DanGuy48
Ultimate Member
Thanks all.
Could this be the exceptional case where they court holds a case over until next session?
Could this be the exceptional case where they court holds a case over until next session?
For mid may 2015 conference cases that were redistributed, there is exactly 50-50 chance the case was denied cert (with out without dissent, but usually with), 50-50 chance the case was "decided" (Per curiam, GVR, or scheduled for oral arguments and decided on merits). The only cases that were held over until next term were ones where the SCT requested a response from the Solicitor General. There are a few cases from 2015 and 2016 where they redistributed the case a few times, then asked for a response (all I checked were ultimately denied). FWIW, there are 10 more cases redistributed compared to the same conference last year, and 6 more cases redistributed than 2015.
I'd say at this point it's exactly a coin flip whether its a grant or denial.
Accounting for previous "variable change", the odds should go up. Though I think the odds for Yahtzee are still better.
I guess we will hear on Tuesday as Monday is Memorial day?
NOBODY
As an employee of the SCOTUS I can confirm Tuesday as a big YEP.
If he knew, he wouldn't tell you
I'm going to be the pessimist and say it's been denied with a dissent.
Hoping I'm wrong.
Here's to hoping for a per curiam