FINALLY - Hogans letter concerning HB1302

eruby said:

Latest Vegas odds released:

The odds are now lower on Hogan vetoing HB1302, and higher on eruby getting elected Pope.

Another round of emails sent.

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Don't know how. He's on record repeatedly in support of Red flag legislation. We'll see if a few hundred pestering him nonstop will break him. Ask one of his grown children if tantrums were a success.

Schipperke said:

Don't know how. He's on record repeatedly in support of Red flag legislation. We'll see if a few hundred pestering him nonstop will break him. Ask one of his grown children if tantrums were a success.

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"Pester?" "Tantrum?" "Ask one of his grown children?"

Lot of drama words there. We will be on the sidewalk tonight. You available to help with pushback for a veto?

Rack&Roll said:

"Pester?" "Tantrum?" "Ask one of his grown children?"

Lot of drama words there. We will be on the sidewalk tonight. You coming?

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Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Rack&Roll said:

We will be on the sidewalk tonight.

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Usual time? I’m seeking permission rather than forgiveness this time.


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Schipperke said:

We'll see if a few hundred pestering him nonstop will break him. Ask one of his grown children if tantrums were a success.

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Or backfire. At some point, aides and delegates become desensitized. It becomes harder to get their attention on the next issue.

danb said:

Or backfire. At some point, aides and delegates become desensitized. It becomes harder to get their attention on the next issue.

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Still better than sitting at home fuming silently, and more effective IMO.

Take the fight to them as you see fit. This isn't a single front war, we have to attack in as many ways as possible. Calling, emailing, sidewalk protests, they are all good points of attack. But let us not forget that until we can change the makeup of the MGA, we are going to be the underdogs. I am in the process of volunteering for a few of my representatives. If I can be of help, particularly on the 2A front, I will hope that I can make a difference. I am in constant contact with my representatives on at least a weekly basis. I also make calls and email the other representatives in other districts when a Bill is forwarded that effects the entire state. Do I do enough, probably not. Can I do enough, most definitely not. But every little bit helps.

Do what you can as often as you can. That's all I can ask.

Schipperke said:

Don't know how. He's on record repeatedly in support of Red flag legislation. We'll see if a few hundred pestering him nonstop will break him. Ask one of his grown children if tantrums were a success.

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danb said:

Or backfire. At some point, aides and delegates become desensitized. It becomes harder to get their attention on the next issue.

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Disagree with you both on this. The signs were not attacking Hogan, they were attacking the legislation asking for him to veto it. No visibility would be worse. Maybe Hogan or his staff don't notice the signs or protestors, but I very much doubt that it drives him/them to an antagonistic position. I also won't equate polite political protest to be akin to children pestering parents. It's an important part of our system of government, so much that it's a protected activity. In this instance, it comes from a motivated subset of the electorate that includes Hogan supporters. No matter how good Hogan's polling staff is, I doubt that they can calculate with much confidence how support of the red flag legislation will help/hurt him vs opposition to it come reelection time. If the governor's office was not getting correspondence or seeing folks holding signs in opposition to the bills, it would tell them that there is no political cost.

Although I'm not on the pavement with R&R and his compatriots, I won't denigrate them for it, or pooh pooh this last effort. The odds may be against them, but why encourage them to throw in the towel? Or mock them for it?

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fidelity said:

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ALWAYS the voice of reason, my friend.

YES, we will be under the Governor's windows at Lawyer's Mall TONIGHT at 7pm for another beautiful Spring evening in Annapolis.

Magic 8 Ballers, notwithstanding...

Join us, if you can, tonight for another Patriot Picket effort. We have plenty of signs.

And this bonus--the following folks can pick up their Patriot Picket holsters from me tonight:

Stoveman (2)
Notorious AOB
Gryphon
BoothDoc

fidelity said:

Disagree with you both on this. The signs were not attacking Hogan, they were attacking the legislation asking for him to veto it. No visibility would be worse. Maybe Hogan or his staff don't notice the signs or protestors, but I very much doubt that it drives him/them to an antagonistic position. I also won't equate polite political protest to be akin to children pestering parents. It's an important part of our system of government, so much that it's a protected activity. In this instance, it comes from a motivated subset of the electorate that includes Hogan supporters. No matter how good Hogan's polling staff is, I doubt that they can calculate with much confidence how support of the red flag legislation will help/hurt him vs opposition to it come reelection time. If the governor's office was not getting correspondence or seeing folks holding signs in opposition to the bills, it would tell them that there is no political cost.

