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Old January 15th, 2022, 06:15 PM #221
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Originally Posted by delaware_export View Post
I too am wondering how the scotus mandate breakdown will effect the gun case.

6/3 5/4 in favor of the 2a. But what level of clarity/firmness of ruling
4/2/3 some weak knee “compromise”
4/5 2a loss because 4 wanted a very strong pro 2a ruling and overplayed and 2 go anti

About 5 months until we get the real ruling
JMHO

It will be a narrow ruling probably 6-3.

Two main things will come out of it.

1. They will rule that Self Defense is the only reason needed to obtain a permit or license. No other need will be required.

They won’t rule or comment on other requirements of a permit such as training and BG checks.

2. They will make comment on the level of scrutiny to be used going forward. Strict scrutiny, or that in combination with text, tradition and history.

Because of Young V Hawaii being put on hold. Comment will be made in regards to conceal/open carry. Might be said in this case, or used in conjunction with Young v Hawaii in a per curium opinion.

MHO, SCOTUS will give a state the option for open or concealed as a shall issue, but won’t require the state to do both. Allowing a state to either issue permits for OC or CC if they choose.

I think the other cases they have put on hold such as the magazine ban, and AWB will be decided per Curium based on what their opinion was in this case on the level of scrutiny.

Some pessimists here want to say we haven’t won a thing and we will come out losers. But I doubt that based on other very conservative opinions they have done so far. Such as hold up Texas abortion law so far.

Will it be 6-3 or 5-4 who knows.

If you go listen to the arguments, what was asked, and comments made. We are looking good.
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Old January 15th, 2022, 06:21 PM #222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texasgrillchef View Post
JMHO

It will be a narrow ruling probably 6-3.

Two main things will come out of it.

1. They will rule that Self Defense is the only reason needed to obtain a permit or license. No other need will be required.

They wonít rule or comment on other requirements of a permit such as training and BG checks.

2. They will make comment on the level of scrutiny to be used going forward. Strict scrutiny, or that in combination with text, tradition and history.

Because of Young V Hawaii being put on hold. Comment will be made in regards to conceal/open carry. Might be said in this case, or used in conjunction with Young v Hawaii in a per curium opinion.

MHO, SCOTUS will give a state the option for open or concealed as a shall issue, but wonít require the state to do both. Allowing a state to either issue permits for OC or CC if they choose.

I think the other cases they have put on hold such as the magazine ban, and AWB will be decided per Curium based on what their opinion was in this case on the level of scrutiny.

Some pessimists here want to say we havenít won a thing and we will come out losers. But I doubt that based on other very conservative opinions they have done so far. Such as hold up Texas abortion law so far.

Will it be 6-3 or 5-4 who knows.

If you go listen to the arguments, what was asked, and comments made. We are looking good.

Very optimistic, but I hope you are right.
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Old January 15th, 2022, 06:55 PM #223
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Originally Posted by Batt816 View Post
Very optimistic, but I hope you are right.
Me tooÖ.

But I have been pretty much on target with how they have ruled on some of their cases this year allready. Maybe not so much the details. But I pretty much figured they would rule against osha, and for HHS on mask mandates, I figured they would leave Texas abortion bill intact. Same thing on a few of their other cases. I havenít been surprised yet this year.

They are pretty much on target doing the ultra conservative thing with their cases.

I really doubt that they will do anything radical when it comes to firearms, in either direction.

They could have easily denied cert and let NY have its way. But they didnít. They took the case.

There are more good signs in our favor then bad signs.
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