A Lot of Guns Being Bought

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  • Blacksmith101

    Grumpy Old Man
    Jun 22, 2012
    22,154
    The numbers are in for July 2021 and it looks like the gun buying may be slowing somewhat the number is down for the same month last year but still ahead of the previous year.

    NICS Checks for July 2021 2,882,676
    NICS Checks for July 2020 3,639,224
    NICS Checks for July 2019 2,030,661

    Sub total for 2021 January through July 25,125,896
    The year end total for 2020 January through December was 39,695,315

    And the total number of NICS Checks since the program started in November 1998 through July 2021 was 397,825,277

    By my rule of thumb conversion of NICS Checks to firearm sales the grand total represents about 200,000,000 new and imported firearm sales. Which would represent an increase in the total number of firearms in private hands.

    Hopefully the slowing will mean ammunition availability will increase soon.

    Last month is the first month to drop below 3,000,000 NICS Checks in the last 9 months and you need to go back 16 months to find a month that had a lower monthly total. Remember it took 14 years before a month exceeded 2,000,000 Checks.
     
    Last edited:

    Bob A

    όυ φροντισ
    MDS Supporter
    Patriot Picket
    Nov 11, 2009
    30,687
    Market getting saturated. It'll pick up again during peaceful rioting for the 2022 elections.
     

    Blacksmith101

    Grumpy Old Man
    Jun 22, 2012
    22,154
    The Numbers are in for August

    The numbers for August show a continued cooling but still respectable 2,715,223 NICS Checks preformed. The number for August is down from last years record setting 3,115,063 but was still greater than any other August total since NICS inception.

    The sub total for the January through August period is a solid 27,841,119 year to date with still 4 months remaining in the year. And the total NICS Checks number since the program began in 1998 was 400,540,500.
     

    JMangle

    Handsome Engineer
    May 11, 2008
    816
    Mississippi
    The numbers for August show a continued cooling but still respectable 2,715,223 NICS Checks preformed. The number for August is down from last years record setting 3,115,063 but was still greater than any other August total since NICS inception.

    The sub total for the January through August period is a solid 27,841,119 year to date with still 4 months remaining in the year. And the total NICS Checks number since the program began in 1998 was 400,540,500.

    So 7% of all NICS checks over roughly 23 years were sold thus far this year alone.
    Through August is about 2/3 of the year, so that 7% is more like 10.5% of NICS checks over about 4.3% of time.

    Over double, close to 2.5x, not as good as I expected, but pretty darn good - especially because in states like mine, I don't think we count because we can buy with our Carry permits. I don't think that was the case back in '98.

    Maybe what matters more is, and this is just my perception, that guns these days are purchased for protection, not for sport - AR-15 being the most common by many metrics.
     

    Blacksmith101

    Grumpy Old Man
    Jun 22, 2012
    22,154
    So 7% of all NICS checks over roughly 23 years were sold thus far this year alone.
    Through August is about 2/3 of the year, so that 7% is more like 10.5% of NICS checks over about 4.3% of time.

    Over double, close to 2.5x, not as good as I expected, but pretty darn good - especially because in states like mine, I don't think we count because we can buy with our Carry permits. I don't think that was the case back in '98.

    Maybe what matters more is, and this is just my perception, that guns these days are purchased for protection, not for sport - AR-15 being the most common by many metrics.

    Since you like crunching numbers here is the NICS by month since inception:
    https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view

    And there are lots of other Reports & Statistics here:
    https://www.fbi.gov/services/cjis/nics
     

    JMangle

    Handsome Engineer
    May 11, 2008
    816
    Mississippi
    Since you like crunching numbers here is the NICS by month since inception:
    https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view

    And there are lots of other Reports & Statistics here:
    https://www.fbi.gov/services/cjis/nics

    I absolutely do *not* like crunching numbers - that's why they have to pay me!

    I find it particularly interesting that there is almost no way to accurate tally firearm sales or how many are in existence - sure, the manufacturers know how many they've built, and I suppose they have to report it to the "AFT" [sic], but not only does that not include the massive numbers of home-built guns ... well, I just don't know enough about these things to know how many firearms exist that simply were never tracked.

    I'm not saying I own any, but there are assuredly millions of war-zone bring-backs, not to mention firearms that are old enough that they were never serialized. I'll admit to at least shooting some of these 'undocumented' firearms, and based on that experience, I don't discount the quality of a WWII firearm or a revolver close to three times my age.

