Some Numbers to Think About for 2018

dblas · Dec 1, 2016

We have less than two years until the 2018 State elections, that means:

2 more Legislative sessions.

What kind of numbers do we need to help effect the kind of change we want to see in the firearms community?

Re elect 1 Governor (Hogane) (Yes, there are those that will bitch about this, let's hear it)

Elect 5 additional Republican Senators to be able to prevent a veto override.
In 2014 the Republicans took 2 seats, they think they have a good shot at 5 more, I personally think they should aim for 8-10 districts instead of just 5 incase they fall short.

Elect 8 additional Republican Delegates to be able to prevent a veto override.
Before people laugh at this, in the 2010 election the Republicans picked up 7 seats, and they picked up an additional 7 seats in 2014. (Still think it can't be done?

And before anyone starts talking about the Presidential election results in Maryland, do some homework before you do and understand that the results from the Presidential election years have absolutely no affect on the State level election during the midterm elections. The only issue will be what effect a majority House/Senate/President in DC will have.

Just thought I would put the base numbers out there, now, how do we start to help the Republicans meet or exceed those numbers?

mxrider · Dec 1, 2016

dblas said:
We have less than two years until the 2018 State elections, that means:

2 more Legislative sessions.

What kind of numbers do we need to help effect the kind of change we want to see in the firearms community?

Re elect 1 Governor (Hogane) (Yes, there are those that will bitch about this, let's hear it)

Elect 5 additional Republican Senators to be able to prevent a veto override.
In 2014 the Republicans took 2 seats, they think they have a good shot at 5 more, I personally think they should aim for 8-10 districts instead of just 5 incase they fall short.

Elect 8 additional Republican Delegates to be able to prevent a veto override.
Before people laugh at this, in the 2010 election the Republicans picked up 7 seats, and they picked up an additional 7 seats in 2014. (Still think it can't be done?

And before anyone starts talking about the Presidential election results in Maryland, do some homework before you do and understand that the results from the Presidential election years have absolutely no affect on the State level election during the midterm elections. The only issue will be what effect a majority House/Senate/President in DC will have.

Just thought I would put the base numbers out there, now, how do we start to help the Republicans meet or exceed those numbers?

A PAC designated to this cause would go a long way to making this happen......MDFASS????

RoadDawg · Dec 1, 2016

dblas said:
We have less than two years until the 2018 State elections, that means:

2 more Legislative sessions.

What kind of numbers do we need to help effect the kind of change we want to see in the firearms community?

Re elect 1 Governor (Hogane) (Yes, there are those that will bitch about this, let's hear it)

Elect 5 additional Republican Senators to be able to prevent a veto override.
In 2014 the Republicans took 2 seats, they think they have a good shot at 5 more, I personally think they should aim for 8-10 districts instead of just 5 incase they fall short.

Elect 8 additional Republican Delegates to be able to prevent a veto override.
Before people laugh at this, in the 2010 election the Republicans picked up 7 seats, and they picked up an additional 7 seats in 2014. (Still think it can't be done?

And before anyone starts talking about the Presidential election results in Maryland, do some homework before you do and understand that the results from the Presidential election years have absolutely no affect on the State level election during the midterm elections. The only issue will be what effect a majority House/Senate/President in DC will have.

Just thought I would put the base numbers out there, now, how do we start to help the Republicans meet or exceed those numbers?

Like it or not...(and I am sure that there are folks on both sides of this fence) the results of the flavor of politics in this state will have a lot to do with the next two years in DC. IF Trump is successful in his endeavors and raises the level of favor with his policies, for the R party in Md. we will see a shift in the way voters will approach the next election. If, however, the "libmachine" is able to stymie his efforts and nothing gets accomplished which sits well with the Md. Dems and Libs... we will STILL face the same uphill battle for what remains of our COTUS rights in this state.

Mr H · Dec 1, 2016

I agree completely with the OP, as we've talked about before.

If we don't build on the momentum and gains we've seen these past 2-4 years, I worry for the future.

Before the Natterers take the floor, there is plenty to work toward.

Using D32 as an example, there could very well be 3 of 4 seats open in 2018 (all but guaranteed if we keep the pressure on). But...

NONE of this matters a whit without solid candidates.