Although I'm not on the pavement with R&R and his compatriots, I won't denigrate them for it, or pooh pooh this last effort. The odds may be against them, but why encourage them to throw in the towel? Or mock them for it?

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I did not say "antagonism" I said desensitization. When all the din becomes mere background noise. To be clear, I do not think all the calling, etc. has been in vain because the current version is a lot less stinky that prior iterations.

But at this point, any threats against Hogan's campaign are empty and his aides know it. Making empty threats is worse than making no threats and holding your powder, ask Barack "Mr Red Line" Obama. Hogan's re-election will be determined in MoCo, by holding down the loss margin. The "political cost" of signing this is non-existent at this point, unfortunately. Its truly appalling that the ACLU is silent on this, they seem to have fully succumbed to being a partisan hack organization.

For a deep dive into why the HB1302 VETO window could remain open well into next month, go here:

https://www.mdshooters.com/showthread.php?t=223044

danb said:

I did not say "antagonism" I said desensitization. When all the din becomes mere background noise. To be clear, I do not think all the calling, etc. has been in vain because the current version is a lot less stinky that prior iterations.

But at this point, any threats against Hogan's campaign are empty and his aides know it. Making empty threats is worse than making no threats and holding your powder, ask Barack "Mr Red Line" Obama. Hogan's re-election will be determined in MoCo, by holding down the loss margin. The "political cost" of signing this is non-existent at this point, unfortunately. Its truly appalling that the ACLU is silent on this, they seem to have fully succumbed to being a partisan hack organization.

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Answer me this: why do you keep posting repeatedly on MDS that the MD ACLU is appalling, but you don't call them?

You just keep posting here?

I get it, appalling. Can you pick up the phone? If we distribute the workload, we get more traction, right?

danb said:

I did not say "antagonism" I said desensitization. When all the din becomes mere background noise. ...

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I doubt this too. Politicians are nervous creatures when it comes to those that have supported them. More easy to ignore those outside your base. Hogan needs a coalition of voters to win re-election. It could be that this coalition will not need persons who become less motivated to go vote for him or encourage friends to do the same if he allows the red flag legislation to become MD law (and I admit that Trump hasn't helped us on this). But if even if a rotating bunch of guys continue to protest against the legislation for days before Hogan either signs, vetoes, or lets it become law without a signature, it signals that there might be voter intensity on the pro-2A side on these issues. No way do they get desensitized to it. It would be much easier for them if there weren't people dedicated holding signs asking the Governor to veto. If they let it pass, watch Hogan try to make excuses why he did so, etc and amends to supporters in the 2A community.

On a side note, if he is counseled to let the word out that he's the only game in town come November, he will bleed support in the community. Folks hold grudges, self-interests (or noses to imply a popular metaphor) be damned. This would be a better test of the point that you raise below.

danb said:

...But at this point, any threats against Hogan's campaign are empty and his aides know it. Making empty threats is worse than making no threats and holding your powder, ask Barack "Mr Red Line" Obama. Hogan's re-election will be determined in MoCo, by holding down the loss margin. The "political cost" of signing this is non-existent at this point, unfortunately. Its truly appalling that the ACLU is silent on this, they seem to have fully succumbed to being a partisan hack organization.

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No threats on the signs against Hogan's re-election run used in the protests. Is the reference to moderating what one says on MDS? I'll guess it isn't. So possibly directed at emails people send? I think it's perfectly fine for voters to speak their minds. This isn't the leader of the country making a statement (poor analogy); it's voters giving feedback to elected officials.

If Hogan wins re-election, it's because more people in MD vote for him because they're happy of his stewardship of the local economy and standing against increased taxes. If he was a strong Trump supporter, the other side might get people to turn out to vote against him.

