9mm effectiveness per fbi

Racer Doug14 · Sep 30, 2018

I find the hit percentage having the most to do with lethality. If you have a 15-17 round 9mm. Under stress ,the average is could be 2-4 hits. How many are gonna be fatal? 1 or 2.
Then 40SW has around 12rounds. Down to 2-3 hits and possibly 1 kill shot. 45acp ,say 8. Then maybe 1 hit, with that being least likely a kill.
I'm really just spitballing this. To those that know, is this kinda accurate?

woodline · Sep 30, 2018

Racer Doug14 said:
I find the hit percentage having the most to do with lethality. If you have a 15-17 round 9mm. Under stress ,the average is could be 2-4 hits. How many are gonna be fatal? 1 or 2.
Then 40SW has around 12rounds. Down to 2-3 hits and possibly 1 kill shot. 45acp ,say 8. Then maybe 1 hit, with that being least likely a kill.
I'm really just spitballing this. To those that know, is this kinda accurate?

You aren't guaranteed a "kill shot" with 45, 40, or 9 due to their weak terminal effectiveness (in comparison to centerfire rifle cartridges). Multiple hits to the torso increase likelihood, but still aren't a guarantee. You might have a very slight increase lethality with single hit stops with 45 or 40 over 9, but this would likely be expressed in an increase in probability in the single digits spread across multiple statistically significant examples. Again we are talking 70-90% MISS rates for LEOs across an entire engagement. Some of this can be attributed to poor training, but a lot of it has to do with the degree of difficulty in simultaneously trying to hit a small moving target while simultaneously avoid Innocents, maintain SA for other threats, and avoid getting hit.

You are right about hit percentage being king though. 3-5 hits with 9mm is statistically much more likely to stop a threat than 0-2 hits with 45 or 40.

Not all of this stuff translates well to non LEO lethal engagements. If I recall correctly, armed civilians have much better engagement statistics than LEOs, but they face drastically different engagement models. Comparison does not do much good beyond suggesting that CCW holders are much better positioned to stop threats against their person than LEOs generally are. Which is why the caliber wars don't really matter to us beyond informing us what we already know: we are better off using what we can shoot quickly, accurately, and repeatably than we are getting distracted by the latest and greatest trend in the caliber wars.

spoon059 · Sep 30, 2018

For what its worth, Montgomery County recently switched from Glock 22 to the Glock 17 or 19. We were shooting Federal Hydrashok 40's. We are now shooting Speer Gold Dot G2 9mm. According to our own range, the 9mm G2 outperforms our 40 caliber Hydrashok. There were a couple of reasons that we went to the 9mm that I cannot speak about, but I feel as comfortable with the new 9 as I did with the old 40.

Racer Doug14 · Sep 30, 2018

I was using the MISS rate as the basis. But, only considering handguns. A PCC or rifle caliber would change everything. As far as chances to hit and be fatal. Over penatration and pass through are big drawbacks. But, they don't outweigh putting down the threat.

Zorros · Sep 30, 2018

Racer Doug14 said:
I find the hit percentage having the most to do with lethality. If you have a 15-17 round 9mm. Under stress ,the average is could be 2-4 hits. How many are gonna be fatal? 1 or 2.
Then 40SW has around 12rounds. Down to 2-3 hits and possibly 1 kill shot. 45acp ,say 8. Then maybe 1 hit, with that being least likely a kill.
I'm really just spitballing this. To those that know, is this kinda accurate?

With a pistol your shot must pretty much be central nervous system for immediate incapacitation. Shot in the heart or an artery will kill but when? How long and what can a person dedicated to your harm do in the time it takes to bleed out. Especially if he has a gun. If u believe that a 45, 40, 9 rd are pretty much the same, low shock value, rds, then you might want to put many rds on target until the threat is over. A hi power rifle may donthat in one rd, with 2000+ ft pds. Thus, the “suggestion” from the fbi to use a rd and gun that enables rapid and accurate follow up shots. And you are both probably moving, so its not like standing up at the range with the .44 mag and hitting the x ring at 15 yds.

Racer Doug14 · Sep 30, 2018

spoon059 said:
For what its worth, Montgomery County recently switched from Glock 22 to the Glock 17 or 19. We were shooting Federal Hydrashok 40's. We are now shooting Speer Gold Dot G2 9mm. According to our own range, the 9mm G2 outperforms our 40 caliber Hydrashok. There were a couple of reasons that we went to the 9mm that I cannot speak about, but I feel as comfortable with the new 9 as I did with the old 40.

