A Lot of Guns Being Bought

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    Virgil Co.C

    Active Member
    Aug 10, 2018
    615
    Was delayed once on a DD 308. Have bought stuff afterwards and went right through. Thinking delay on any AR style is now common practice . Was told once you where delayed you will always be delayed but that was not my case.
     
    Pinecone

    Pinecone

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Feb 4, 2013
    28,175
    DaemonAssassin said:
    Honestly I think the 800 million mark is very close or has already been broken. There are some people that will buy 2+ firearms on a 4473, so lets average it out as 3 per 4473. At 3 per 4473, there are 1,050,000 firearms in America. At 2 per 4473, it is still 700,000 firearms in America.

    A friend asked me how many guns I owned. I looked at him and said he didn't want to hear the answer to that question. The actual number that I own is nobody's business by mine and Mrs. DA's.
    Click to expand...

    While there are some that buy two or more at once, I think that is a very small number. I would suspect the average per NICS is barely over 1.

    But the big deal is, all the firearms sold prior to 1993 and the NICS check. And even the MD regulated firearms that were sold with a 77, but probably not counted in the NICS number.

    And there are also states that sell to permit holders without the NICS check.
     
    Pinecone

    Pinecone

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Feb 4, 2013
    28,175
    Blacksmith101 said:
    For the data junkies here is the 2019 Firearms Commerce in the United States Annual Statistics:
    Latest data is from 2017 (report includes data from 1986)
    8,327,792 manufactured
    488,300 exported
    4,492,256 imported
    Net increase 12,331,748 in 2017. Down from a net increase in 2016 of 16,258,394 additional guns in the US.

    Link to the report:
    https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/2019-firearms-commerce-report/download
    Click to expand...

    Looking back, that report only goes back to 1986, but for the period 1986 - 1992 (pre-NICS), here is the net new firearms in the US

    1986 - 3,524,487
    1987 - 4,445,131
    1988 - 4,982,963
    1989 - 5,164,892
    1990 - 4,442,152
    1991 - 3,882,598
    1992 - 6,618,755

    For a total of 32,950,977 for 7 years.

    And if we just say, go back to 1900, that is likely to be close to 300,000,000 firearms sold before NICS. Not including military firearms (both ours and the other side bring backs).
     
    shadow116

    shadow116

    2nd Class Citizen
    Feb 28, 2008
    1,542
    Emmitsburg
    Virgil Co.C said:
    Was delayed once on a DD 308. Have bought stuff afterwards and went right through. Thinking delay on any AR style is now common practice . Was told once you where delayed you will always be delayed but that was not my case.
    Click to expand...

    When submitting a 4473, no information on the firearm is submitted. The NICS check would not know a single shot .22 from a AR pattern rifle.

    Later when the ATF examiner is going though an FFL's archived 4473s, only then will they know what that 4473 was used to transfer.
     
    B

    Blacksmith101

    Grumpy Old Man
    Jun 22, 2012
    22,265
    July's total is now posted.
    https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view

    3,639,224 NICS checks in July 2020.

    For a total so far year to date of 22,818,271 so in just seven months there have been more checks than were made the entire year for the first 17 years, 1998 -2014, of the program. We are probably going to surpass last years total (28,369,750 the highest annual total) sometime in September.
     
    B

    Blacksmith101

    Grumpy Old Man
    Jun 22, 2012
    22,265
    Figures don't lie but.....

    The bottom of the NICS report specifically says that the number of NICS checks reported does NOT represent the the number of firearms sold.
    NICS Firearm Checks: Month/Year
    https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view

    Another government report does report the total number of firearms made (not counting home built) and the numbers imported and exported.
    Firearms Commerce In The United States Annual Statistical Update
    https://www.atf.gov/firearms/docs/report/2019-firearms-commerce-report/download

    Now if we take the total NICS check numbers and divide them by the total net firearms increase (total made plus total imported less total exports) for the two most recent years reported we should get an indication of the number of NICS checks per net firearms increase.

    2016
    27,538,673 NICS checks
    16,258,394 additional guns
    = 1.69381 NICS checks per additional firearm

    2017
    25,235,215 NICS checks
    12,331,748 additional guns
    = 2.04636 NICS checks per additional firearm

    So if we use the more conservative number of 2 NICS checks per firearm then since the start of the NICS check program in 1998 we have added about
    177,911,668.5 firearms less any that were destroyed or lost in boating accidents.

    Total NICS checks 1998 - July 2020 = 355,823,337 divided by 2 NICS checks per firearm = 177,911,668.5

    In other words during the 261 months the NICS program has been working we have added an average of 681,654 additional firearms per month to the total inventory. And for the first 7 months in 2020 we have added an average of 1,629,948 additional firearms per month.

    I think I hear liberal heads exploding.
     
    B

    Blacksmith101

    Grumpy Old Man
    Jun 22, 2012
    22,265
    The NICS check numbers are in for August 3,115,063 which is down a little from July.
    https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view

    I suspect from the anecdotal stories we hear that some of the drop may be attributed to a lack of supply and to the increased prices. Guns stores are sold out.

    Still so far this year, eight months, the total number of checks (25,934,334) has already surpassed the yearly totals for every year since the inception of the NICS check in 1998 except for 2016, 2018, and 2019. This year is on track to set a new record.

    Of course NICS checks do not equal firearm sales on a one for one basis because NICS checks are conducted for other purposes besides firearm purchases such as concealed carry permits. I did find another source for estimates of firearm purchase volume. Fox Business had a report this morning and referenced numbers from Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting so I Googled them.

    Here is their web site:
    https://smallarmsanalytics.com/

    Their description of themselves from the web site:
    Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting is a research consultancy focusing on the business and economics of the global small arms and ammunition markets. Politically unaffiliated, we are an independent, evidenced-based resource for industry, advocacy, research, and policymaking alike, as well as for financial analysts and members of the media. We are well-experienced in survey design, administration, and analysis and possess unique and sophisticated abilities in sourcing and understanding raw data and conducting statistical analyses and market forecasting – for the U.S. right down to monthly state-level firearms demand forecasts by weapons type.
    Click to expand...

    And a press release from them regarding August sales:
    https://smallarmsanalytics.com/v1/pr/2020-09-01.pdf

    Interestingly the second chart included in the press release includes an estimate that the cumlative total firearms sales, which would include both new purchases and resales, from 2000 through August 2020 is over 110 million.

    So much for the anti gun argument/lies that guns are a declining remnant of the past that should become extinct like the dinosaurs.

    A final mention of Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting, they have an index of articles where they or their data appears with live links to the stories. Looks like a good resource for further reading on the subject. Here is a link:
    https://smallarmsanalytics.com/saaf-in-the-news/
     
    Darkemp

    Darkemp

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Aug 18, 2009
    7,811
    Marylandistan

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    1911msc

    Member
    May 12, 2020
    18
    North San Diego
    I had told my wife I wouldn't buy any more guns. It's true that 1/2 ton safe is full, but I couldn't help it and bought a Ruger PC9 the other day. I figure in stead of safe I'll carry it in backpack. Just kidding, but if in Portland, Kenosha, Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit,(fill in City) it might be the way to go.
     
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