    And on the topic of home-built guns, from my personal experience over a reasonably short life, the popularity of this method of firearm production has grown from near zero to almost ubiquitous. Every 'gun-guy' I work with has built at least one, and with 3D printing, just about every 3D printer I know has built one - 'gun-guy' or not. There are a lot of techno-nerd millennials that only own weapons that they 3D printed for the fun of it.

    Firearms demonstrate, represent, and ensure freedom - and I'd say firearms that no one knows about do that better than anything with a serial number. It's a right - and rights *must* go unquestioned. I don't have to declare my religion.

    One final note to anyone with a 3D printer - make sure if you're printing firearms, you do so with a 3D printer you personally own. Not a friend's, not a business's (even it/especially if you own the business)! You are still allowed to make your own firearms, as we have been since the beginning, but that's a right of the Individual, not of a Business. Seeeeeerious legal implications.
     

    Growler215

    Ultimate Member
    Dec 30, 2020
    2,156
    SOMD
    I don't know how so many people bought guns last year. Most of the year everyplace I looked was out of almost everything except bolt action deer rifles. Even online.

    OK, I bought 6, but 3 of those were in the first couple of months of 2020 before there was any panic. The other 3 took a lot of work to track down.

    This year supply has been somewhat better, but there are still a number of firearms that can't be found outside of paying well above MSRP on gunbroker.
     

    Biggfoot44

    Ultimate Member
    Aug 2, 2009
    32,877
    1. Those records only date back to 1968 .

    2. NICS numbers don't account for used firearms , either long time previously held , or newer ones traded in after short time. Nor for private sales in most of Free America .
     

    Blacksmith101

    Grumpy Old Man
    Jun 22, 2012
    22,154
    1. Those records only date back to 1968 .

    2. NICS numbers don't account for used firearms , either long time previously held , or newer ones traded in after short time. Nor for private sales in most of Free America .

    They are the only records available.

    If the interest is in total number of firearms in circulation, resales don't add additional arms to the total just a change of ownership.

    The NICS numbers help because the Firearms Commerce numbers are two years behind. If you compare previous NICS numbers to previous years production of new guns numbers you can derive a factor of how many NICS checks represent new firearm sales. It is approximately two NICS Checks equals one new firearm so about one half of the NICS checks are additional firearms.

    What we don't know is how many are lost in boating accidents.
     

    Allen65

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Jun 29, 2013
    7,063
    Anne Arundel County
    J I don't know anyone who has made their own barrels.[/QUOTE said:
    Probably not many. Making a rifled barrel (especially rifle length, pistol isn't quite as hard) with the tolerances necessary for modern jacketed smokeless ammo requires very specialized equipment, or very high machinist skill with somewhat less specialized gear, and lots of free time.

    Here's a video of someone who built his own button rifling press:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nq2Bc2WDsLA
     

    Blacksmith101

    Grumpy Old Man
    Jun 22, 2012
    22,154
    The Numbers are in for September.

    It appears that the panic buying is over at least for now.

    The total NICS checks for September 2021 are 2,626,389 which is down from last month August which was 2,715,223 and down from a year ago when September 2020 was 2,892,115.

    Hopefully the prices will settle down to something closer to normal before Biden's inflation gets into full swing.

    Year to date total through September is 30,467,508.

    Link to the full report:
    https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view
     

    baberuth

    Babe Ruth
    Sep 1, 2013
    16
    Baltimore County
    Thanks for sharing that FBI link, pretty interesting NCIS Firearm Bkg Chart, never saw before. In 2021 the US is at record 30,467,508 NCIS Checks for firearm purchases thru September. While decreasing in number from high of 4,317,804 in Jan 2021 high, Sept is still 10th highest sales ever since 1998 started recording. I want as many people as possible to buy firearms and ammunition to counter anti-gun lobby / 2nd amendment people. Meanwhile DHS / CBP say AT LEAST 2,000 illegal firearms are coming thru open Mexican border daily since Jan 2020 - that is 913,000 illegal guns in US from just Mexican border source alone! ATF estimates now 385 Million LEGAL guns owned by 1/3 US population with well over a Trillion rounds of ammunition owned. We still need more Gun owners to speak up on crazy legislation at State and National levels against LEGAL gun ownership. If the 385 Million LEGAL Firearm owners were the problem - the anti-gunners would certainly know it! Power in numbers!!!
     

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