CCW shooters vs police.

danb · Jan 5, 2018

Number of people shot by police over 1 year: 987

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...e-644am:homepage/story&utm_term=.f5edaf920814

Number of police (sworn personnel): about 800,000 (last survey available is 2008 though). https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=dcdetail&iid=249#Publications_and_products

Number of people shot by CCW holders: 1,119, since 2007, or about 120 per year. http://concealedcarrykillers.org/ VPC is an anti-gun .org so this is likely inflated (for example they include Navy Yard shooting here)

Number of CCW holders: about ~~1.7~~ 14.5 million. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2814691 this is an understatement since some states are permitless carry now.

Police are ~~20x~~ 200x more likely to kill someone than a CCW holder. The police are also 2x more deadly than Baltimore thugs. The obvious conclusion: disarm the police and only residents should carry guns. At the very least, police should get the same training CCW holders do, I recommend Texas or Utah style class. /sarcasm

ETA: updated with corrected numbers

Glaron · Jan 5, 2018

Police deliberately go to dangerous situations.

The typical isnt doing that.

Not a good way to compare.

davsco · Jan 5, 2018

the ccw # is purported to just be non-self defense shootings by folks with carry permits, where they somehow weed out all the justified ccw shootings. yeah a 100-something bad shoots a year vs a million plus ccw holders doesn't seem to be very statistically significant. how many non-permit holders kill or maim or "just" threaten annually in non-self defense scenarios, surely WAY more than that.

frankly i don't even believe the 100-something a year number, but even with that it's WAY less than the 'blood on the streets' cries when ccw was coming into vogue.

danb · Jan 5, 2018

Glaron said:
Police deliberately go to dangerous situations.

The typical isnt doing that.

Not a good way to compare.

According to legend, CCW holders are armed and looking for a western style gunfight, seeking out dangerous situations. Virginia is the Wild West!!!!

also, you probably missed the /sarcasm

davsco · Jan 5, 2018

and the other things is, how many lives are saved annually by folks with ccw permits? that certainly should be used to reduce the #'s they're showing for bad shoots. and surely just the presence of a gun may deter a lot of crimes and those stats aren't reported but should be used to further net out the bad shoots. the nra magazine has what, a dozen instances each month where a gun saved a life, so that's over 100/year right there.

Alea Jacta Est · Jan 5, 2018

What would be some solid performance metrics demonstrating the intrinsic value of CCW to fellow citizens??

Docster · Jan 5, 2018

Glaron said:
Police deliberately go to dangerous situations.

The typical isnt doing that.

Not a good way to compare.

Correct. The old statistical data error, False Equivalence – describing a situation of logical and apparent equivalence, when in fact there is none.

Concealed carriers neither go into dangerous situations routinely nor are they specifically targeted.
The OPs same logic would strongly argue against open carry as police do that as well.

Blacksmith101 · Jan 5, 2018

Number of people killed each year by illegal gun owners?

ShafTed · Jan 5, 2018

danb said:
Number of people shot by police over 1 year: 987

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...e-644am:homepage/story&utm_term=.f5edaf920814

Number of police (sworn personnel): about 800,000 (last survey available is 2008 though). https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=dcdetail&iid=249#Publications_and_products

Number of people shot by CCW holders: 1,119, since 2007, or about 120 per year. http://concealedcarrykillers.org/ VPC is an anti-gun .org so this is likely inflated (for example they include Navy Yard shooting here)

Number of CCW holders: about 1.7 million. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2814691 this is an understatement since some states are permitless carry now.

Police are 20x more likely to kill someone than a CCW holder. The police are also 2x more deadly than Baltimore thugs. The obvious conclusion: disarm the police and only residents should carry guns. At the very least, police should get the same training CCW holders do, I recommend Texas or Utah style class. /sarcasm

The # of carriers is off by a factor of 10. The link is from 2016, and has the # at 14.5 million. More recent data (sorry, don't have a link right now) is about 16.5 million nationwide. FL and PA alone have over 1 million each.

danb · Jan 5, 2018

ShafTed said:
The # of carriers is off by a factor of 10. The link is from 2016, and has the # at 14.5 million. More recent data (sorry, don't have a link right now) is about 16.5 million nationwide. FL and PA alone have over 1 million each.

Ahh, good catch! I took the increase in CCW holders, not the total.

Fredcohunter · Jan 5, 2018

CCW shooters vs. shootings by criminals in the course of a crime would be a better comparison.

rascal · Jan 5, 2018

Docster said:
Correct. The old statistical data error, False Equivalence – describing a situation of logical and apparent equivalence, when in fact there is none.

Concealed carriers neither go into dangerous situations routinely nor are they specifically targeted.
The OPs same logic would strongly argue against open carry as police do that as well.

I think you have this backwards. Concealed carriers could as easily be said to be in more dangerous situations and more likely to be specifically targeted than cops.

NCVS work, studies and interviews of violent offenders who have committed violent crime show they consistently pick the WEAKEST potential victims. Sure some people target cops, but while despicable, is statistically tiny portion of violent crime.

do you really think sexual offenders are more likely to pick female police officers than females in the general population? do you think a person who wants to mug someone and has the choice of a cop vs you or I walking down the street is going to pick the cop? Do you think an armed robber is going to decide to commit his robbery when two cops are getting their coffee in the 7-11 or when two civilians are?

