What are our chances, realistically?

Rabu Rabu · Apr 5, 2013

I'm curious as to what our chances are of getting this turned over, weather it be referendum or court, realistically what can we expect? If it goes to court can we get a 100% flip? or will certain aspects stick?

I have all hope in our leaders in this issue, and I have no doubt they'll guide us properly, but I'm curious as to what everyone else's feelings on this are. I'm seeing a lot of "No Hope" folks out there, fortunately I'm not giving up, I'm just a bit lacking in faith here. I'm sure once MSI and SAF come out with statement on what our next move is we're to focus on 2014 and buying whatever we can before October? I'd like to think that's not all I can be doing now...

Anyway, plans discussion, and coping/re-inforcement thread.

cantonglocker · Apr 5, 2013

realistically almost 0

erwos · Apr 5, 2013

cantonglocker said:
realistically almost 0

To be fair, some specific parts of the bill are more vulnerable than others. The licensing scheme is vulnerable. Banning AR-15s is vulnerable. The OAL limit might be considered vulnerable.

But anyone hoping for a blanket overturn or injunction... I wouldn't hold my breath if I was them.

cantonglocker · Apr 5, 2013

erwos said:
To be fair, some specific parts of the bill are more vulnerable than others. The licensing scheme is vulnerable. Banning AR-15s is vulnerable. The OAL limit might be considered vulnerable.

But anyone hoping for a blanket overturn or injunction... I wouldn't hold my breath if I was them.

all those things are alive in other states. The only think that may work is if it takes too long to process a licence which could then be argued as a defacto ban.

Bravo757 · Apr 5, 2013

Lets keep in mind we're not in opposition with "democrats" a real democrat is self reliant and hard working. This new bread of people with their hand out and looking for every opportunity to excuse themselves from self-imposed accountability and whats more expecting someone to pay for what they want - is not a democrat - they're just hiding behind that title.

In other words don't be angry and upset with the real democrats out there today. Understand the real enemy are the lies, deceits and the people that spread them -these people are simply shameful regardless of what box is check on their voter registration card.

As to the legal steps we need to take - it may have to come to the same situation that happened with the Supreme Court ruling on the D.C. gun "control" laws. In other words we'll have to sue to get our rights back by showing cause that our constitutionally "Protected" right had been violated - good point cantonglocker about a process taking to long can at least be argued to be a defacto ban. I believe there are other points that the State will not be able to deliver in their defined time-frame what they have required of themselves.

ShallNotInfringe · Apr 5, 2013

Rabu Rabu said:
I'm curious as to what our chances are of getting this turned over, weather it be referendum or court, realistically what can we expect? If it goes to court can we get a 100% flip? or will certain aspects stick?

I have all hope in our leaders in this issue, and I have no doubt they'll guide us properly, but I'm curious as to what everyone else's feelings on this are. I'm seeing a lot of "No Hope" folks out there, fortunately I'm not giving up, I'm just a bit lacking in faith here. I'm sure once MSI and SAF come out with statement on what our next move is we're to focus on 2014 and buying whatever we can before October? I'd like to think that's not all I can be doing now...

Anyway, plans discussion, and coping/re-inforcement thread.

About as likely to overturn this with a referendum as randomly walking in to your local WalMart and finding the shelves stocked with ammunition.

Rabu Rabu · Apr 5, 2013

ShallNotInfringe said:
About as likely to overturn this with a referendum as randomly walking in to your local WalMart and finding the shelves stocked with ammunition.

Guess we've got a 50-50 chance then eh?

Brooklyn · Apr 5, 2013

cantonglocker said:
all those things are alive in other states. The only think that may work is if it takes too long to process a licence which could then be argued as a defacto ban.

Look not challenged does not mean upheld.

If you do not know the answer do not answer.

There are real pros here( and I am not one) who may or may not be willing to discuss this publicly.

All else is useless speculation..

bpSchoch · Apr 5, 2013

If most don't realize that we can get this overturned, then most won't put any energy in what's required to get it done. We should all be putting in the energy to getting it done. The liberals will do everything possible to convince you that it's futile. This is no different than a war, each side tries to convince the other side that it's futile to do battle.

I believe that a big part of this is doing outreach to increase our numbers (at first just getting new people into having fun shooting).
http://www.mdshooters.com/showthread.php?t=113677

ShallNotInfringe · Apr 5, 2013

Rabu Rabu said:
Guess we've got a 50-50 chance then eh?

Where do you live? I am camping in your backyard

Can't remember the last time my WalMart ammo shelves didn't look like it was a ravaged grocery store just before/after a hurricane.

