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Old March 27th, 2020, 10:01 AM #81
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And the US now has the highest number of confirmed cases on the planet. It's just the flu. Buttheads.
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Old March 27th, 2020, 10:02 AM #82
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In 60 days we are all dead? I guess I'd rather die in 12 years from global warming. If we are all dying in 60 days who wants to buy some ammo?
No. Itíll slow down once enough people have gotten sick. But itíll likely kill between 1 in 10 and 1 in 20 Americans.
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Old March 27th, 2020, 10:05 AM #83
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My core metrics as to whether a healthcare collapse has /will occur have always included :
1. More than one person per vent
2. No hospital overflows in a major way.

These two are being breached right now. It's just a flu. Buttheads.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronaviru...548c2ae28.html
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Old March 27th, 2020, 12:19 PM #84
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No, they donít always. Flu doesnít. It periodically resurfaced as much more deadly.

Smallpox didnít until we developed a vaccine and eliminated it.

1967 before it was eliminated there were an estimated 15 million world wide infections and 2 million deaths. For a virus that had been with us for at least a thousand years.

SARS-CoV-2 is likely to be with us for the long haul.

Smallpox never mutated to be less virulent or deadly.

The estimate by people whoís job this actually is estimate 60-70% of the people in the world will contract this if we do nothing within 1 year.

We are already past 300 yesterday from 200 the day before. We arenít remotely near a peak. Background infections rates once most people have contracted it would likely remain in the tens of thousands per day with thousands dying per day in the US without treatment.

Thatís months after we pass hundreds of thousands dying per day at its peak if it really bad. Even if it is on the lowest end of estimates itíll be tens of thousands per day dying.

Hmm

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In 1967, there were around 10Ė15 million cases of smallpox in the world each year, a figure which had dropped from around 50 million cases a year in the 1950s.
But go on, feed the panic.

I prefer to make people concerned, but not panicked.
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Old March 27th, 2020, 01:12 PM #85
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Hmm



But go on, feed the panic.

I prefer to make people concerned, but not panicked.
You realize it had dropped because there was wide spread immunization in place by 1967. Not because it mutates or something like that.

It was killing nearly 10 million a year in the 50s

And this was a disease there was some innate immunity to because it had been with us so long. We have no innate immunity to SARS-CoV-2. And no evidence any immunity will last (coronaviri we are familiar with, humans donít have long lasting immunity, usually only a few months).
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Old March 27th, 2020, 02:31 PM #86
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You realize it had dropped because there was wide spread immunization in place by 1967. Not because it mutates or something like that.

It was killing nearly 10 million a year in the 50s

And this was a disease there was some innate immunity to because it had been with us so long. We have no innate immunity to SARS-CoV-2. And no evidence any immunity will last (coronaviri we are familiar with, humans don’t have long lasting immunity, usually only a few months).
Good points. If I remember correct Sars2 the Sequel is the 7th member of the human-infecting corona virus and none of them offer lifelong sterilizing immunity (such as measles, small pox, polio etc).

As I mentioned earlier I'm an infectious disease researcher and as new as I am to firearms this is what I do for a living.

These are the ways we combat the virus:
Work on a therapy, akin to tamiflu. There are dozens of clinical trials across the world happening right now. Hydrochloroquine, Azithromycin, Remdesivir are the headliners but there are numerous other compounds being screened. Months to a year away assuming a compound already available shows a benefit. I.e. if hydrochloroquine and Azith show effectiveness these will roll out immediately, as the FDA has already approved them. A novel compound would take years before approval, unless the FDA completely ignores established protocol.

Work on a vaccine, will likely become part of seasonal vaccination for high risk individuals (like the pneumococcal vaccine that elderly need). Unfortunately, this is 18-24 months at best before its rolled out. Additionally, we don't know how long this immunity will last.

We socially distance ourselves and gradually relax quarantine rules. If an outbreak pops up again, we quickly restrict, test and trace individuals. For example, by the fall if Cov2 has tapered off in the US- we get back to work. If this pops up in another country we block access of people and quarantine repatriated people. If it pops up in a state, we go back into quarantine immediately.

We hope that the virus begins to adapt to humans and become less virulent, akin to the 1918 pandemic influenza. Many times when a virus enters a novel population the first round of infections are incredibly lethal (Ebola, Sars1, Avian Influenza, dozens of examples in animals, etc). As the virus mutates, as many do, it becomes less virulent. If you're a virus you want to infect and impact the host the least possible. This allows maximum transmission. An example would be the common cold viruses. How many of us get a cold and we still go to work and spread it? Common cold is in my opinion a very successful virus.

Basically, everyone get ready for a couple more months of quarantine and let's hope our hospitals can keep up. This is going to dramatically transform many aspects of life.
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Old March 27th, 2020, 04:19 PM #87
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GOOD LUCK WITH WHATEVER YOU DO AND HOWEVER YOU DO IT!)

Just please, don't go postal..

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Old March 27th, 2020, 04:23 PM #88
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Even so, you should also wash your hands frequently, just in case one of those buggers made it!)
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Old March 27th, 2020, 08:32 PM #89
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Hmm



But go on, feed the panic.

I prefer to make people concerned, but not panicked.
You're wasting your time dude. You cannot reason with people in a profound state of panic.

There will be MILLIONS dead within days!! It's the Rapture!! It's the end of days!!!
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Old March 27th, 2020, 08:43 PM #90
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I'm not worried about millions dying. I'm worried about the couple dozen or so I really care about. It is the end of days for the people who die. It's kinda like one of my teacher's once said about unemployment: It doesn't matter if the unemployment rate is 1% or 10%. If you're the one without a job, it's 100%.
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