Patrick
MSI Executive Member
Glad to hear Chester now has mention in the MSJ.
Glad to hear the 3-7-11 date has been set. Not too far away, not at all.
At this point, am I correct in saying that there should be a reply from the defendants by 3-7-11? Something? Even if it's incoherent?
Then looking forward, it's reasonable and expected that the Honorable Judge Motz could take 2 to 3 months to issue his decision? June-ish?
Maryland is likely to request an extension. We are more likely to see a response by mid or late month. It is generally the case that the SAF willingly accepts the extension requests, but in this case they could do what they did in Chicago and declare "Enough". It comes down to the SAF schedule. The SAF is real busy right now. They might welcome a few weeks worth of delay.
Maryland has avoided the fight entirely. Now they need to actually defend.
If Maryland again responds with the same tired arguments over standing, this case is over. They will be non-responsive. All they could do is hope the Fourth Circuit would take their case on appeal - and continue to argue the standing and abstention issues. But the Fourth has been clear on some of them already. The appeals court would probably deny review, or maybe even take it to end the argument entirely.
But I don't think any of that will happen. Whatever Maryland thinks its defense might be, it has been holding it back.
If history is to be repeated, they will go for more delaying tactics. Don't be surprised to see the words "limited discovery" in their response. The judge shut down one avenue for discovery (by saying the SAF standing issue is not an issue). They could try to perform discovery revolving around Woollard's "cause", but the SAF would oppose on the grounds that Woollard is challenging the constitutional basis of that law - not how it was interpreted in his case. No...the best shot they have to delay is to attempt some sort of fact-finding vis a vis the 14th Amendment claim. But even that would be weak sauce.
So they might attempt to avoid the argument yet again. But that is highly risky at this juncture. There is another strong MSJ on the table and the case has wore on since last July with still no real response from Maryland on the constitutional issues. They did put forth an affirmative defense in their last reply, which most of us saw as delaying action. Maryland runs the risk that the District Court accepts their last affirmative defense as the defense and rules against their next delay attempts. He could presumably rule on the MSJ at any point.
I think Maryland has to throw it all out there right now: argue their true defense while also asking for more delaying tactics. The SAF will use any request for more games as a foil to demand immediate judgment. Maryland really needs to do something this round or risk losing by being non-responsive (though technically they did respond last time - it's just those argument sucked).
Anyone care to guess what they will argue - other than the 2A Two Step?
Almost surely we are looking at Maryland responding with a Motion to Dismiss. They will not be asking for summary judgment on merits they propose. That would call for immediate judgment.