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Old March 26th, 2020, 04:12 PM #71
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Originally Posted by JohnC View Post
Editing to put this in here. I want to be wrong about this, I hope in a month or two that the people I've talked to can throw it right back in my face and say "Ha I told you so!" That would mean that the preparedness we all took worked incredibly well.


I'm praying for this.
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Old March 26th, 2020, 04:30 PM #72
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The NYT said the trailers were provided by FEMA. Maybe they were rented from Penske. So what?

Guess I'll go to a big party, shake lots of hands, get drunk and drive home on the wrong side of the Beltway. Why not? After all, the trailers didn't come from FEMA.
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Old March 26th, 2020, 05:25 PM #73
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Originally Posted by Pinecone View Post
And all diseases run their course. They peak and then tail off. You will not have 200 a day for a year.



But you do have about 650,000 heart disease deaths per year, and 599,000 cancer deaths per year.



Viruses typically, over the long term, mutate to be less virulent.

So we should have waited out polio or smallpox instead of developed vaccines for them because they'll eventually be less virulent? They were tailing off on their own? You realize that this often takes hundreds of years. Smallpox killed something 300 million in a century when the world was less crowded. You have a series of poorly informed posts on this topic.
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Old March 26th, 2020, 05:30 PM #74
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The PV has infected many!

We're having a little cook out at the moment.
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Old March 26th, 2020, 07:12 PM #75
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Originally Posted by Pinecone View Post
Wrong.

FEMA is NOT involved.

NYC brought in some refrigerated trailers handle the bodies. But that is local, not a national response.
I think the bigger issue is that refrigerated trailers are being brought in to handle the bodies, not necessarily the name on the side of said trailers.
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Old March 27th, 2020, 08:13 AM #76
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So we should have waited out polio or smallpox instead of developed vaccines for them because they'll eventually be less virulent? They were tailing off on their own? You realize that this often takes hundreds of years. Smallpox killed something 300 million in a century when the world was less crowded. You have a series of poorly informed posts on this topic.
Who said anything about not developing a vaccine?????

I am just pointing out, that this is nowhere near common things that kill hundreds or thousands of people every day in the US, that people are not panicked about.

I am against the PANIC. Not against taking precautions and working on a vaccine or drug regime to mitigate this virus.
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Old March 27th, 2020, 08:17 AM #77
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I think the bigger issue is that refrigerated trailers are being brought in to handle the bodies, not necessarily the name on the side of said trailers.
So spreading false news is OK if it occurs on MDS?

But not quite sure why they need them, as only 365 people have died in NYC.

Since more than 100 people die of heart disease every day in NYC (44,000 per year). Or cancer (about 35,000 per year). Top ten causes total about 344 deaths per DAY in NYC.
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Old March 27th, 2020, 08:22 AM #78
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Exactly. And car accidents stay flat in death rate. This is going up. Doubling every 3 days. NYC in just the last couple have started to flatten their curve. Which doesnít mean the death rate is dropping. It just isnít climbing as fast. They are doubling about every 4 days now.

That means the 200 people who died in the US yesterday from it, which is >70,000 in a year BTW at that rate (a lot more than auto accidents) will be 400 a day in about 3-4 days. Thatís 140,000 a year.

In a week from today thatíll be about 800-1000 a day. Thatís more than alcohol, car accidents, murders and cancer put together. Note than medical mistakes even.

2 weeks from now itíll be about 5000 per day. 3 weeks from today we hit about 20,000 a day.

We reach COVID-19 killing more people per day in the US than all causes of death in roughly 15-20 days depending on if the death rate flattens or not.

Exponential math is a B and I think something a lot of people donít understand. Also your odds of getting infected donít match how many are diagnosed. Right now many people are not getting tested or even if they do, there is more than a week lag time between them being infectious and being diagnosed in most cases (or longer if they are not being diagnosed until they show up in a hospital).

At its rate of expansion your odds of contracting it double every 3 days. That also doesnít take long to go from ďremoteĒ to ďnear certaintyĒ if you are not isolating yourself and taking lots of precautions.

In 60 days we are all dead? I guess I'd rather die in 12 years from global warming. If we are all dying in 60 days who wants to buy some ammo?
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Old March 27th, 2020, 09:55 AM #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinecone View Post
And all diseases run their course. They peak and then tail off. You will not have 200 a day for a year.

But you do have about 650,000 heart disease deaths per year, and 599,000 cancer deaths per year.

Viruses typically, over the long term, mutate to be less virulent.
No, they donít always. Flu doesnít. It periodically resurfaced as much more deadly.

Smallpox didnít until we developed a vaccine and eliminated it.

1967 before it was eliminated there were an estimated 15 million world wide infections and 2 million deaths. For a virus that had been with us for at least a thousand years.

SARS-CoV-2 is likely to be with us for the long haul.

Smallpox never mutated to be less virulent or deadly.

The estimate by people whoís job this actually is estimate 60-70% of the people in the world will contract this if we do nothing within 1 year.

We are already past 300 yesterday from 200 the day before. We arenít remotely near a peak. Background infections rates once most people have contracted it would likely remain in the tens of thousands per day with thousands dying per day in the US without treatment.

Thatís months after we pass hundreds of thousands dying per day at its peak if it really bad. Even if it is on the lowest end of estimates itíll be tens of thousands per day dying.
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Old March 27th, 2020, 10:00 AM #80
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So spreading false news is OK if it occurs on MDS?

But not quite sure why they need them, as only 365 people have died in NYC.

Since more than 100 people die of heart disease every day in NYC (44,000 per year). Or cancer (about 35,000 per year). Top ten causes total about 344 deaths per DAY in NYC.
Because I think as a lot of people will repeat, you donít know how to do math.

It was at 365 yesterday at 5pm. That was after 88 died in a day.

In 3 days itíll likely be going up by about 200 per day. 3-4 days later 400 a day.

If people donít actually pull out the stops to slow or break the chain of infections it will continue to go up at an exponential rate until a sufficient number of people have recovered and are immune (supposing immunity is long lasting and we donít know that it will be. Some viral infections your immune response is weak, just months after the original infection). Thatís going to take about 20% of the population having been infected to start making any real dent in the rate of infections.

Itís called been prepared. They know theyíll need a place to put all the bodies in a few days. Most hospital morgues canít handle 100 bodies.

Most people dying of heart disease arenít doing it in a hospital. Funeral homes comes and collects the body. Canít do that with this.
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