GAO study notwithstanding, let's take a hard look at this bill, in its current form. The operative text from section (b) of the bill (as sent to the Senate):
The possession or carrying of a concealed hand-gun in a State under this section shall be subject to the same conditions and limitations, except as to eligibility to possess or carry, imposed by or under Federal or State law or the law of a political subdivision of a State, that apply to the possession or carrying of a concealed handgun by residents of the State or political subdivision who are licensed by the State or political subdivision to do so, or not prohibited by the State from doing so.
Noting the underlined, let's look at the same text without that exception (the exception language goes to how the States allow its own citizens to be licensed and has no effect upon how the law will be handled with regards to non-residents):
The possession or carrying of a concealed hand-gun in a State under this section shall be subject to the same conditions and limitations .... that apply to the possession or carrying of a concealed handgun by residents of the State or political subdivision who are licensed by the State or political subdivision to do so, or not prohibited by the State from doing so.
What is not in this text, is the prior language authorizing a non-resident licensee to operate as if he held that States least restrictive license. As I already explained, what is not in the text is the prior findings that accept the right to carry in public for self defense is part of the core right, as expressed in Heller (all of that language was stricken in an amendment - as a substitution - on Nov. 10th, just before the bill passed out of committee). That language was crucial in the operation of the bill.
As it stands, should this bill pass the Senate and be signed into law, any State legislature may pass what could be called a "general license" with any number of restrictions as opposed to a "special license" with many less restrictions.
With this bill:
- States may enact levels of carry permits.
- States may assign "visitor" carry to any of the levels of public carry enacted.
- The bill further entrenches the idea that public carry is a privilege.
- Current court cases that deal with carry as a right will be harmed.
- The bill provides the courts with a legislative "out" to find that carry is a privilege, not a right.
- The Illinois cases, Shepard and Moore will be rendered moot (right to carry outside the home).
- Benson will be rendered moot (restrictive licensing).
- Ezell may survive, but it will be much harder to win (ancillary rights).
- Enos will be rendered moot (MCDV).
- Peterson will be rendered moot (interstate travel).
Peruta,Haynie, & Richards will not survive at the Circuit (AWB).- Nordyke will be rendered moot (restricted places).
- It will be many more years before any case may come to the Supreme Court.
- With the GAO study in place, Congress will centralize a registry of permit holders.
- At some point, the Federal Legislature will begin to "regulate" the manner of obtaining permits (direct interference with State regulations).
I could go on, explaining how this bill will effect each and every case we are watching (not just the few I gave as examples, above). In general, by stripping all of the original language from the bill, the legislature has implicitly said that the right to carry in public, is not a right at all, but a mere privilege that can be regulated to any extent, or denied altogether.
Those of you that are for this bill will not be phased in the least. You want what you want and you want it now. The hell with the consequences!
Bottom line. Should this bill become law, it will unravel both Heller and McDonald in the short term. Perhaps, in the long term as well.
I don't see how any of those cases except Peterson are mooted. Those other carry cases mentioned are resident carry cases not subject to 822. The others deal with non-carry, also not subject to 822. Perhaps why the 2A/14A authority was removed was to keep those cases from being mooted-although I can't explain why.
As far as the least restrictive permits go, let's realize the only states that have restricted permits are the may-issues, and those are almost always during work/cash deposits,exc. Those states would have a hard time assigning all visitors with a "during cash deposits" only permit, or arbitrarily saying this person's resident permit allows carry in a restaurant that serves alcohol but this OOS permitee can't. Also look at the fuss made from some of the restrictive states right now. If they can simply relegate/nullify non-resident carry then they wouldn't be making a fuss.
The GOA study doesn't (as of now) allow for much more than statistics. Compiling databases on permit holders personal info would take another act of Congress, something they could potentially do later on with or without 822 as law. Also, the NRA is the one driving this thing. I don't agree with everything the NRA does, but one thing they've been dead set against is any form of registration. Hard to believe they'll all of a sudden allow for a backdoor form of a permit database. That's assuming it's not already there and we just don't know about it.