Do you think you shoot more than your fellow officers? Or about the same?

spoon059 · Sep 30, 2018

TheOriginalMexicanBob said:
When I was a cop, for most of my years I was issued a .38 Special...and I never felt underarmed with it. My attitude was that if I couldn't handle a problem with eighteen rounds (six +two speed loaders), I: 1) couldn't hit what I was aiming at; 2) shooting at someone behind hard over and shouldn't have been shooting in that event; and 3) was in shyte so deep no handgun was going to get me out of it.

God bless you for making it out alive and not being involved in a shooting. But times have GREATLY changed from when 6 shooter .38's were issued. North Hollywood changed the landscape of police involved shootings.

Racer Doug14 · Sep 30, 2018

Zorros said:
With a pistol your shot must pretty much be central nervous system for immediate incapacitation. Shot in the heart or an artery will kill but when? How long and what can a person dedicated to your harm do in the time it takes to bleed out. Especially if he has a gun. If u believe that a 45, 40, 9 rd are pretty much the same, low shock value, rds, then you might want to put many rds on target until the threat is over. A hi power rifle may donthat in one rd, with 2000+ ft pds. Thus, the “suggestion” from the fbi to use a rd and gun that enables rapid and accurate follow up shots. And you are both probably moving, so its not like standing up at the range with the .44 mag and hitting the x ring at 15 yds.

Agree, a rifle is a much better choice. If you have the opportunity to choose. The standard magazine being 30 round gives you the one advantage over a handgun. Terminal ballistics,Sight picture and control too.

Blaster229 · Oct 1, 2018

All of you people are champion self defense shooters. Get you some, killas!

woodline · Oct 2, 2018

Blaster229 said:
All of you people are champion self defense shooters. Get you some, killas!

Can I count overseas engagements or do they have to be tethered to the magical plane of Maryland?

Racer Doug14 · Oct 2, 2018

Blaster229 said:
All of you people are champion self defense shooters. Get you some, killas!

In this state, and I pray I never have to, my only chance is probably gonna be in my home. I will choose the pistol. Too many very important things are there with me. I've pointed loaded weapons at bad guys. I've been very fortunate not to have to pull the trigger. Again, I hope I never have to. I have no bluster or bravado I to want prove. You in LE have a wealth on knowledge and experience to share. But, there is a ton of data to show how the round performs. That round has to hit the mark though. Stress is a bitch. That is the one thing that will affect accuracy most.
Blaster, your remark applies how?

md_al · Oct 2, 2018

Jlowe has a Cassull for sale if .45ACP is not enough.

lazarus · Oct 2, 2018

Racer Doug14 said:
In this state, and I pray I never have to, my only chance is probably gonna be in my home. I will choose the pistol. Too many very important things are there with me. I've pointed loaded weapons at bad guys. I've been very fortunate not to have to pull the trigger. Again, I hope I never have to. I have no bluster or bravado I to want prove. You in LE have a wealth on knowledge and experience to share. But, there is a ton of data to show how the round performs. That round has to hit the mark though. Stress is a bitch. That is the one thing that will affect accuracy most.
Blaster, your remark applies how?

Exactly. The best training I can do is shooting paper. Without being able to draw. I’ve done plenty of hunting. A fair amount of shooting. I know what I am comfortable with and what I think will be the most effective in my hands. My calculus is not everyone’s. I think the best balance for me is a 9mm with a large magazine. That is supposing a shotgun or a rifle isn’t handy.

Especially as mentioned if I am ever using a handgun for self defense it is either in my home or the world is frighten ending. Either one I feel like 9mm is my best option. I can see other options being better under narrow circumstances. If for example I was forbidden from carrying more than 6 rounds...well a .44 mag might be my best bet. If I couldn’t carry more than 10, then I’d probably look at a .45acp or 10mm auto. Or if I might need something with barrier penetration, 10mm, not a second thought. If it couldn’t be a semi-auto, .357.

jimbobborg · Oct 3, 2018

lazarus said:
Exactly. The best training I can do is shooting paper. Without being able to draw.

There are plenty of competitions in the area for you to draw and shoot, I suggest you try them. Aside from being fun, you'll also be shooting multiple targets and shooting while moving.

Zorros · Oct 3, 2018

jimbobborg said:
There are plenty of competitions in the area for you to draw and shoot, I suggest you try them. Aside from being fun, you'll also be shooting multiple targets and shooting while moving.

