WaPo analysis on gun sales & crime is a crock...

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  • TheOriginalMexicanBob

    Ultimate Member
    Jul 2, 2017
    32,177
    Sun City West, AZ
    In today's Washington Post (WaPo, Commie Post or ComPost) is an "analysis" of gun sales and violent crime spikes https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/15/gun-sales-jump-protests-coronavirus/. It's a crock of BS from any cursory reading and thought. The author of the piece at least offers a disclaimer of the Brookings Institute study by stating "The authors caution that a study of this nature cannot prove causality, particularly at a time of massive social upheaval in a country dealing with an unprecedented public health crisis as well as a nationwide protest movement."

    The apparent conclusion that the rise in firearms purchases and racial animus is behind the spike in violent crime is spurious...the rise in firearms purchases are a reaction to the spike in violent crime and civil unrest. When people feel threatened...whether conservative or liberal...they look for ways to defend themselves when law enforcement is either occupied elsewhere or retrenching due to political orders.

    Nowhere...nowhere...has there been any reports I've seen that anyone going out and buying defensive firearms has been going out and committing crimes with those firearms. The firearms being purchased are defensive in nature and are being held in reserve just in case they're needed.

    I'm certain that the firearms used in the spikes in crime were and are existing firearms...whether obtained legally or illegally...and I suspect illegally is the most likely source for them.

    While I don't expect much in the way of accuracy from the ComPost this is simply a hit job to support the Post's longtime animus towards firearms and firearms owners in general much less an honest and objective analysis.

    The tagline on the Post's front page under their banner is "Democracy Dies in Darkness". What they don't say is that it's the Post itself that brings the darkness.

    Rant over...carry on.
     

    tallen702

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 3, 2012
    5,102
    In the boonies of MoCo
    My guess is that they're doing a hit piece like this in response to the USA Today article citing correlation between increased ownership and an overall decrease in violent crime prior to the Marxist riots we've seen this past month.
     

    nedsurf

    Ultimate Member
    Feb 8, 2013
    2,204
    This is simple causal inference to refute. The ATF will almost always do a trace of firearms recovered from crime scenes during this "spike in violent crime". The "rise in gun buying" claim is from the increase in NICS checks. The question that will deflate this claim is " What percentage of recovered firearms from the "spike in violent crime" are also from the "rise in gun buying"?"
     

    gremlin42

    Active Member
    Apr 16, 2020
    696
    variable
    almost no criminal gun violence involves legally obtained registered firearms by law abiding people. This is something that’s important to understand and changed my views on gun laws years ago. I recall an essay by Sam Harris where he mentioned that ccw permit holders commit crime at even lower rates than police. I think the general public is coming around (there’s a surge in liberal gun owner groups on reddit for example) but the media establishment remains hopelessly out of touch and they’re still regurgitating talking points from the 90s.
     

    Kalinka63

    Dieu et mon droit
    Sometimes news organizations set new standards in how to interpret data without regard to common sense. From that article:

    "The research suggests that at least some of the spike in gun purchases is driven by racist beliefs and attitudes among white Americans."

    Understand that NOWHERE in the article is data on gun purchases broken down by race, thus ignoring concerns by ALL Americans, regardless of race or ethnicity, about what to do should police not be able to adequately protect the citizenry. The Washington Post, "Pravda on the Potomac" as we called it in the 1970s and 1980s, should be ashamed to publish such opinion pieces masquerading as factual journalism.
     

    jcutonilli

    Ultimate Member
    Mar 28, 2013
    2,474
    In today's Washington Post (WaPo, Commie Post or ComPost) is an "analysis" of gun sales and violent crime spikes https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/15/gun-sales-jump-protests-coronavirus/. It's a crock of BS from any cursory reading and thought. The author of the piece at least offers a disclaimer of the Brookings Institute study by stating "The authors caution that a study of this nature cannot prove causality, particularly at a time of massive social upheaval in a country dealing with an unprecedented public health crisis as well as a nationwide protest movement."

    The apparent conclusion that the rise in firearms purchases and racial animus is behind the spike in violent crime is spurious...the rise in firearms purchases are a reaction to the spike in violent crime and civil unrest. When people feel threatened...whether conservative or liberal...they look for ways to defend themselves when law enforcement is either occupied elsewhere or retrenching due to political orders.