If the gains you're talking about in the House and Senate are realized then we are well ahead (by comparison). The Rs could ALMOST (IMO) even absorb a 1-term loss at Governor (though re-electing Hogan--at this point--is a priority).

dblas · Dec 1, 2016

RoadDawg said:
Like it or not...(and I am sure that there are folks on both sides of this fence) the results of the flavor of politics in this state will have a lot to do with the next two years in DC. IF Trump is successful in his endeavors and raises the level of favor with his policies, for the R party in Md. we will see a shift in the way voters will approach the next election. If, however, the "libmachine" is able to stymie his efforts and nothing gets accomplished which sits well with the Md. Dems and Libs... we will STILL face the same uphill battle for what remains of our COTUS rights in this state.

I don't disagree as I briefly stated in my OP.

dblas · Dec 1, 2016

mxrider said:
A PAC designated to this cause would go a long way to making this happen......MDFASS????

Might be one of limbs I was talking about in another thread. Though, I'm not too keen on taking on another title at this time.

Bob A · Dec 1, 2016

This is a big job, too big for a single-issue group to field on its own with any effectiveness. The State Republican Party must be on board with this, and it will require money, and boots on the ground.

A corollary effort to elect weak Dem candidates in the primaries would also help. DINOs, take note.

dblas · Dec 1, 2016

Bob A said:
This is a big job, too big for a single-issue group to field on its own with any effectiveness. The State Republican Party must be on board with this, and it will require money, and boots on the ground.

A corollary effort to elect weak Dem candidates in the primaries would also help. DINOs, take note.

So, the Senate Republican caucus has 5 districts targeted and funds to spend, no clue about the House caucus, or the state republican party. And yes, this is bigger than any one singular one issue group, but it's time to throw in more, wether it be money, time volunteering, whatever.

MDFF2008 · Dec 1, 2016

Start with Ron Young in Frederick.

Matlack · Dec 1, 2016

I've stated my 2 cents on this topic several times. I firmly believe that this community could really help change this state in a major way.

j_h_smith · Dec 1, 2016

Has there been any work on determining who are the most vulnerable candidates for the 2018 elections? We need a concerted effort on working against these representatives. We need to know NOW who we must defeat in 2018.

Matlack · Dec 1, 2016

j_h_smith said:
Has there been any work on determining who are the most vulnerable candidates for the 2018 elections? We need a concerted effort on working against these representatives. We need to know NOW who we must defeat in 2018.

I should avoid this thread.

How do you plan to defeat them if someone were to tell you who is vulnerable? Show me your plan and I would be happy to tell you who is vulnerable.

Mr H · Dec 2, 2016

j_h_smith said:
Has there been any work on determining who are the most vulnerable candidates for the 2018 elections? We need a concerted effort on working against these representatives. We need to know NOW who we must defeat in 2018.

They could almost ALL be 'vulnerable' if good candidates, good messaging, and good support are brought together.

Pointing out individuals would just allow them time to retrench and develop plans in advance.

Right now IMO the best course is to pressure all of them from the legislative side of the street. Maybe then we can make more of them decide it's not worth the hassle.

Biggfoot44 · Dec 2, 2016

Also depends on who does somthing stupid in the next two MGA sessions.

danb · Dec 2, 2016

I think that some people are more vulnerable than others, thank's to Hogan's popularity, and should know we are coming.

And not just on 2nd amendment issues.

But we can run all the numbers and lists we want. The GOP in this state still appears feckless to me, even under Hogan.

Muleskinner · Dec 2, 2016

Now let's try reality...Maryland is nearly 70% dem...the election districts are highly gerrymandered, people are lazy and don't do their homework, Republicans got exactly zero coat tails from the Presidential election thanks to Hogan's refusal to back Trump and in the eyes of many, Hogan is a disappointment..now couple that with the shenanigans Mike and Mike are planning for the next 2 sessions and what you are wishing for becomes next to impossible...call me negative, I know some of you will...but deep inside you know the reality of the situation..

good guy 176 · Dec 2, 2016

Muleskinner said:
Now let's try reality...Maryland is nearly 70% dem...the election districts are highly gerrymandered, people are lazy and don't do their homework, Republicans got exactly zero coat tails from the Presidential election thanks to Hogan's refusal to back Trump and in the eyes of many, Hogan is a disappointment..now couple that with the shenanigans Mike and Mike are planning for the next 2 sessions and what you are wishing for becomes next to impossible...call me negative, I know some of you will...but deep inside you know the reality of the situation..

Yes, add me to he naysayers list. I've witnessed the last 39 years in Merriland and have seen two surprises...Erlich and now Hogan, a disappointment to the 2A community to say the least. His stand against Trump was the nail that has sealed his fate.