Police are not violent crime victims more than the general public, but less than the general public. CCW/L holders appear to be, and are members of the general public.

I have a lot of respect for cops. It is a tough job. Cop hatred is a scourge. But the assertion they are more likely to be the victims of violent crime is not supported by the data. They mostly have uniforms, have more latitude in drawing and getting compliance with a drawn weapon than any CCL can do legally, and lots of ways to reduce violent crime attempts on them that the average citizen does not.

SCORES of peer reviewed studies show violent criminals pick victims who appear to them to be most vulnerable.

rascal · Jan 5, 2018

danb said:
Number of people shot by police over 1 year: 987

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inve...e-644am:homepage/story&utm_term=.f5edaf920814

Number of police (sworn personnel): about 800,000 (last survey available is 2008 though). https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=dcdetail&iid=249#Publications_and_products

Number of people shot by CCW holders: 1,119, since 2007, or about 120 per year. http://concealedcarrykillers.org/ VPC is an anti-gun .org so this is likely inflated (for example they include Navy Yard shooting here)

Number of CCW holders: about ~~1.7~~ 14.5 million. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2814691 this is an understatement since some states are permitless carry now.

Police are ~~20x~~ 200x more likely to kill someone than a CCW holder. The police are also 2x more deadly than Baltimore thugs. The obvious conclusion: disarm the police and only residents should carry guns. At the very least, police should get the same training CCW holders do, I recommend Texas or Utah style class. /sarcasm

ETA: updated with corrected numbers

What really matters is not CCL vs cops numbers; but CCL vs general population.

That data show CCL holders illegally kill at lower per capita rates than the general population, including people who don't even own guns, do. Probably at lower rates than members of "everytown for gun whatever" or "moms need action."

For that matter legal gun owners kill at lower rates than the general population does. IN DC of the thousands of murders committed by DC residents, not one has been committed by a legal gun owner since heller.

danb · Jan 5, 2018

rascal said:
CCL holders illegally kill at lower per capita rates than the general population, including people who don't even own guns, do. Probably at lower rates than members of "everytown for gun whatever" or "moms need action."

For that matter legal gun owners kill at lower rates than the general population does. IN DC of the thousands of murders committed by DC residents, not one has been committed by a legal gun owner since heller.

This is technically not true. The Navy Yard shooter for example, was a legal gun owner and Texas CCW and VA holder. He slipped through the mental health system. Also, the other CCW killer fro MD was LEO, who also slipped through the mental health system.

Most of my post was sarcasm, I am aware of valid arguments and comparisons, I just think sometimes we should play by anti rules and not let facts get in the way.

But to say "not one has been committed by a legal gun owner since heller" is vastly overstating the case and easy to disprove. People do slip through the system rarely.

swamplynx · Jan 5, 2018

danb said:
This is technically not true. The Navy Yard shooter for example, was a legal gun owner and Texas CCW and VA holder. He slipped through the mental health system. Also, the other CCW killer fro MD was LEO, who also slipped through the mental health system.

Most of my post was sarcasm, I am aware of valid arguments and comparisons, I just think sometimes we should play by anti rules and not let facts get in the way.

But to say "not one has been committed by a legal gun owner since heller" is vastly overstating the case and easy to disprove. People do slip through the system rarely.

What rascal meant was not one has been committed by a DC legal gun owner since Heller. Before the Navy Yard shooter went batshit he was already breaking DC law by bringing unregistered firearms into the District (as ******** of a law as that may be). Point being of the thousands of legal gun owners in DC, who go through all of the hoops to possess firearms in their homes or businesses, not one of them has been responsible for a single one of the thousands of murders in DC since Heller.

Not_an_outlaw · Jan 5, 2018

Docster said:
Correct. The old statistical data error, False Equivalence – describing a situation of logical and apparent equivalence, when in fact there is none.

Concealed carriers neither go into dangerous situations routinely nor are they specifically targeted.
The OPs same logic would strongly argue against open carry as police do that as well.

Concur. But if the opposition continues to compare apples and oranges (or bananas - CNN) maybe we can put them on the defensive.

FrankOceanXray · Jan 5, 2018

Wow. That math hurts my head. I think the conclusions drawn from it are.. well.. inconclusive.

clandestine · Jan 5, 2018

Using the O.P.'s logic MD is justified in denying permits since there are no self defense shootings from permit holders. Well that was the argument one of our recently departed said in so many words a few weeks ago.

See MD is so safe that people don't have to carry guns, because the ones that do never have to shoot anyone.

Therefore carrying guns is not reasonable.

Wow, those mental gymnastics hurt.

3paul10 · Jan 5, 2018

I don't see this as a useful comparison. Apples to oranges. How many lives are saved by a CCW holder? That's what's important.

Ack Ack · Jan 5, 2018

Glaron said:
Police deliberately go to dangerous situations.

The typical isnt doing that.

Not a good way to compare.

Correct, it isn't a fair comparison. The point, is that if we used statistical data, the same way that the anti's do, these are the conclusions we could draw.

CCW shooters vs police.

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