Postal Concerns

[Jake4U]

Buttheads.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...b2QXrTviSqBqKA

[Threeband]

I don't see anyone panicking here.

There's a discussion of how to take prudent precautions.

This virus presents threat scenarios far more likely than many discussed in this forum over the years, a forum of men who are armed to the teeth with defensive firearms.

No one is panicking.

[lazarus]

Originally Posted by JohnC

Good points. If I remember correct Sars2 the Sequel is the 7th member of the human-infecting corona virus and none of them offer lifelong sterilizing immunity (such as measles, small pox, polio etc).

As I mentioned earlier I'm an infectious disease researcher and as new as I am to firearms this is what I do for a living.

These are the ways we combat the virus:
Work on a therapy, akin to tamiflu. There are dozens of clinical trials across the world happening right now. Hydrochloroquine, Azithromycin, Remdesivir are the headliners but there are numerous other compounds being screened. Months to a year away assuming a compound already available shows a benefit. I.e. if hydrochloroquine and Azith show effectiveness these will roll out immediately, as the FDA has already approved them. A novel compound would take years before approval, unless the FDA completely ignores established protocol.

Work on a vaccine, will likely become part of seasonal vaccination for high risk individuals (like the pneumococcal vaccine that elderly need). Unfortunately, this is 18-24 months at best before its rolled out. Additionally, we don't know how long this immunity will last.

We socially distance ourselves and gradually relax quarantine rules. If an outbreak pops up again, we quickly restrict, test and trace individuals. For example, by the fall if Cov2 has tapered off in the US- we get back to work. If this pops up in another country we block access of people and quarantine repatriated people. If it pops up in a state, we go back into quarantine immediately.

We hope that the virus begins to adapt to humans and become less virulent, akin to the 1918 pandemic influenza. Many times when a virus enters a novel population the first round of infections are incredibly lethal (Ebola, Sars1, Avian Influenza, dozens of examples in animals, etc). As the virus mutates, as many do, it becomes less virulent. If you're a virus you want to infect and impact the host the least possible. This allows maximum transmission. An example would be the common cold viruses. How many of us get a cold and we still go to work and spread it? Common cold is in my opinion a very successful virus.

Basically, everyone get ready for a couple more months of quarantine and let's hope our hospitals can keep up. This is going to dramatically transform many aspects of life.

There generally has to be a selective pressure to make it less deadly though. A less virulent mutation allows it to spread more easily for some reason so it doesn’t get eradicated, but the mire virulent strain does. And of course there can be multiple circulating strains.

So far SARS-CoV-2 has shown itself plenty easily to spread around and its mutating at about half the rate influenza is. So at best it’s likely to be a few years before it would mutate in to something less deadly. But that isn’t guaranteed it might be mire deadly. Or it might be more easily transmissible and no less deadly.

[lazarus]

Originally Posted by Threeband

I don't see anyone panicking here.

There's a discussion of how to take prudent precautions.

This virus presents threat scenarios far more likely than many discussed in this forum over the years, a forum of men who are armed to the teeth with defensive firearms.

No one is panicking.

Only panic I suffer is at the disco. I am highly concerned and believe this will be very bad.

[Threeband]

I'm concerned enough to hunker down with my wife, food supply, toilet paper and c. 35,000 rounds of ammo...

Not sure when I'll go back to work.

[Hansum]

OP, not a bad idea if you're in the high risk group. Love the comments from the "oh I'm carrying on living my life" folks. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think you'll be saying that shit for long.

Sent from my LM-G710VM using Tapatalk

[fidelity]

Originally Posted by lazarus

There generally has to be a selective pressure to make it less deadly though. A less virulent mutation allows it to spread more easily for some reason so it doesn’t get eradicated, but the mire virulent strain does. And of course there can be multiple circulating strains.



So far SARS-CoV-2 has shown itself plenty easily to spread around and its mutating at about half the rate influenza is. So at best it’s likely to be a few years before it would mutate in to something less deadly. But that isn’t guaranteed it might be mire deadly. Or it might be more easily transmissible and no less deadly.

Yep, the time scale for lesser virulence to dominate an evolutionary landscape can be significant. Retroviral endogenization took millions of years (in classically studied examples) and it occurs over the course of an evolutionary arms race with host responses. Fast killing viruses are disfavored as they self limit their spread (and often the host is obviously sick so other potential hosts know to be careful).

This virus is like a tuned down SARS-CoV which helps expand its reach. It comes from the same reservoir of bats, and appears to have picked up sequences from a coronavirus in pangolins. Symptoms don't manifest immediately and it kills less than SARS-CoV, in or above the range of the deadly pandemic flu many have feared would eventually hit the world again.

For SARS-CoV-2 to be outcompeted by a less virulent form, a less virulent form would have to emerge that spreads more efficiently and potentially gives direct infection resistance to SARS-CoV-2 or induces a crossneutralizing immune response. Otherwise there's nothing to make the more pathogenic form disappear. Alternatively, SARS-CoV-2 has to sweep the planet and kill so many hosts that it starts limiting its own spread and a less pathogenic form is more successful in spreading because it doesn't eliminate its host pool. These things take time and significant carnage.

With flu, we've been vaccinating against H1N1 for years. We are inducing the selective tools in our bodies to limit the virus's spread.

[K31]

Originally Posted by Jake4U

Buttheads.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...b2QXrTviSqBqKA

Advanced directives was something I was thinking about while reading this thread the other day.

People that don't want to take precautions should sign one now so they don't take equipment from others it might save, don't expose first responders, doctors, nursing staff and don't waste masks, gloves, etc., in short supply.

The fact that doctors are openly discussing a policy like the one cited makes me believe that they believe this is a far greater problem than the flu.

[Pinecone]

Originally Posted by Art3

I'm not worried about millions dying. I'm worried about the couple dozen or so I really care about. It is the end of days for the people who die. It's kinda like one of my teacher's once said about unemployment: It doesn't matter if the unemployment rate is 1% or 10%. If you're the one without a job, it's 100%.

All the precautions are not to stop the spread. Just slow it down. To spread out the load on the health care system.

Interesting points in this article:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...6sh_-vocAhJvt4

The US, China, and Italy (in that order) have the highest number of coronavirus cases in the world.

But comparing the number of cases per million residents tells a different story about which countries are hardest hit by the pandemic.

Switzerland has the highest number of COVID-19 cases per capita — 1,340 cases per million people —followed by Spain and Italy.

The number of US coronavirus cases per capita is far lower: about 210 people are infected per million Americans.

[Alea Jacta Est]

Originally Posted by Threeband

I'm concerned enough to hunker down with my wife, food supply, toilet paper and c. 35,000 rounds of ammo...

Not sure when I'll go back to work.

That number is just your .22 supply, right???

:-)