IMBLITZVT · Apr 5, 2013

Bravo757 said:
Lets keep in mind we're not in opposition with "democrats" a real democrat is self reliant and hard working. ....other words don't be angry and upset with the real democrats out there today....

HA! You are living in the past! The Dixiecrats are gone, never to come again. Real hard working democrats, now call themselves Republicans. Thats why those who are actually conservative like me, no long call ourselves Republicans, because they are a bunch of ex-Democrats.

If you were placing real money on it, I could not put money down on any of it actually getting overturned anytime soon, without major unforeseen events...

Rabu Rabu · Apr 5, 2013

ShallNotInfringe said:
Where do you live? I am camping in your backyard

Can't remember the last time my WalMart ammo shelves didn't look like it was a ravaged grocery store just before/after a hurricane.

Cambridge having a newly reworked store seems to always have what I'm looking for, even get Tulammo for my AK every now and then, last I went there was Winchester 5.56, but that's not been for a week or so now.

ShoreShooter · Apr 5, 2013

Bravo757 said:
Lets keep in mind we're not in opposition with "democrats" a real democrat is self reliant and hard working. This new bread of people with their hand out and looking for every opportunity to excuse themselves from self-imposed accountability and whats more expecting someone to pay for what they want - is not a democrat - they're just hiding behind that title.

In other words don't be angry and upset with the real democrats out there today. Understand the real enemy are the lies, deceits and the people that spread them -these people are simply shameful regardless of what box is check on their voter registration card.

Respectfully, you are speaking with fondness of a memory of years long past. It may be the party once was as you describe, but it ceased being that way decades ago. They left you behind while you were not paying attention.

ShoreShooter · Apr 5, 2013

Rabu Rabu said:
I'm curious as to what our chances are of getting this turned over, weather it be referendum or court, realistically what can we expect? If it goes to court can we get a 100% flip? or will certain aspects stick?

I have all hope in our leaders in this issue, and I have no doubt they'll guide us properly, but I'm curious as to what everyone else's feelings on this are. I'm seeing a lot of "No Hope" folks out there, fortunately I'm not giving up, I'm just a bit lacking in faith here. I'm sure once MSI and SAF come out with statement on what our next move is we're to focus on 2014 and buying whatever we can before October? I'd like to think that's not all I can be doing now...

Anyway, plans discussion, and coping/re-inforcement thread.

Portions of the bill may well be overturned. That will take years for a case to wind it's way through court.

To pass fresh legislation that repeals or amends sensibly any portion of this will require a very different set of legislators. You ask for realism: it will take more than one election cycle. If things go perfectly in 2014 we can make progress but not enough to change the state.

ShallNotInfringe · Apr 5, 2013

Rabu Rabu said:
Cambridge having a newly reworked store seems to always have what I'm looking for, even get Tulammo for my AK every now and then, last I went there was Winchester 5.56, but that's not been for a week or so now.

Wow, sounds like a trip over to the Eastern shore is in order, hmmmm?

Here in Howard County, it's bad!

TxAggie · Apr 5, 2013

cantonglocker said:
realistically almost 0

I completely disagree. At least some or all is certain to be overturned in the courts. Also, don't discount the referendum or compare it to previous ones. I've already spoken to several friends and family that didn't know enough about the previous referendums to vote on them, and they are already committed to vote against this bill.

We HAVE a chance. With a referendum we have 1.5 years to work the public.

We've put this much into it, I don't plan on stopping now, and I personally look more forward to this next phase than I did in dealing with MD Politicians.

Mooseman · Apr 5, 2013

I would offer my opinion but I don't want to be negative.

Brooklyn · Apr 5, 2013

ShoreShooter said:
Portions of the bill may well be overturned. That will take years for a case to wind it's way through court.

To pass fresh legislation that repeals or amends sensibly any portion of this will require a very different set of legislators. You ask for realism: it will take more than one election cycle. If things go perfectly in 2014 we can make progress but not enough to change the state.

I will take years to reverse the trends in Md yes.

But the court may move faster than you think given the number of cases and the existing slit in the circuits.

If guns were Md only issue, that would be one thing, but Md needs a functional government and that means we go to work.

The dems are vulnerable on many issues.. so we go to work.

erwos · Apr 5, 2013

cantonglocker said:
all those things are alive in other states.

All of those things were legislated pre-Heller and pre-McDonald. Totally different judicial playing field.

Schwabe · Apr 5, 2013

cantonglocker said:
realistically almost 0

To get it reversed .... this above.

If and it makes it to SCOTUS it will be about one provision. Then the house/senate will change the wording on that one thing or replace it with two different ones and you have to start the litigating process all over again.

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What are our chances, realistically?

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