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  • WeaponsCollector

    EXTREME GUN OWNER
    Mar 30, 2009
    12,120
    Southern MD
    The actual percentage of people who have guns in any state in America is IMPOSSIBLE to know, unless of course you send suicidal and/or homicidal jackboot thugs to every single home to search for guns and even then they won't find all of them....
     

    Jimbob2.0

    Ultimate Member
    Feb 20, 2008
    16,600
    Lots of strange numbers. I have lived a few of these places and would say 50%+ was more common. Definitions may count here. Are we asking about handguns? Hunting guns? Other?
     

    qwertee123

    Choose Freedom
    MDS Supporter
    Apr 18, 2009
    4,346
    Stuck in MoCo ...
    It does not look right for MD. There are about 80k HQL out there. If half of the gun owners applied for HQL, the total of gun owners will be 160k. And MD has 6 million people. Let's assume 4 million are adults. The percentage will be 4%.


    The study is for % of people who have at least one gun, not just handguns; i.e. including shotguns and rifles.
     

    danb

    dont be a dumbass
    Feb 24, 2013
    22,704
    google is your friend, I am not.
    This poll of 4000 adults is a glorified IQ test. Who was dumb enough to report to strangers that they have guns, gold, or valuables in the house?

    For the record, all my guns were lost in a series of unfortunate boating accidents. I have the worst luck on the water.

    Same dumb recycled polls that predicted Clinton would win, Britain would stay in the EU, etc. etc.
     

    qwertee123

    Choose Freedom
    MDS Supporter
    Apr 18, 2009
    4,346
    Stuck in MoCo ...
    This graphic is a classic example of what NOT to do; one should avoid comparing rates and instead compare populations.

    For example, NY is very misleading; outside of NYC; you have about 12.5 million people, so 10% is still >1 million gun owners.

    I replotted the data: lighter blue is fewer (1M owners).

    Note that there are more gun owners in NY and CA than most of the western and some southern states.

    Many "blue states" are more armed than we think...
     

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    rascal

    Ultimate Member
    Feb 15, 2013
    1,253
    Gun ownership was 2.25-times greater among those reporting social gun culture (PR=2.25, 95% CI 2.02 to 2.52) than those who did not. In conclusion, we found strong association between social gun culture and gun ownership.

    This chart is NOT gun ownership, it is who is willing to tell a stranger in an interview that is not truly anonymous, and when self and home defense firearm instruction includes strong recommendations to tell never tell a stranger you have a gun at home, who will still tell a strange they have a firearm.

    This "study" and its gun ownership numbers at a crock and the peer reviewed science on confidential issues and surveys shows over and over that these method creates undercounts of around to 50%. In other words this is more likely to show US gun ownership is 66% of households, not 33%.

    Gun ownership is often highly confidential. If one lives in Alaska, where there is a) little social stigma and b) people know other people are likely to own firearms, engage in semi public activities like hunting and target shooting and therefore don't consider ownership secret, the undercount is probably a 10 to 20% undercount. In Maryland, and the Northeast, where there is a stigma fostered by the gun control lobby, and where other studies show 90% of firearms ownership is related to home or self defense, a 20% "reported" gun ownership is quite likely to be 50% or more.

    The science that studies surveys and polling and tests accuracy, shows, in dozens of major peer reviewed studies that asking people direct questions on privacy related matters always results in severe undercounts

    Do we really think everyone or most gay people in 1970 would tell an interviewer they were gay? People who had smoked dope would say so? Imagine doing a survey of convenience stores and asking them if they keep a lot of cash? Would you tell a stranger surveying you -- and maintaining a database of answers tied to PII (personally identifiable information), with those databases often hacked -- that you keep valuables at home?