Folks in Monkey, PG, Balt City, Balt county and Annapolis do not vote issues like you and I; they vote sanctuary state matters, Section 8, free this or that and look the other way on drugs and law enforcement...look at the recent riots in the City as a good example (the Mayor should have gone to jail for allowing that to happen).

I'd love to be more positive, but only believe that we can chip away at changing things, but a major swing in Maryland is not going to happen in our life spans.

I live in the last white redoubt in PG county, and the lunkheads in the hood vote Democratic religiously. Take a close look at how the demographics have changed and you will see what a tremendous obstacle you face.

Me, my time is limited and I will die and rest at my roots in Indiana, PA. We don't have these discussions in small town USA either!

Lew--Ranger63
Korea, Vietnam (2), Germany

dblas · Dec 2, 2016

Muleskinner said:
Now let's try reality...Maryland is nearly 70% dem...the election districts are highly gerrymandered, people are lazy and don't do their homework, Republicans got exactly zero coat tails from the Presidential election thanks to Hogan's refusal to back Trump and in the eyes of many, Hogan is a disappointment..now couple that with the shenanigans Mike and Mike are planning for the next 2 sessions and what you are wishing for becomes next to impossible...call me negative, I know some of you will...but deep inside you know the reality of the situation..

While I won't say you, and others that believe the same as you are wrong, I will say I disagree. In the past two state elections, they have had absolutely no tie in to how the previous Presidential election went. If that were the case, Republicans would not have made the gains they have in the House of Delegates.

Let's look at the last two State elections and the previous Presidential election:

2008 Presidential Election = Obama first elected, 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans voted into Congress.
2010 State election = O'Malley re elected (Beat Ehrlich) and the Republicans picked up 7 seats in the House of Delegates.

2012 Presidential Election = Obama re elected, 6 Democrats and 1 Republican elected to Congress after redistricting.
2014 State Election = Hogan elected over Brown and Republicans picked up 7 more seats in the House of Delegates and 2 seats in the Senate, after redistricting.

The Republicans in the House of Delegates are doing something right to pick up 14 seats over the last two elections.

Just my .02 worth on past results.

dblas · Dec 2, 2016

good guy 176 said:
Yes, add me to he naysayers list. I've witnessed the last 39 years in Merriland and have seen two surprises...Erlich and now Hogan, a disappointment to the 2A community to say the least. His stand against Trump was the nail that has sealed his fate.

Folks in Monkey, PG, Balt City, Balt county and Annapolis do not vote issues like you and I; they vote sanctuary state matters, Section 8, free this or that and look the other way on drugs and law enforcement...look at the recent riots in the City as a good example (the Mayor should have gone to jail for allowing that to happen).

I'd love to be more positive, but only believe that we can chip away at changing things, but a major swing in Maryland is not going to happen in our life spans.

I live in the last white redoubt in PG county, and the lunkheads in the hood vote Democratic religiously. Take a close look at how the demographics have changed and you will see what a tremendous obstacle you face.

Me, my time is limited and I will die and rest at my roots in Indiana, PA. We don't have these discussions in small town USA either!

Lew--Ranger63
Korea, Vietnam (2), Germany

That's an awfully wide brush you are painting with there given the folks on this board that live in those locations.

fidelity · Dec 3, 2016

gprimr1 said:
Start with Ron Young in Frederick.

Frederick County went 50% Trump and 45% Clinton, if I remember correctly. Young had a very narrow victory last election.

Do wonder why this suit was dropped that alleged voter fraud in Frederick County in 2014 ...

http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/21/c...-alleges-massive-voter-fraud-by-non-citizens/

Republican Maryland Delegate Pat McDonough said in a press release Friday “that Maryland will be in victim of massive voter fraud in the upcoming election.”

McDonough, a candidate in Maryland’s second congressional district, pointed to an investigation by the Virginia Voters Alliance (VVA) in Frederick County that resulted in a 2014 lawsuit against the the Maryland Board of Elections and the Frederick County Board of Elections.

The plaintiffs said in their complaint that a comparison of jury service lists and voter registration lists found a large number of non-citizens who were registered to vote in Frederick County. The VVA ended up voluntarily withdrawing their lawsuit.

Estimates at the time argued as many as 7% of Frederick County voters could be illegal aliens.

Some Numbers to Think About for 2018

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