTDP said:
Second, it sounds like you are talking about $10K+ for a sale price. This is well beyond what the online auction sites can reasonably handle.

I was re-reading the last few posts and I thought I'd ask you about this. Why is $10K+ beyond what an auction site can reasonably handle? Why would it matter? I've seen other rare Winchesters go for some pretty high amounts ($20-$30K)on a couple of them.

Mike OTDP · Oct 22, 2010

trickg said:
I was re-reading the last few posts and I thought I'd ask you about this. Why is $10K+ beyond what an auction site can reasonably handle? Why would it matter? I've seen other rare Winchesters go for some pretty high amounts ($20-$30K)on a couple of them.

My observation has been that both GunBroker and AuctionArms buyers are unwilling to shell out much more than ~$2K. Once you get into the big money, people are more inclined to want to see the gun firsthand.

trickg · Oct 22, 2010

Mike OTDP said:
My observation has been that both GunBroker and AuctionArms buyers are unwilling to shell out much more than ~$2K. Once you get into the big money, people are more inclined to want to see the gun firsthand.

Ah - that makes sense then, as well it should. I'm not sure I'd want to roll out that kind of dough to buy something like that sight unseen.

Jerry M · Oct 22, 2010

If your not in a hurry take it to Maryland Arms Collectors Club in March at the Timmonium Fair grounds. There are collectors from all over the State's and from Europe as well that attend that show.

Good luck

Jerry

trickg · Oct 22, 2010

I took it over there a couple of years ago to show it to a guy, and I literally had guys jumping up from behind tables chasing after me to ask me what I wanted for it and if I wanted to sell it. Seriously - I went walking by this one table and the guy behind it jumped up and about fell all over himself trying to get around the table so that I didn't get away. The question is, can I get a fair price for it?

I've been talking to an antique arms dealer about it, but it's like they keep wanting to stick their toe in the water - they keep asking coy questions about what I think it's worth, and talking about the minor alterations that have been made to the gun. The bottom line is that even with slight alterations, (specifically the non-factory barrel sights) it's just really doesn't matter that much - it's still a papered 22" Winchester 1886 rifle in 45 caliber, and it's in excellent condition.

Dave91 · Nov 1, 2010

I'll trade you a 20 gauge Winchester model 12 from 1923 and an Ithaca model 37 with US military stamps on it.

Edit:
Wow, after reading the rest of the posts my offer is not up to par, I apologize.

HardHatMan · Nov 1, 2010

Wow, that is a beautiful rifle. Your father was a smart man snatching it up. If you're not having money problems, I wouldn't settle for anything less than what you would want to sell it for.

Thanks for sharing the pics!

trickg · Nov 1, 2010

Dave91 said:
I'll trade you a 20 gauge Winchester model 12 from 1923 and an Ithaca model 37 with US military stamps on it.

Edit:
Wow, after reading the rest of the posts my offer is not up to par, I apologize.

No worries. That rifle really is something else. The fact that I have it at all is still somewhat amazing to me because that's the kind of thing that the common man like me doesn't usually have - that's the kind of rifle you find in serious collections of high rollers.

I'm still not sure what I'm going to do with it. I put in an inquiry with a fairly well known antique arms dealer to see if they wanted to work with me, and they seemed interested until I let it be known that I know exactly what I've got in terms of collectibility and value, and I haven't really heard from them since. I guess they wanted a bigger margin of profit? I mean, they just stopped contacting me at all - if they thought I was out of line on what I felt it was worth (and I'm not, by the way) they could have at least said so, right?

Bob A · Nov 1, 2010

It's very hard to establish a value for a unique item. As ever, an object is worth what someone is willing to pay. The trick is to find more than one person interested, and gt the parties bidding against one another.

This requires a lot of exposure, and a venue where high prices are not unusual.

Meanwhile, research is your friend. Try to find prices realised for objects similar to yours. Museum curators can be helpful with the search. Look into auction houses that specialise in high-end firearms. It should go without saying that the rifle should be kept in a secure location, and heavily insured, until you are able to dispose of it.

Spending a year or two raising the buzz about the rifle's existence would be time well spent. A writeup in a national publication would prove invaluable.

Have fun.

trickg · Nov 1, 2010

Bob, all good points. The rifle has been pretty well researched already. It is rare - period. Even excluding some of the other aspects of the rifle such as its age and condition, the 22" barrel makes it an odd find, and those one of a kind rifles always carry a premium. I've seen specimens that aren't as old or as nice as mine in the mid to high 20s simply due to the short barrel configuration. Mine is also 45 caliber, making it more rare, but it's 45-90 rather than 45-70 Government, which makes it even more desireable from a collector's standpoint.

I think a solution to my problem would be to simply walk around with it at the Timonium Antique Arms show. The day I had it there a couple of years back I had a number of interested parties who wanted it as soon as they saw it and high prices on firearms at that show is the norm - Colt pistols that are $10K+, and the odd Winchester, Henry or Volcanic Arms rifle that is $20K+ is not unheard of there at all. Of course pricing and selling are two totally different things and I suspect that there will be a lot of horse trading activity and negotiation before a deal can be agreed upon.

h2u · Nov 12, 2010

I know this is late warning- but as I'm not going this year and I've been out of town and not keeping track...
I would suggest you might jump in your truck and drive to Tulsa this weekend. This is THE big collectors show for the year.

As another suggestion. I would look around and try to have professional pics taken for posterity-before it's gone.

Best way to sell a high value collectible?

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