    The science on surveying and polling accuracy proves over and over that indirect questions are more accurate than the direct question asked in this survey. Look at the indirect question that is almost certainly more accurate representation of trends:
    http://www.pewresearch.org/files/2015/04/FT_15.04.01_guns_Safer.png

    Really that New Hampshire number is funny. People from new Hampshire are famous for their high valuation of privacy. They have virtually no gun laws quite specifically because a) people there are very private, and b) it is likely they have 75% gun ownership. There are other, more sober, methodologies that literally invert the claims and show New Hampshire to be the highest gun ownership, while this "study" indicates it is among the lowest.

    Lastly, this kind of junk science is exactly why CDC funding of third party got limited -- and deservedly so.
     

    Melnic

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Dec 27, 2012
    15,278
    HoCo
    I have a map. This map shows legal vs. illegal gun ownership.
    RED= high concentration of Legal gun ownership
    BLUE=high concentration of Illegal gun ownership.

    Blue is also the areas where if you carry a Democratic voter card with you, you will not be prosecuted of a gun crime.
     

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    Schipperke

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Feb 19, 2013
    18,532
    Percent Who Own Guns

    No, not at all.

    Half the guns in America have been analysed to be owned by 3% of Americans. Go ahead and tear that apart as propaganda, but I'd bet that number is very close just in my years anecdotally knowing gun owners.

    The percent on that map is more likely "Households that have at least one firearm", not actual "owners".

    Delaware is a heck of an outlier. Maryland at 20% of households I've seen cited in other studies as well. It may be over half of homes in Western and Eastern Shore own a firearm, but overall 20% for the state seems reasonable.
     

    rascal

    Ultimate Member
    Feb 15, 2013
    1,253
    No, not at all.

    Half the guns in America have been analysed to be owned by 3% of Americans. Go ahead and tear that apart as propaganda, but .


    it is easily torn apart as propaganda, or more specifically junk science that scientist who deal with these types of questions already know result in huge undercounts.

    It is most likely 2/3 of Americas have firearms. Again the survey quoted by Time reflects the number of people who do not care about their gun ownership being private. Would you tell a face to face surveyor (lol, and from an institution that forbids looking at criminal records for employment or matriculation) that you have a gun at home? I would not.

    And 130 million guns is "half" guns in the US? Before the large buying spree that started 25 years ago estimates were 275 to 325 million firearms.

    Again it is common sense why someone with over ten irearms would be over falsely over represented in the surveys and the 100 million or so with one gun for home defense would be profoundly under counted.
     

    Knuckle Dragger

    Active Member
    May 7, 2012
    213
    The data behind this map is HIGHLY suspect. We know for a fact that the Massachusetts numbers are way, way off. Massachusetts has universal licensing. Based upon a series of public records requests, we know that only about 4% of the adult population in Massachusetts have firearms license.

    Don't read too much into this.
     

    rascal

    Ultimate Member
    Feb 15, 2013
    1,253
    I grew up in NH, and lived in New England until a couple of years ago. Those numbers for NH and VT seem low to me.
    Of course they are low. gun ownership today is likely 63% of US households and rising for 20 years now.

    Multiple peer reviewed science shows respondents will answer a confidential direct question from a stranger negatively most of the time resulting in 50% undercounts when it comes to private questions (are you gay, do you keep cash at home).

    Really imagine calling people (Gallup) or visiting their homes (GSS) in say 1970 North Carolina and asking people if they are gay. Lets say the actual human rate is 3%, do you really think you would get 3% saying yes? More like 0.03%.

    This is why not only at the raw numbers of "gun ownership rate" half of actual numbers, but the most undercounted are women and urban dwellers in areas and peer groups with highest perceived social stigma to gun ownership

    Here is what you need to know, there is a MASSIVE trend toward more and more people knowing owning a firearm makes their family safer, about 2/3 of Americans now know owing a gun makes their household safer, this almost certainly directly represents gun ownership rates and trends:
    http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2015/04/FT_15.04.01_guns_Safer.png
    FT_15.04.01_guns_Safer.png
     

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