With the red flag bill, he's not picking up liberal voters by letting it pass. Sure, he's hoping that he doesn't encourage people opposed to him to show up to vote that otherwise would stay home, but I doubt this is a big segment. These people for it are showing up to vote against him no matter what. Likewise he's hoping that he still has a lock on enough in the 2A community (by making empty, back channel promises to "do more" after re-election) that he won't bleed supporters. Should he let red flag pass and is reelected, he'll continue supporting 2A issues as he has in the past (by doing the minimus). He won't be running for re-election for governor in MD anyway.

I think Hogan excels at appearing judicious and cautious, standing against the more immediate and extreme impulses from both sides of the political aisle. I think he can easily say that I'm passing the bump stock ban, but you guys in the legislature need to send me a better bill that protects due process - and will come off as the moderate that he is.








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Bump to invite folks to keep the VETO train on the tracks.

7pm, Lawyer's Mall, and we've got the sign stack.

fidelity said:

I think Hogan excels at appearing judicious and cautious, standing against the more immediate and extreme impulses from both sides of the political aisle.

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hmmm, so you are saying standing against more extreme impulses might be a badge of courage?? Hmmm.

fidelity said:

I think he can easily say that I'm passing the bump stock ban, but you guys in the legislature need to send me a better bill that protects due process - and will come off as the moderate that he is.

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It is politically easier for Hogan to do the opposite: veto the bump stock ban and sign this red flag bill, because the ATF already promulgated rules that ban bump stocks. He can blame the ban on Trump, and also claim the Maryland red flag bill has more due process protections than Trump's "Get the Guns First" plan.

Genius! You and Skipperke should have a Magic 8 Ball Party with...yum....Tastycakes!

Unless you'll be helping at 7.....

danb said:

hmmm, so you are saying standing against more extreme impulses might be a badge of courage?? Hmmm.
...

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Yes, it's hard to be a moderate in a partisan political environment.

danb said:

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It is politically easier for Hogan to do the opposite: veto the bump stock ban and sign this red flag bill, because the ATF already promulgated rules that ban bump stocks. He can blame the ban on Trump, and also claim the Maryland red flag bill has more due process protections than Trump's "Get the Guns First" plan.

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First, to be clear, it think bump stock bans are both stupid and they create a terrible precedence. However I think they're politically easier to enact as politicians can point to having done something, and in their mind, not have enraged members of the larger 2A community that will work to see them unseated. In comparison, legislation that permits gun confiscations by the government based on accusations that can't be addressed by the accused really gets to the heart of what many firearms owners fear.

Don't even need to ask Hogan, ask Zirkin. Zirkin was clearly bothered by the due process issues that the red flag bill creates. I bet he's uncomfortable with them now, but followed the party line.

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fidelity said:

Yes, it's hard to be a moderate in a partisan political environment.



First, to be clear, it think bump stock bans are both stupid and they create a terrible precedence. However I think they're politically easier to enact as politicians can point to having done something, and in their mind, not have enraged members of the larger 2A community that will work to see them unseated. In comparison, legislation that permits gun confiscations by the government based on accusations that can't be addressed by the accused really gets to the heart of what many firearms owners fear.

Don't even need to ask Hogan, ask Zirkin. Zirkin was clearly bothered by the due process issues that the red flag bill creates. I bet he's uncomfortable with them now, but followed the party line.

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Zirkin has no R competition but he's being primaried. Miller's shot across the bow.

Great outing tonight for our Happy Warriors as we continue our efforts to get in front of Governor Hogan with our VETO message.

Thanks to (left to right below) SMKranz, Mike, Bob A and Derek for joining in for what turned out to be an interesting evening.

After we had been there for almost an hour one of the big black SUVs pulled out and left the Governor’s mansion.

All of us moved around to the driveway gate where an MSP security guy told us to stand back, waaaay back kind of obsessively. It was apparent the SUV left with no one onboard so our group guess was that MSP was going out to pick up the Governor from dinner or they were making a run to bring back take-out food.

Our suspicions were correct as the SUV returned about 10 minutes later. We were right about the take-out food because we could see the lady MSP trooper carrying a large restaurant take-out bag back into the Governor’s mansion.

Yes, it may sound far-fetched but it is possible that the Governor may have had plans to go out to eat with his wife... but knowing that we were out there he ordered takeout instead to avoid having to deal with us. That’s our story and we’re stickin’ to it.

Either way we’re quite confident our VETO messaging got into the mansion tonight, so that’s a win!