    Nowhere...nowhere...has there been any reports I've seen that anyone going out and buying defensive firearms has been going out and committing crimes with those firearms. The firearms being purchased are defensive in nature and are being held in reserve just in case they're needed.

    I'm certain that the firearms used in the spikes in crime were and are existing firearms...whether obtained legally or illegally...and I suspect illegally is the most likely source for them.

    While I don't expect much in the way of accuracy from the ComPost this is simply a hit job to support the Post's longtime animus towards firearms and firearms owners in general much less an honest and objective analysis.

    The tagline on the Post's front page under their banner is "Democracy Dies in Darkness". What they don't say is that it's the Post itself that brings the darkness.

    Rant over...carry on.

    I am not sure what you think is different about this study. Pretty much every study they do demonstrates some kind of correlation. What is missing from every one of these studies is the lack of causality. All that really needs to be said is that correlation is not causation. The study readily acknowledges this.
     

    grimnar15

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Jul 21, 2019
    1,645
    Should read: Spike in gun-buying follows rise in violence and lawlessness.
     

    davsco

    Ultimate Member
    Oct 21, 2010
    8,607
    Loudoun, VA
    Should read: Spike in gun-buying follows rise in violence and lawlessness.

    yes!

    i'd love to see a chart one of these decades that shows:
    crime committed by felons (ie light or no sentences and let out of jail way too early).
    black on black crime
    black on white crime
    blacks, not resisting arrest, shot by cops

    let's call all this sh1t what it is and put an end to it one way or another.
     

    Uncle Duke

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Feb 2, 2013
    11,666
    Not Far Enough from the City
    That number won't be showed. Or allowed to be showed.

    Nor will they show numbers for recidivism related to the thousands of Covid related prison releases of known violent and repeat offenders.

    Nor will they show the numbers related to criminals being emboldened by the ordering of police standdowns, and the purposeful and systematic neutering and demoralization of police departments occurring nationwide.

    Nor will they show the numbers associated with the increasingly pervasive practices of nolo prosequi, and catch and release, being employed in cities suffering the scourge of liberalism and Marxism all across this country.

    You know why more people are buying guns WAPO? Because most people aren't blind. And because many have seen sufficient evidence to think that NO ONE can or will defend their own personal well being, faster or better or with greater urgency than they will.
     

    Bob A

    όυ φροντισ
    MDS Supporter
    Patriot Picket
    Nov 11, 2009
    30,690
    Should read: Spike in gun-buying follows rise in violence and lawlessness.

    No, not quite like that.

    The spike in gun buying follows the rise in media fear-mongering in response to such things as violent felons being released from prison due to WuFlu concerns, or riots in selected cities.

    It's driven almost exclusively on the perception of danger, rather than the actuality of increased risk. That's why the now one-sided media is so important. Being inundated by fiercely biased data output, people respond according to their input.

    Watch enough youtube violence and you'll start getting symptoms of PTSD. Now imagine what a steady diet of bad news is doing to the consumers of information.

    It's not merely street violence, SJW shaming/canceling; don't forget every mention of Trump is negative, every mention of WuFlu indicative of our early death. WuFlu cases are increasing? Well, that's because testing is increasing. The flu is progressing according to its own timeline, but our response is flawed because our data is flawed, and the reporting of that data is deliberately extremely negatively biased.
     

    JohnnyE

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Jan 18, 2013
    9,462
    MoCo
    Boy oh boy, "confusion" in the article over the issue of correlation versus causation. You have to read more than half way through the article before you see, "(t)he authors caution that a study of this nature cannot prove causality...". Go figure.

    Sensationalism yet again.
     

    press1280

    Ultimate Member
    Jun 11, 2010
    7,878
    WV
    Wonder how they'll explain the rise in NYC shootings considering it takes 9 months (pre-Covid/Floyd/exc) to get a gun in NYC. With a billion being cut from the NYPD I'm sure it'll take at least a year to get a gun with reduced staffing.
     

    Occam

    Not Even ONE Indictment
    MDS Supporter
    Feb 24, 2018
    20,239
    Montgomery County
    Who would believe anything in the Washington Post?

    I know plenty of people who see it as “the newspaper.” Just like following an hour of CNN, they fell as though they’ve “watched the news.” A lifetime of conditioning suppresses critical thinking, and causes deep discomfort if The News strays from the familiar narrative.
     

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