Some indoor ranges will qualify you for from the holster. Other outdoor ranges are pretty much empty snd you can set up multiple steel and do drills. Once u get basic marksmanship down, shooting at paper targets at 7/15 yds not so interesting. There are trainers with very interesting programs., some programs are designed to safely simulate stress. One is Target Rich in Kent Co.

lazarus · Oct 3, 2018

jimbobborg said:
There are plenty of competitions in the area for you to draw and shoot, I suggest you try them. Aside from being fun, you'll also be shooting multiple targets and shooting while moving.

I just don’t have the spare time with 3 young kids. Just getting to the range I belong to 1-2 times a month for a couple of hours and out hunting a few days a year Usa stretch. At some point I will likely join another range so I can practice from the holster. Best I can do right now is snap caps and practice at home.

EODJoe · Oct 3, 2018

The reality of any self-defense shooting being more holes in the body equals more blood outside of the body. More blood outside of the body equals faster end to the situation. The single greatest gun in the world is the one you have in your hand when you need it the most. If a Nerf gun to the eye stops a bad guy from doing a bad thing then that is the best f*&!ing gun on the planet for the shooter at that time. Pick what you're comfortable with and train with it. Often.

zach5963 · Oct 3, 2018

I’ve heard of this recently. To me it makes sense. I’m hearing from other LEO’s that MSP could translation. Could being the key word. From a personal perspective the 9mm is lighter and more accurate to me. More and more people seem to be choosing them over a 40mm or 45mm.
Just my opinion.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

40rules · Oct 3, 2018

Carry what you like

Let me start by saying that this is just my thought process. Not meant to offend. That being said;
You guys have to know that the government ALL WAYS goes with the cheapest or lowest bidder.
The bare minimum that gets the job done Will get the contract every time. My life is worth more than the bare minimum.
The lives of my wife and children are well worth the extra 3 dollars a box for 40.
I have seen waaaay to many police shoot outs where the "trained" police officer dumps his entire wonder Glock 9 mag into the air and never lands a round.Therefore the " my nine holds a jillion rounds" holds zero weight with me. I train regularly with my 40's and feel confident that I can land as many on the zero as you can with your 9.
As far as the whole "your forty will wear out faster" and by the way my 9 with + P ammo is almost just as hot, Is a contradiction as well. You really think shooting the hottest 9 rounds you can get are easier on your gun than standard 40? If you (although you won't admit it) are so underwhelmed with your 9 that you push the plus or even +P+ through your gun, why not just carry what you know you want, a 40. With all the +P ammo you know you're reaching for more power. We're all underarmed anyway (unless you carry a 12 gauge)so why handicapp yourself even more for the sake of 3 extra rounds you're not going to get off anyway or to save 3 bucks a box?
Lets remember why we carry. If it comes down to the moment of truth, do you want the cheapest, bare minimum that SHOULD do the job? Not me my friends.

Racer Doug14 · Oct 3, 2018

40rules said:
Let me start by saying that this is just my thought process. Not meant to offend. That being said;
You guys have to know that the government ALL WAYS goes with the cheapest or lowest bidder.
The bare minimum that gets the job done Will get the contract every time. My life is worth more than the bare minimum.
The lives of my wife and children are well worth the extra 3 dollars a box for 40.
I have seen waaaay to many police shoot outs where the "trained" police officer dumps his entire wonder Glock 9 mag into the air and never lands a round.Therefore the " my nine holds a jillion rounds" holds zero weight with me. I train regularly with my 40's and feel confident that I can land as many on the zero as you can with your 9.
As far as the whole "your forty will wear out faster" and by the way my 9 with + P ammo is almost just as hot, Is a contradiction as well. You really think shooting the hottest 9 rounds you can get are easier on your gun than standard 40? If you (although you won't admit it) are so underwhelmed with your 9 that you push the plus or even +P+ through your gun, why not just carry what you know you want, a 40. With all the +P ammo you know you're reaching for more power. We're all underarmed anyway (unless you carry a 12 gauge)so why handicapp yourself even more for the sake of 3 extra rounds you're not going to get off anyway or to save 3 bucks a box?
Lets remember why we carry. If it comes down to the moment of truth, do you want the cheapest, bare minimum that SHOULD do the job? Not me my friends.

Come on, you know you want 10mm.

JK.

9mm effectiveness per fbi

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